Refusing to plan because of high uncertainty … is lazy, is doomed, is resignation, pessimism.

My dad is very wise and careful voicing his opinions. I don’t remember the exact words of my dad but he did suggest that I was analyzing too much too far ahead. (He knows I plan to retire in my 70’s or 80’s.)

However, I disagreed every time he told me that. I feel things can change unexpectedly. I might have to go back to Singapore in my late 50’s and enter semi-retirement. There’s no guarantee that I will be able to earn a salary till 65. Crashes and asset devaluations happened many times…

Therefore, I feel my fact-finding, discussions, blogging… about personal retirement, centered around several focused questions, are actually useful. These focused efforts help me shift focus from day-to-day working, home maintenance, parenting, self-improvement … and think deeper about something 15 years out.

Without a conscious effort there’s insufficient clarity in our planning. I think my dad basically discounts that clarity. I guess he feels there’s too much uncertainty ahead – unknowable unknowns. “Don’t waste time trying to achieve clarity about the unknowable.” I disagree. The retirement research I did 5 years ago has an impact on my current thinking. My retirement discussions affect my housing decisions, my plan to save up for college education, my immigration plans, and my current saving rate. My perception (analysis, observation..) steers me towards passive income rather than windfall.

Here’s another example. I have read in several sources — the conventional wisdom says during retirement, one needs 70% of previous working income, but retirement phase of one’s life can be age 60 to 90. How the hell can a regular person amass enough asset by age 60, to provide 70% of current income over 30 years? Impossibly hard and depressing. My own research shows these figures are way overblown, perhaps by 10 folds. I think my wife and me only need something like USD 1000/M to retire comfortably in Malaysia, or USD 2000/M in Singapore.

Overall, I think the clarity in planning increases our confidence in our forecasts and estimates. It takes effort, not a wasted effort.