Tech churn refers to newer (often better) technologies affecting the popularity, valuation of a incumbent bccy.

Proliferation refers to highly similar alternatives. Millennia ago, gold beat other metals and minerals to become the #1 precious metal. BTC and other popular blockchain currencies have highly similar competitors. In fact central banks have the technical capabilities to create their own cryptos, or stablecoins.

A hard-fork is a special case of churn. Hard-fork leads to fragmentation of an existing market share. It affects the M@E adoption.

— devaluation due to technology churn…  Traditionally, reserve currencies are the currencies of the strongest economies. Central banks won’t hold some small country’s weak currencies as reserve (unless backed by oil reserve) because the holding could lose value over 30 years. Technology churn is too fast. Over 30 years, the current crop of blockchain currencies could be displaced/eclipsed and consequently lose value.

M@E use case hates the churn, for similar reasons. However, M@E may benefit from proliferation because more choices and free competition tend to benefit consumers.

— why so many cryptocurrencies?
I think one key reason is startup funding. If you have some innovation related to blockchain, you have a choice. In the past you can create (out of thin air) shares of your business and sell to investors.  Now you can create (out of thin air) coins of your own currency and sell to investors. This new currency contributes to both churn and proliferation.

Issuing shares reduces your control over your startup’s direction. It also leads to dilution.

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Q: does technology churn affect visa, mastercard, Amex etc?
%%A: I think newer, better systems (hyperVisa++?) affect the popularity of incumbents, but not the value of USD.