During a period of uncertainty (up to half the days), I tend to imagine a dice being tossed. It is usually an inconsequential, small dice because the market doesn’t really change direction. However, in every cycle, the real big dice is tossed. Everyone, including those who got out of the market early, has their fortune determined by that toss. Some tosses are so huge that they cause a seismic shift , where the public’s perception of and belief in various eq markets undergo a fundamental adjustment.
I don’t have good examples. Perhaps the Great Depression or the Japanese stock bubble of the 1980s, or the dotcom bubble?
Q: until I pass away, how many times would the big dice roll?
A: Not 10 times. Fundamentally, each stock market cycle lasts 5-10 years, not 1Y. Each decline will likely be global, and followed by a slow n uneven[1] recovery.
[1] Some regional (stock) indices would recover faster. (So far it is U.S.) Others may take decades. I feel the _relative_ ascent or /displacement/ of specific markets [eg: bio sector, EV sector, energy sector, India market, Korea market, junk bonds, muni bonds,,,] often take place during such seismic shift. Therefore, the seismic shift could function like a shake-up across market boundaries. Some markets would crash deeper; some markets would decline much longer; some market would recover earlier; some markets would recover stronger and reach new highs;;
Q: how long will U.S. market maintain its preeminent position?
A: At least 3 more cycles, possibly all the way till I pass
Therefore, contrary to some naïve thinking, the /dreaded/ decline of U.S. eq (esp. relative to other regions) is not based on 100 (major) tosses over the next 50Y, where each toss has the potential to cause a seismic shift, and provide the inflection point of that dreaded decline. In fact, no regional eq market has shown any promise as a /challenger/ to U.S. eq.
Based on my reasoning, RSPs [including DCA] into U.S. eq market (not other markets) will continue to match the U.S. market, and do reasonably well.