learning(as recreational investor) #fund^stock-pick #w1r3

Posted on by tiger40490 rendered_on [ Thu, 6 Mar 2025 ] 16:36 UTC

Q: How do I compare with my wife, as a stock picker? My view is likely biased, though I would try to counter-balance my bias
%%A: I think she dare not touch other names. Good for her.

… This question belongs to the end !

Q2: “learning” is a vague buzzword. What kind of thing can you learn? A vague question but be as specific as you can, please?

  • PP) (self + market) psychology  .. The crazy psychology of those investors… we just get used to it, without gaining insight. It’s a big rough sea.
  • EE) economists’ (like Shiller) analysis ..  including market valuation and timing. I took two modules under Mark Hendricks.
  • AA) security analysis as in value investing or quant analysis .. I only spend 10 minutes per name.
  • .. pre/post trade dividend analysis.
  • TT) trading techniques .. risk control, order placement, position mgmt,,,

中长线 analysis (I never did) sounds like learning in EE and AA, but if not applied on stock-picking, then I guess it is only applied on sector picking and market timing.

bccy market is so unstable and fluid that I don’t see any learning in terms of EE, AA,,,

Q6: what are your specific reasons for learning? A vague question but be as specific as you can, please?

  • motivation: intellectual curiosity — some people earn a degree in their 70’s, not to use the knowledge in some career. See also recreational investing
  • big motivation: total return (including current income and windfall far out)
  • motivation: better understanding (of the rough sea PP + EE), better control (of my little dug-out). [1]

[1] Is this motivation underneath the big motivation? Probably not. My twin brother, an ETF investor, could end up with higher profit at some point, but without any understanding/control. I don’t want to end up like him.

Q11: Do I gain any insight from hot growth stock picking? (Similar question can be asked on FX, FXO, gold, oil.)
A: not sure. Whatever capital appreciation could be due to timing or dump luck. In contrast. I gained AA/TT insights on div stock picking only months later, when my div stocks performed well during a downturn — unexpected success.

Q22: did I learn anything from years of mufu “research”?
A: close to zero in EE, some self-discovery in PP.

Q22b: with so limited learning, do I get any real joy from mufu/ETF investing?
A: I feel it’s like watching sex vs having sex. If you don’t know why you made money, then it’s mostly dumb luck with timing… no joy. Doesn’t satisfy my intellectual curiosity.

Q33 (Dahlan discussion): do you learn the most from investment failures, or do you learn more from expected success, unexpected success…?
%%A: I feel some failure is required learning (re commodifies and FXO..) in the PP, AA and TT domain. You won’t become competent swimmer without scary encounters with killer waves.

— The 10Y-question. Context: Like many investors, I started investing during my internship [commodities, UniFund…].
Q: with a 10Y career as an amateur investor ..  am I better than an intern?
A: No better, as a mufu picker. Answer is similar to Q22.
A: Yes as a rEstate and stock(?) picker, I had more frequent buying experiences than many. For rEstate, “Test Result” comes in very slowly. I did lots of research into EE/AA and some PP.

I don’t know Adam Khoo. I think he is an experienced motivational speaker, and trainer, where his talent and wisdom have sustainable value. I don’t know his investment skills.

Q: why does no investor give money to an intern as a fund manager?
A: because the intern shows no wisdom, no trec, and is mostly a blind follower of sentiment. In contrast, an intern can work as a junior but professional programmer, thanks to his technical knowledge gained over 3Y at least. Learning is an essential ingredient. Buffett: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

  • Q: Compared to many seasoned investors like me, an intern can achieve better return via SP500 ETF over 3Y. I think it is sustainable.  Is the intern better than me?
  • Q: Compared to many seasoned investors like me, an intern can achieve even higher return via ARKK over 3Y. I think it is less sustainable.  Is the intern better than me?
  • Q: Compared to many seasoned investors like me, an intern can achieve even higher return via BTC over 3Y. I think it is less sustainable.  Is the intern better than me?