IFF we ignore currency risk, then market risk is somewhat lower than Singapore(?) given BGC is an up-and-coming location with growing population and rising demand.

When we feel demand is strong, ask yourself “who have seen a realized profit?” Can I easily emulate him/her? Until we get realized profit all the  good things are PAPER profits. The clouds are still over our head.

[t=related to trust and professional ethics]
— risks

• Risk – legal rights.
  ** by right, should (get an attorney to) review the contract before handing over money
  ** [t] Q: Do I own it? Can I sell it freely? Yes
  ***Looks like the title deed isn’t useful. The developer must be credible. Gov can’t do much.
  ** [t] Q: Can I take the money out of the country? yes, use bank remittance
  ** Rumor about RM$1m regulation
  ***no such regulation now
• Risk – heavy reliance on a local rental agent
  ** experience with our #4-116 unit? Not too bad
  ** Q: take up rate in this location and at this price? No such stat
  ** [t] Q: what if agent says vacant but …
  ** Q: indemnity against illegal activity by tenants? Yes
• Q: tax rate on rent and capital gain? See http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Philippines/Taxes-and-Costs
• Risk – oversupply driving down rent and resale valuation
• Risk – no tenant? Well, most locations across Manila would face higher risk of vacancy. This location is among the most convenient, so if we lower the price we should get taken up
• Risk – price already rather high (hype). Can locals afford it??
• Risk – currency … could wipe out all gains.
• Risk – maintenance cost. Without upkeep the unit would deteriorate.
• Risk – delay in completion
• Risk – political / economic stability…not as good as the developed countries, where property prices are much higher. Philippines is clearly an emerging market, with high uncertainty.
• Risk – street safety. Will foreigners want to rent and live there? But it’s easy to stereotype and dismiss many locations:
  ** SFO earthquake
  ** Beijing air pollution
• Risk – 2008-style GFC could hit foreign investors’ hot money
• Risk – S$200k is still a big amount. As a commitment phobic, I always prefer smaller amount and shorter timeframe. I sleep better when the amount invested is small.

— good parts

• timeframe
• studio available… I always prefer small but superior locations
• rental yield (offset by running costs)
• Not a well-known residential market like HK, Shanghai, Sydney, so have potential for appreciation
• PH is at least a known competitive and pro-business location (better than many emerging economies)
• up and coming location. Price could double over 5-20 years. Endorsed by the government, big banks, embassies, international schools, hotels in-demand. Doesn’t mean good, but at least this is better than a place without demand

— comparable market prices
Crescent park serviced apartment 1BR p4000/night; F1 hotel Deluxe p6300/night… However, these numbers have proven largely irrelevant.