In the 2000 edition of [[irrational exuberance]] Shiller didn’t hint that the U.S. economy would go into recession soon after 2000. He only hinted that U.S. stock market was overpriced and could crash any time.

I would say his evidence was supporting his view that U.S. stocks were overvalued then. No comments about the U.S. economy.

In other words, stock boom/bust cycle can be decoupled from recession/expansion cycles. In the current pandemic, U.S. economy is in recession but U.S. stocks might be overpriced again — apparently decoupled from the economy.

Luckily, I’m mostly invested in dividend stocks, hopefully weather-proof in a down turn.

Note most of the observations in his books is about U.S. stocks. No comments about OTHER countries.