The pattern — In each investment decision, we are actually betting on one or two key “Variables”. After the dust settles, we can see which  Variable actually dominated.

I prefer specific words for each Variable. For example, MarketRisk is a vague, generic phrase.

— MSFM: (not a financial bet) variable is SnD of quant talents .. poor bet
— FXO: Variable was USD/SGD
— Jill’s HY/PE: good bets for the first deals. Luckily I minimized the quantum. Looks like Variable is credit risk.
— US HY bond mufu: Variable is segment sentiment (part of mkt risk)
— PLIP: if Sora (the likely Variable) remains low for 8+ years, then PLIP would be a good decision.
— Blk177: good bet. Variables were 1) market risk including rental 2) prime (HDB heartland) location
— BGC:

• Variable 1: rental yield .. much lower than expected. Poor bet.
• Variable 2: timely completion (developer)… Many construction projects got delayed. BGC was delayed by a few years but I still count myself lucky
• Variable 3: SGD/PHP… Not too bad.

— Cambodia units:

• Variable 1: GRR credit risk of the developer .. good bet
• Variable 2: location .. neighborhood growth momentum .. not bad, largely thanks to China investment
• Variable 3: timely completion (developer) … Good bet
• Variable 4: efficient title transfer process.

Some may say a key variable is the developer’s credibility, but I think such a variable is too vague to be useful. I feel I bet well on MIH, much better than Megaworld.