Diversify. There’s too much uncertainty so we aren’t sure if A is definitely better than B. After some (black swan) events, B may appear better than A.

–BGC advantages:

• Chun Tih is a known friend and co-investor
• maturity of the BGC location — BGC has undergone development for 20 years, with many successful projects in operation. Higher chance of stable growth.
• Developer track record — One of the most established developers in the Ph, also operates McDonald’s and Resorts World (Genting) in the Philippines.
• Raymond is co-investing. Granted we could all suffer together, but at least I don’t need to deal with it alone. Feels better.
• supply — limited supply in this enclosed location for the BGC professional workers BUT there is possibly a glut of residential towers in and near BGC
• Philippines economy — more developed more integrated into world economy -> slightly lower risk BUT perhaps lower upside, and more risk of drop
• more English-speaking educated workforce.

–Phnom Penh shop advantages:

• Can hold — for 10Y. Property requires holding power, whether developing or developed countries.
• shops — tend to generate higher rent and longer tenancy
• guaranteed rent — No worry about vacancy
• dollarized economy
• competing suppliers — very few shops for sale, BUT future shopping malls will compete for tenants
• hassle free — no taxes, repairs .. to worry about
• Singapore developer — DBS underwriting; retail bond issuer… BUT a small developer.
• higher NGRY — probably 10%+. http://www.mlnconsultant.com/jpz/jpz_zixun/2021.html
• For both shops and homes, oversupply is not obvious.
• Phnom Penh feels safer, less chaotic than Manila
• 快速城镇化时期