k_babysit4exit
Disambiguation of “timing” — It can mean the strategic importance of AA) acquisition price, or BB) price forecast, including prediction of turning points using analytical or math methods.
No one disputes the importance of AA. BB is controversial.
I don’t know how Buffett perceive BB. Value investors are not supposed to time the market(BB). However, in a down turn, there are more bargain opportunities. See the book by Pauline Teo. In my experience, I can see that timing in AA sense (or random luck) is a major factor but there’s not much we can do about it[1], except obvious things like “avoid buying after a climb”.
- Buffett (AA): “For the investor, a too-high purchase price for the stock of an excellent company can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business developments.”
- Buffett (BB): “In the 54 years (Charlie Munger and I) have worked together, we have never forgone an attractive purchase because of the macro or political environment, or the views of other people. In fact, these subjects never come up when we make decisions.”
- Buffett (BB): “We’ve long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.”
- [1] Buffett (BB): “If you like spending six to eight hours per week working on investments, do it. If you don’t, then DCA [
dollar-cost average] into index funds.” — no timing please
[1] I can say the same about absorbency for financial numbers. This absorbency is not easy to train. If you don’t have this absorbency, then consider low-cost index funds.
Buffett recommended against obsessing over finding(BB) a perfect time to buy a stock. Rather, the Berkshire Hathaway CEO said, go ahead and invest, and then observe the stock market over time to see if you should buy more of that company’s stock or sell it.