gold^bccy^U.S.eq^rEstate: long-term strength #w1r4

For the purpose of legacy planning (including inflation hedge), this blogpost is 51% about gold, 30% about stocks.

  • I see the strength in gold over a 200Y horizon. It has proven its strength over 2000Y. CB (Central banks) slowly build up and carefully transport gold reserve precisely because gold provides time-honored, enduring, strength to the respective currencies.
  • I see the strength in properties over a 70Y horizon, but this strength is location-specific. Discussed below.
  • I see the strength in U.S. stocks over a 30Y horizon, considering numerous regime changes.

large holders of gold tend to be central banks. In comparison, here are the largest holders of other asset classes:

  • gov bonds — similiarly held by governments, banks, insurers, corporations. gov bonds provide strength and stabilization.
  • Commercial and large rental buildings — held usually by corporations and governments .
  • individual residential properties — held by individuals + corporations.
  • stocks — bought and sold by individual investors, buy-side institutions

Boom-n-bust … describes stock and residential property bubbles, not gold. However, gold can become overvalued.
— typical holding period

  • stocks — months, up to 5Y for retail investors
  • residential properties and long bonds — decades
  • gold — generations. I believe most large holders of gold don’t sell often. Say price is now $2k/oz. If a CB decides to sell 1% of its holdings, it would probably impact the market right away. Therefore, I suspect the large movement is due to small investors.

— Since the invention of money, gold has held its strength, so what could derail gold’s strength?
Disruptive technologies threaten to destroy the special position of petrol, but is there a disruptive technology against gold? I don’t see any sign.

gold offers inflation hedge only over the long term. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/gold-as-an-inflation-hedge-history-suggests-otherwise.html “If you look at the very long term, gold should hold its value against inflation. But in any shorter period, it may or may not be a good hedge”

==== other inflation hedges
Actually, I don’t worry too much about SG inflation.
— bccy

How about bccy as a long-term inflation hedge? Any proven inflation hedge must be stable. Gold is much more stable than BTC.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/crypto-ftx-sbf-bankrupt-crash-binance-3068201 says
The value proposition of crypto was supposed to be a hedge to the dollar or more conventional parts of the market.

Or that it would hold up in value if everything else fell. But an asset that offers that kind of hedge is rare; most assets are somewhat correlated, especially when the market drops. Rareness normally means an expensive asset that offers a lower return, possibly negative yield. You pay a big price for that kind of safety and it’s hard to find. The fact that crypto offered such high returns indicated it was never a good hedge.

— “real asset”.. Some investment salesmen (or economists?) use “real asset” to refer to precious metals + rEstate. They find something in common between those asset classes — anti-inflation, and not based on a paper document like stocks and bonds.

Actually, I think SP500 ETF is also anti-inflation, but for a different reason. The Achilles’ heel of stocks as long-term inflation hedge (bold claim) is the short history of stock market .. 50Y vs 2000Y for gold. Regime change is rather frequent.
* I feel the price chart before 1945 is largely irrelevant.
* Due to high inflation high interest,, the price chart before 1980 is also largely irrelevant.

— property market is extremely location specific.
Eg: Beijing/Shanghai growth has been exceptional and unreasonable.

If your location is not a tier 1 city or attractive to the property-loving Chinese investors, then long-term capital protection is questionable.