[14]eqMufu: long-term +ve trend: U.S.only

Posted on by tiger40490 rendered_on [ Thu, 6 Mar 2025 ] 19:19 UTC

Even though worst trough is much better in SP500 than other regional markets, and the long-term strength is more evident in the U.S, I would still say that other eq markets have long-term positive trends.

Warning — longTermStrength is widely used but ambiguous, compared to other concepts like worstTrough, durability@appreciation, marketReturn etc. As such it is an inferior focus for my blog.

Q: in my FSM portfolio, should I increase my US eq exposure ?

My past mufu investments were largely equity-centric. I never held a mufu beyond 7 years. The following personal experiences (despite the books I read) completely reshaped my view —
* any security I invest in, tends to show zero uptrend zero downtrend.
** Even if there’s some trend, it’s always dwarfed by the noise.
* equity market is heavily manipulated by big players, so I sometimes feel there can’t be any uptrend.
* bonds do show a bit of (rather low) uptrend but has non-trivial volatility

I also learned to dismiss the “advice” of various poorly trained Singapore financial advisors that “over 3 to 5 years this unit trust should make money”. Therefore the only safe “investment” is bank deposit.

About 1/4 to 1/2 of my mufu investments remain underwater after many years, and I often lose hope and liquidate. Now I think that’s all based on an incorrect view. Now I feel over a longer horizon like 10, 15, 20 years (retirement planning), US equity market do show an uptrend, as shown in historical performance.

Q: what if there’s a crisis like 2008. There are indeed big corrections every 5 years or so in equities — indisputable.
A: now I feel still the 15Y return is positive! Even if the drop in the final year is 30%, the previous years’ gains should exceed that — only on the US market.
** Japan, Europe … seem to be much worse — all gains could be wiped out in the last year.

Q: how about outside the US?
A: I feel the uptrend is evident in historical data from US market only. Japan, Europe and EM are not so clear.