excess household savings → rEstate+stocks #TJ.Liu

As I wrote to a fellow investor TJ.Liu,

I mostly agree with your observation that when people have too much spare cash in savings, they usually invest it in 1) pp (i.e. properties) or 2) eq (i.e. equities). I also know people who put big savings into 3) CPF-SA 4) gold.

However, most people are not big savers even in Chinese societies. If I use a benchmark like “Do you save 30% of your total cash income including non-work income, excluding unrealized profit, excluding CPF or 401k or other compulsory savings?” I guess only 30% of Singaporeans qualify.

— over-valued? My yardsticks
When we have excess savings, it’s reckless to go blindly into any investment, even mainstream investments. It’s relatively easy to compare asset classes and check over-valuation.

  • current yield or payout rate … is my favorite yardstick which is [ annual_payout/total_investment_amt ].  pp (SEA) > cpf > eq > pp (SG) > 0 > gold .
  • A related yardstick is dependability of payout. cpf >> eq (DYOC) > pp

So CPF-SA is not overvalued and a very safe choice, but you can only take it out at age 55.