SND stands for “supply-and-demand”. As a universal framework for investment analysis, it has limitations in some markets. In this blogpost I will focus on my asset classes.
— PE/HY-bond — I bought a few times. I think in this case supply is tightly controlled by the issuers and demand is dominated by credit risk and coupon rate.
Investor mind share is very low. No herd anything.
— commercial properties — Probably less retail influence than in residential market, and less herd sentiment.
- supply is mostly institutions including the builder. There may be retail sellers.
- demand is mixed. Most retail buyers prefer residential.
— residential properties — high Demand from retail investors.
I think retail investors often value comfort and luxury in additional to total return. These are rational considerations for consumption assets.
— penny stocks on SGX or U.S. — investor mind share is much lower than blue-chips. However, herd mentality can still affect some retail sellers.
- Supply side is the existing shareholders, probably much fewer than for well-known stocks esp. from the U.S.
- Demand is also lower
— well-known stocks — are the extreme case of sky-high SND. Both supply and demand sides have large institutional investors, but price is often driven by retail investors. Retail investors can be irrational and mis-informed, and can ignore the fundamental and mostly follow herd sentiment.
Therefore, to make money in these stocks, fundamental analysis may not help (may be relevant in the long-run) and sentiment/timing may be the dominant factor. I generally avoid these stocks.
— physical gold .. kinda similar to well-known stocks, but bid-ask spread is much worse because an institution is usually the other side of a retail buyer or seller. The institution would demand a bigger bid/ask spread.
Two retail traders directly interacting is only possible on the futures market.