Spoke to Tricia, a JC/Bayonne mortgage consultant and former realtor.

Tricia (immediately, unconditionally) agrees with Brian’s view that most locations in the U.S. have no long-term appreciation but Jersey City is one of the exceptions.

She bought in Bergen-Lafayette long ago. Bergen-Lafayette has risen only since 2013, driving many people out to more affordable locations like Bayonne.

She said Bayonne has risen too, but no big hurry to buy. I felt reassured.

She singled out one defining moment — 2008 most U.S. residential markets declined by 20% but only 9% in NYC/JC, thanks to the special “status”.

She stressed repeatedly “It depends on the property” (she didn’t say “location” !)

I asked why Bayonne psf is so much cheaper than JC. She gave 3 reasons:

• Bayonne is more “residential” with less attractive connectivity like light rail
  • I think the “urban” of JC is demarcated by connectivity features like subway
• Property tax
• flooding — I guess it’s perception, reputation and risk

I felt reassured that Bayonne “suffers” from those unfavorable perceptions, which will keep appreciation in check.