[23]BTC !!as solid as gold

For every theoretical criticism of bccy, someone would challenge it with “How is gold any better?” This bpost is a biased view against bccy (in favor of gold). For simplicity, I will use BTC (or ETH) as a concrete example of bccy.

If a gold transaction happens electronically, the physical gold is still the same amount (not vanishing). Electronic audit trail of the transaction would be open, and disputes can be resolved in a court of law.

Multiple Nobel economists have said the intrinsic value of BTC is zero, but how about gold?

— Q: BTC has no future cashflow supporting its valuation, but how about gold or art collectibles?
A: I think BTC is similar to art collectibles or tulips. Gold has (no cashflow) some unique advantages as store_of_value, as discovered over centuries and widely documented.

It’s quite possible that BTC will enjoy growing demand despite its limitations, just as gold enjoys robust demand despite its limitations. (Some would see exact that scenario has materialized since the late 2010s.)

Q: Gold (and silver) is not the only rare metal in the world, and it has defeated all those competitors over centuries and emerged as the dominant physical store_of_value for (central) banks. Will BTC  follow the same path?
A: BTC has emerged dominant. A better bccy might emerge dominant later, like ETH. That may lead to a drop in demand for BTC and devaluation.
A: even if a real king of bccy emerges after some battles, it doesn’t imply acceptance by central banks as store_of_value.

— Q: BTC is not yet suitable as a medium_of_exchange, but how about gold?
A: silver (and copper) was a medium_of_exchange. Gold coin was also proven fairly effective as a medium_of_exchange. Many gold coins are issued by national banks.

— Q: Gold has a proven track record over millenniums. What if BTC also survives 50Y and earn our trust?
I think over 50Y we would see some end-use case. (Gold has end-use case like industrial and jewelry.)

50Y will witness the “inflation hedge“. (Gold is proven.)

— Q: what if central banks start to build up BTC positions within their OFR [official foreign reserve] or other national reserves?

See bccy as reserve currency@@ #volatile

Q4: what if half of all celebrities and big corporations start to build up BTC positions (comparable to gold)?
A: I doubt a sophisticated investor would allocate half her assets in BTC (or bccy in general), if she has kids or dependencies.

Q4b: what if many ibanks and big corporations take positions in BTC similar to the gold situation?
A: I doubt it could happen but if it does, then I think the key feature is central bank acceptance. So far only one central bank has accepted BTC, but I don’t want to digress.

Q: both gold and BTC has limited supply, and therefore provide store_of_value?
A: Any limit on issuing rate is hard to maintain. The case of gold is about the only proven case. For BTC, the hard limit on total supply is designed by people, implemented in software and can be scrapped given sufficient popular support. ETH has no max cap. ETH issuing rate is subject to change by the SWEs.