Let’s put on the white (or black) hat not the yellow hat or red hat. Let’s avoid “hope”.
— net capital invested .. “will be 10k at end of 2021”. Achieved.
— Number of names .. “will be 100 to 200”. Turned out to be 201 at 31 Dec 2021
Best way to count: Dec statement
— %bad_bets .. At an “average” time, in my rbh portfolio perhaps 40% of names (ETF included) would be in red, but 35% if considering dividend. Such a large difference exists because many of my non-performing stocks would have a tiny paper loss, easily compensated by dividend.
Quite likely 10% of the red or black names would have a %PnL below 1% [3]. These would be flippers ( flipping black/red ). Therefore I define deepRed as “%PnL worse than 1%”. Note, I don’t care about deepBlack. My batting average of “lucky picks” trec? Dubious because
- 20% of the names can flip black/red over any period of time. This is similar to tracking your weight fluctuation on different scales, wearing different clothing … the measurement noise is way too high.
- div is ignored by Rbh
In conclusion, I will use a biased-yet-pragmatic yardstick “%bad_bets” := #deepRed_names / #names
[3] Quick assessment by mental calc? compare average cost vs current price, in the Rbh tabulation.
I forecast my %bad_bets would hit 25->30-40% (Achieved). So far, the typical %bad_bets hovers within 15~20%.
In Dec 2021 I told Aaron+Claris that I “always make money whenever I invest in stocks”. (My 3-min description was based on the blogpost on my eq returns.) I explained my eqMufu experience, revealing the key drawback of expRatio. Then I explained my stock picking track record. Most of my picks have be successes.
A “Success” means the stock didn’t drop “too badly”. It could be underwater now, but not hopelessly or permanently. It once had and will again have a chance to show a profit.
— DYOC trec .. “will be around 3->4-5% before tax over 2021”. Cost excludes withdraw-able cash. Achieved even though I have diversified to low-div stocks. If I use some arbitrary criteria to exclude the low-dividend stocks from my portfolio, then my “adjusted” DYOC would be 4->5-6%, before tax.
To manage DYOC, I can consider increasing position in existing high-yield stocks, while reducing (not wiping out) other positions.
My DYOC would be better than my peers, partly due to the prevalence of ETF passive investing. Any mufu salesman in a Singapore bank would ask me to compare my trec against a high-dividend mufu such as FSSA-DIVA. However, mufu often pays out part of its dividend from NAV when it receive less dividend than expected in a poor quarter. I explained in my blogpost on DPR.
— dividend income .. “will be 4% x 8k = $320/Y”, turned out to be $516 over 2021. (2020: $98)
— PnL trec (excluding div) relative [1] to SP500 .. would show a smaller difference (+/-), due to my focus on dividend. However, if there is a crash or long trough then I would benefit from my defensive portfolio, as I can receive dividends and keep my faith in the defensive, stable cash flows.
See also easy to make money; easy to lose
See also inDefenseOf MOETF + drawbacks #w1r4
Red-hat Warning : peer-comparison on PnL is counterproductive even harmful. It is as meaningless as (or worse than) comparison on brank, college prestige, size of home. Many people win that game (PnL or whatever) at a high cost like stress, distraction and family time.
[1] Absolute PnL prognosis will depend mostly on market return
— My tcost on babysitting … would remain “recreational”. Achieved.
My pre-trade tcost .. would increase from the Jan 2021 (honeymoon) level. I beat my expectation 👍.