Compared to barebones ffree=realistic: BT^YLZ ^wbank^CPF , this blogpost describes a crisis situation lasting months to 2Y. Therefore, the involuntary “jobless burn rate” is lower than the voluntary barebones-ffree burn rate.
- — covid19 handouts:
- Japan — JPY 100k (USD 900) for each citizen
- SG — SGD 3000 for my family of four
- US — up to USD 3000/family or $1200/person unless your income exceeds 99k/Y. The Dec 2020 handout (described below) amounts to $2400 for a family of four.
- HK — HKD 10k or SGD1833 for each permanent resident, in 2020
Covid19 rescue budgets by these rich economies often feature a one-time cash handout like listed above. These figures suggest a bare-bones monthly family burn rate of USD $1k/family. Similarly, there are two longer-term rescue programs in the U.S.:
- More tellingly, regardless of pandemic, New York state unemployment benefit is up to $504/week for 26 weeks. Total payout is capped at 504 x 26 = $13k, even for a $1M wage earner.
- A US expert commentator interviewed on https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3csz8mz said that an extra $400/week on top of state unemployment benefits, adding up to $900/week in NY is higher income than many people’s regular wage, and discourages them from seeking job.
- After 2020 Christmas, Trump temporarily vetoed a bill paying out a one-time $600 to (adult/child) Americans earning less than $75,000 a year (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55447731 ). His veto caused widespread /outcry/. A one-time $600 amount is not insignificant for millions of affected families.
Based on these figures, I would say that to the authorities, realistic median family burn rate, on the ground, is estimated[1] at well below 5k/M. Even a 3k/M estimate would render the handout amount as useless as a drop in a cup. Some American families received handout equivalent to 20% of household annual income. This is not rare — very high percentage.
[1] That median is an unknown quantity, so an estimate is all we have. — U.S. safety net is less than other rich countries https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52450958 compares the U.S. covid rescue budget against Europeans: “The discretionary response is very large in the United States but when you’re comparing you need to take into account that actually more needs to be done in the US because the social safety nets are smaller”
— Q: If my grown-up son or daughter had a high BR (like $6k/M) and comes to me for help during a pandemic, how much would I give out? A: $1-2k/M. That’s close to 70% of the median income, sufficient for basic livelihood.
— Raymond 2020: During the lockdown, Raymond was job hunting and was also scenario-planning for wife’s job loss at MBS — a non-zero probability after the RWS retrenchment. He told me they might need to survive on savings, at a 3k/M burn rate for a family of four. No maid, no private tuition. I think his 3k plan is based on real experience. I trust his estimate.
— Many Singaporeans who didn’t need the $600 handout basically returned it by donating to government-run charities. This underlies the trust of Singaporeans in PAP government. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/lifestyle-culture/article/3086504/singaporeans-open-their-hearts-and-wallets-donate-needy