Past competitive performance is not predictor of future out-performance

Scope: wide, relevant, not highly specific

— (the opening example) when we buy a mufu or hedge fund, we bet the fund manager’s competitive skill would endure

— When I “bought” Singapore at an early “price”, I was betting the system strengths [comparative advantages, resources,,] would endure for 50 years until I pass away. See https://btv-open.dreamhosters.com/17679/boughtsg-early/

retrospective?

— When I “bought” WStC and stayed lukewarm about WCBA, I was betting WSt’s relative profitability, the relatively age-friendly job market would endure

— when I “bought” NUS and UChicago, I was betting these brands would keep their competitive values for 50 years.

Now I think NUS is basically a government-run organization competing with top dogs in Asia and globally.

Let’s focus on UChicago? What specific “features” are enduring????

How about Shiyan and HCJC? They too add some brand value to my personal /profile/.

— When a product advertiser signs a 3Y contract with a celebrity brand ambassador, the manufacturer is betting the star power would endure for 3Y. Too much competition among the stars.

— When Warren Buffett picks a stock, he would buy the management, the moat, the business model,,,

How about the brand? I think brand value is perishable 🙁