A 2021 revisit — I told my friend Zeng that any financial planning (ffree++) is a piece of cake for some, if they ignore the black swans and missteps, which are often non-financial. Zeng felt many disasters can be managed with insurance. However, many black swans are not financial in nature and can’t be compensated by insurance. (Amputation compensation?)

According to the originator, black swans by nature tend to dominate the course of history , esp. over the long horizon.  [19]random derailers@ffree lists many swans+missteps, but today’s blogpost is absolutely not exclusive to ffree, so most of the contents do not belong to that ffree blogpost.

My conclusion after the discussion with Zeng — the longer your horizon, the more you will see your planning dominated by swans (+missteps), which are not mathematical and hard to estimate.

Below are some common questions from friends and advisers, on my long-term financial planning, including retirement planning. I like the questions to be phrased as sharp and specific as possible, rather than vague and broad.

This blogpost is not in-depth, but offers an across-the-board comparison.

— non-stop marathon, no 一劳永逸, limited profit Lock-in

Fundamentally, There’s nothing permanent when it comes to long-horizon financial planning. The harder you think and the harder you try, the more clear this becomes.

• Prime example — Singapore’s stability, prosperity, hub status.. is never guaranteed by anyone and constantly under threat. Similarly,
• Your wellness will not last. You can’t “invest” or “buy” 10 years of wellness like 一劳永逸. You must keep working on it. Daily battle. My dad and LKY are good role models. You can lock-in BMI, cardio, muscle improvements for a few months (flexibility? a few weeks) but there’s no “capture this gigantic profit opportunity and enjoy temporary retirement for 4Y“.
• You career longevity is even more similar to the Singapore case. Body building (Continuous coding drill, QQ study..) is a lifelong hobby and training, similiar to fitness.

The worry about the uncertainty and impermanence is legit and can be life-enhancing #bbc.

— Q: can I maintain my low burn rate through retirement till my final year?
A: As show in G5 Shields@family_livelihood, this shield is in my hand. There are surely some derailers — random ffree-derailers #resilience is the best “derailer list” I have.

— Q: can I achieve career longevity like dev-till-70 and beyond ?
A: As show in G5 Shields@family_livelihood, this shield is probably even more in my control. I actively reject the pessimism expressed by Jason Fu and the like.

Some concern, some sense of uncertainty are completely legit and would motivate my diligence, self-improvement, close watch, detachment.

— Q: are the SG medical cost cushions sustainable and reliable?
A: I choose not to worry, and leave it to the PAP leadership and the healthcare industry.

— Q: is CPF-life reliable over my lifetime?
A: easy question. I think this is like questioning the insurance industry, insurance model. Annuity has been around for a long time, in many countries, not invented by SG government.

CpfLife (and other annuities) basically adress the CRBR, not the black swans.

— Q: how reliable are the other nonwork incomes?
A: less reliable than CPF-life. Therefore, I plan to liquidate some of them and convert to CPF-life, despite the inferior return and liquidity.
A: I don’t want to be too pessimistic. In fact, I want to be cautiously optimistic. Many retirees seem to receive fairly reliable rental and dividend incomes.

This question is most relevant to the 一劳永逸 concept. In theory, you can buy and hold a hero stock for life to receive high dividends, but in reality it’s like winning the lottery. See buy-n-hold a hero stock4div #ValueInvest. If it’s easy to get so lucky then why is it enviable in the first place?

— Q: how long is my good health going to last?
A: among these common questions, this question has the weakest answer from me. In fact I have no answer.

Some fear, some sense of powerlessness are completely legit and would motivate my diligence, self-discipline, close watch, detachment, kindness, generosity.