These aren’t reliable or even backed by sufficient statistics. Market doesn’t obey any rule.

Looks like long term USDSGD will weaken but short term could strengthen.

• I do believe that if SEA regional currencies are very weak, then SGD appreciation (USD/SGD decline) would be limited.
• SG government financial fundamentals much stronger than US government, but this doesn’t stop USDSGD from rising
• Growing US government debt weakens USD, in the long term.
• MAS is still confident about SG economy long term… maintains gradual appreciation of SGD against trading partners.
• Long term confidence — global investors have more confidence in US economic growth than Singapore economical growth. US economic growth (and booming stocks) strengthens USD against all other currencies
• US tech boom — seems to drive “new economy” and strengthens USD
• talent competition — US still attracts global talents more than other countries, and therefore remains global leader in innovation.
• The 2015 strength of USD is attributed to
  • stronger US economy relative to Eu/Jap
  • impending Fed rate hike
  • devaluation by China
  • weak SG economy, possibly a technical recession