[22]next HDB: choosing a flat #bargains, regret

— satisfy wife’s needs along with my needs
For wife, we are likely to stay 5Y minimum, so higher floor is important to her. Including lighting, insects, blocked view, traffic noise.

For me, really important factors are 1) rental yield 2) appreciation, so #10-1169 is one of very few units that can match #2-1173.

Q: realistically, what type of units may suit us?

  • size … slightly smaller as long as 4BR possible
  • floor .. higher for wife, but not too high (psf)
  • age .. same as now
  • d2mrt .. same as now.  Further out by 2min is a big sacrifice for me, but doesn’t translate to lower price at all.

— My two investment objectives
1) Rental yield — rental amount depends on location, not so much on age or floor! The newer flats probably have lower rental yield due to higher psf 🙁

Susan said yes although some high-end renters would offer a premium for unblocked view + renovation. However, I think high-end renters usually avoid HDB altogether.

YLZ said higher floor can command a slight rental premium.

2) Appreciation — is also questionable. Given size is about the same as #1173 but purchase price is higher, what’s the valuation 20Y out? I think it depends on location rather than age, so it might be same as #1173. Susan also feels this way.

Location-wise, most buyers don’t prefer TPY central. When they look around, my area stands out due to close proximity and the underpass. So I would say my location beats 79AD.

— newer .. Among units of comparable size in comparable locations, premium is on the currently newest (like on-the-run Treasuries). As the 79AD ages, the premium on it would decay like put/call options. In X years when you sell, it’s harder to sell an expensive flat for a profit. At that time, the Blk 79AD would be viewed as similar to Blk 155.

  • size, location are permanent factors
  • age differential has diminishing effect
  • floor ?

Q: Suppose the newer flat is smaller but higher floor, then in 2041, which HDB unit would fetch a higher valuation? I think the smaller 79AD unit is unlikely to beat my #1173 since the age advantage would diminish over the decades.

Q: Why are the newer units higher in psf?
A: As I told Susan, the buyers who bid up the valuation of newer flats are non-investors with other goals beside 1) current income and 2) appreciation. Their other goals may include comfort, luxury and vanity (feeling superior).

— bargains .. In any investment decisions, we bad better look for bargains. In other words, undervalued assets.

( U.S. housing market has many bargains. ) In HDB resale flats, what bargains can we look for?

  • very old flats .. most buyers worry about depreciation but I want to rent out.
  • Malay/Indian flats
  • low floor

If we can’t find bargains, at least we need to avoid buying overpriced units. The newest flats have the worst investment value.

— when upgrading home, it’s easy to end up with regret in terms of location
I hate higher floors
I hate the road crossing. I also resent the long walk from MRT

— flexibility to carve out additional room is valuable for rental yield and my own private space
Need wide windows in living room.
So far, only the #1169 and the Blk 142 units …