[17] cashflow for106k 2nd BridgeRetail

See the spreadsheet for the number details. I face up to $80~90k of shortfall.

  • base plan — If I liquidate the unit trusts at an unfavorable time, I can get some 50k, but still I need to source additional 30k.
  • base plan — convert all surplus SGD (if any) for a few months. Leave S$10k working capital for the family. See Oanda note below on removing FX risk
  • base plan — be aggressive on withholding tax. Plan on negative tax refund.
  • base plan — leave just USD 3k working capital for myself
  • base plan — borrow temporarily from parents in SGD and convert to USD. See notes on Oanda.

The guaranteed rental income would offset some of the above forced losses. So let’s establish the base plan and make it a comfortable base plan, or at least tolerable, not painful like a toothache. On top of the base plan, it’s always reassuring and useful to have more contingency plans, even if they are messy, expensive, and involve premature liquidation.

  • backup — early withdrawal of 401k and pay 10% penalty tax. Kind of “free” money and OK to take out.
  • backup — personal loan
  • backup — mortgage 9% pa + $2k set-up fee
  • backup — Unfortunately no home equity loan for HDB flats

–If FX risk fully hedged, then any USD or SGD surplus can be deployed. Use Oanda to create synthetic FX swap to lock in near leg and far leg FX rates. For example, USD/SGD falls from 1.4 to 1.3 in the interim.

  1. At TOP:
    1. transfer SGD 28k to USD sub account
    2. withdraw 20k USD to Cambodia
    3. go short 20k USDSGD, requiring about 20% of it as margin
  2. a few months later when I save up enough USD
    1. deposit 20k USD from U.S.
    2. transfer to SGD sub-account as SGD 26k, at a loss due to FX movement
    3. take profit on the short to offset the FX loss

Conceptually, it’s borrowing USD using my SGD as collateral, at 0 borrowing cost. Exact USD amount and exact SGD amount fixed upfront.