Wallace is convinced that U.S. property appreciation cycle is visible and partially predictable. He also recognized China big cities follow no such cycle.

Wallace perceives buyer demand is largely determined by afford-ability of deposit + installment. Installment burden is controlled by mtg size and mtg rate.

To see the trend for a given property, look at the 2011-2013 trough and the 2007 peak.

Wallace feels mtg rate is rising in 2019, so valuation is very likely to drop across the country, not only in JC/Hoboken.

I feel Wallace is influenced by the Jersey City appreciations. I feel Bayonne is slightly different.

I feel there are bargains at any any time, but I agree that in a down turn there are more and better bargains. So I am grateful to Wallace.

Q: depreciation hurting current income?
A: I told Wallace that at my age, current income is more important than appreciation. If I’m unlucky to buy at a peak and don’t see any appreciation in the next N years, I will focus on current income. My core belief — rental income seldom drops even in a down market, and Wallace didn’t object. I believe rental income is affected Only by location + other factors listed in 43R model top 2 factors.

Same applies to my BGC property.