Author: tiger40490

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[25]build up150k]wife’s greenPortion

Posted on by tiger40490

 

  • $10k self top-up by cash .. excluded from green_portion of cpfRA. “Only meant for CpfLife monthly payout”. No way to withdraw at 55 or any time after.
  • $10k within-family cash top-up, includes my annual 8k .. excluded
  • $10k within-family cpf transfer .. excluded
  • .. In my dashboard there is an amount displayed.
  • $10k self transfer from her own OA (including VCon).. will go into green_portion 🙂
  • $38k VCon -> 3-way split .. about 27k will go into green_portion 🙂
  • .. salary contribution .. similar. Let’s wait for that to kick in.

The green_portion of wifeRA is f4w by “pledging”. As of Feb 2025, 24k is red_portion. Green_portion is about 60k.

It’s crucial to build up a big SA balance before she turns 55, so that when cpfRA is created, it will have a sizeable green_portion.

The timeline and process:

  1. at 55, FRS amount (say 250k) is auto-transferred from OA/SA into my new RA. (There may be an excess balance in OA/SA.)
  2. IFF we pledge my portion of the flat as “collateral” then we can take out the green_portion of cpfRA. We should test this channel after 55, a little bit.
  3. The OA/SA excess balance can be withdrawn 100% any time. We should exhaust this channel beffore touching the green_portion.
  4. After 55 (by 65), I will top up cpfRA to the ERS watermark.
  5. Before wife turns 55, self-transfer OA balance to SA.

TJJ’s fair amount of RMB asset

Posted on by tiger40490

To keep things simple, we will assume the shares of TB, LSQ and TJJ is 20:40:40. TJJ’s RMB amount is therefore 40% of Rmb7800k = Rmb 3120k. This 3120k has always stayed in LSQ’s account, but belongs to TJJ. There is no question about this amount. The question is

Qn1: How much personal cash assets TJJ has, in his own bank accounts?  We are focused on how much he should have, as a legitimate, fair share of the couple’s shared assets.

As of mid 2024, right before the 7800k sale, TJJ used one bank only i.e. ICBC (PSBC account was dormant and empty).

  • 380k in ICBC TimeDeposits
  •  80k in ICBC savings
  • no USD in ICBC
  • ——
  • total Rmb 460k

It’s simple yet not unfair to assume that Rmb 460k is the estimated final amount of TJJ’s personal cash asset on his final days. There have been inflows and outflows but these flows largely cancel out each other. Some inflows and outflows are passing through his account and should not affect Qn1.

  • inflow: one-off 100k from 文学所. Supposed to be given to LSQ for DJDJ fees, which add up to about 400k/Y. (100k is an under-payment to LSQ.)
  • inflow: monthly salary, but this used to be given to LSQ since LSQ is paying all family expenses.  (Perhaps an overpayment to LSQ.)
  • inflow: LSQ transferred a few five-figure amounts to TJJ
  • outflow: TB transferred a few amounts including amounts to buy USD. All part of TB’s 20% in transit.

Anwser to Qn1 is 3120k + 460k = Rmb 3580k. I propose to use 3600k as a simpler estimate.

inheritance ex_China

Posted on by tiger40490

 

I feel lucky that DJDJ offers free legal counselling hotline 8525 7135 (护法银龄) exclusively to its paying customers. I will consider paying them for their professional advice.

Imagine one aging parent has 6M of life expectancy. I described my two choices to the legal counsellor. They said #1 (one-shot) is superior:

#1) leave a large cash balance in the aging parent’s bank account. Rely on official SAFE regulation to get the three inheritance amounts released in one shot

Observation: It takes less than “several months” to get the cash distributed to 3 survivors.

Rule: Using authenticated proof, you (and I) can engage SAFE to get your portion released. Few bankers know how to do it, but Bryan Du said HSBC has experience with inheritance by foreign passport-holders.

#2) move cash out of the aging parent’s bank account in advance, to avoid inheritance tax… but there’s no inheritance tax regulation as of 2024.

They also advised me to call SAFE gov hotline… who are familiar with foreign passport holders taking out inheritance. I get the impression that this particular gov system (SAFE) is not so bureaucratic, inefficient, ineffective.

Observation: Inheritance law has been proposed many times but still not implemented. It may take years.

PRC gov policy may relax or tighten (close loopholes) capital control any time, but inheritance law is more stable.

q[property_income]钱生钱: diverging preferences

Posted on by tiger40490

In economics, property_income is an umbrella term for cash cow income i.e. 钱生钱. It is a subset of passive income and nonwork income.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Property_income lists 3 common types of property income:

  • RR) rent .. main risk is political, legal, physical risks
  • II) interest (+dividend) .. usually periodic [1].
  • PP) realized profit
  • —-
  • aa) realized rEstate appreciation .. is not property_income IMO. This profit is similar to buy/sell of paintings.

Company profit can become unrealized gain for a small partnership, but in stock market, profit shows up as either dividend payout (or buyback) or stock rally.

[1] 1 in 20 credible stocks have a history of random dividend that is utterly unreliable. In all other stocks, either there’s no expectation of dividends, or management has the responsibility to meet shareholder expectation of non-zero dividend every year.

— I am different from peer investors in my attitudes towards property_income
Many of my U.S. peers favor PP, like a windfall
Many of my Singapore and China peers favor aa over PP (denoted “aa > PP”)
I am different. I favor RR > II > PP

— credit risk .. affects II most, also RR
— market risk .. affects PP most, and also dividends

PFIOL=PF intOnlyLoan #PFSA

Posted on by tiger40490

PFIOL = prem financing interest-only loan
Wayne pointed out “interest-only” is quite common wherever lender owns an insurance policy as collateral. I am the beneficiary not the owner of the policy.

Q: why this PFIOL is acceptable while others aren’t? Actually I don’t remember the others in detail

  • A: current LIR is high, so I can easily visualize high LIR. Worst-case plann is easier.
  • A: pay_down is easy and free. simplicity
  • A: I can liquidate full policy after 36M. Prison term is shorter. simplicity
  • A: loan quantum is relatively small
  • A: no currency risks
  • A: LIR risk is “contained” within the final 14M window… simplicity

Q3: pay_down? See quote below
A: Note the first 2 of the 3 windows have good LIR. During the 3rd (final) window, if LIR skyrockets, I ought to pay down, perhaps using the first FLI2, or my USD (around 200k), provided by then I have yet to deploy USD elsewhere
A: After prison term, I think I should pay down iFF I have too much idle cash and unable to genertate 2.77 ppa (an hypothetical LIR).

Q3b: Both loans carry the same LIR, so pay down which first?
A: FWD, because I may soon surrender this one, and keep FLi250 leveraged.
A: FLi250, to protect this deal from default hazard

— COF is the overall cost across the CIMB buseiness.

🙁 COF is opaque, not as transparent as Sora.

👍 COF is stable… Sora is too volatile for the lender, so a thicker buffer (1 ppa spread) is imposed.  As of Nov 2024, for all-in LIR, Sora is worse than COF.

CIMB offers COF to loan customers as an option. If uncompetitive, customer can choose Sora, or customer can pay off the loan or default.

As of 27 Jan 2025, COF is 3.09 ppa.

— GIRO .. Repeated Giro failures would prompt Cimb to terminate the loan via policy surrender. (Annual prepayment is not an option.)

Scheme 1 .. To minimize monthly operational risk, I can switch to FWD monthly payout option. I will only withdraw surplus balance from PFSA [PremFinancing service acct] once a few months.

Scheme 1b .. after I receive each annual payout, I will withdraw surplus and leave sufficient balance for 12M

Current Scheme 2 .. Remind myself (gCalendar?) to top up PFSA periodically (quarterly?) and monitor PFSA balance as part of recon.

— I Looked into why (based on 3% loan rate for the final 19M) the net loss is so much higher than in the Singlife deal. I think the main reason is … I’m paying CIMB 6 months of additional interest. 3% x 190k for 6M = $2850 of additional interest. This $2850 is partially offset by a higher upfront rebate (1.87% vs Singlife 1.37%) and higher annual payout rate (3.38% vs Singlife 3.21%)

Actually, I will have more than 228k idle cash sitting in some bank accounts. During the final 14 months, I might be willing to keep the 228k loan at 3% LIR, and simultaneously earn a higher DIR. This /stance/posture/attitude/perspective/ might help cushion the pain and regret of “exit FWD deal at a loss”. That’s Scenario A.

Here’s Scenario B. The earliest exit time is Nov 2027 for FWD. If in early 2027, I foresee that I will exit ASAP, and I can’t earn a better DIR than LIR, then I would sink in up to 228k to pay_down (or even wipe out) the loan. This will make the end-to-end PnL positive (or less negative :). I think this is viable, according to the email thread “loan pay-down i.e. partial pre-payment”.

However, the bigger my total PFL quantum, the heavier is my debt burden, the slower I could pay_down. I would probably surrender my very first FLI2 for pay_down. 

Penalty for prepayment? See loan offer letter. Two scenarios — 1) within free-look period 2) short-notice. Silvester replied that

There’s no lock in for the loan and you can choose to redeem anytime. However, there is a 1 month notice period for partial repayment, and 3 months’ notice period for full repayment. Since there’s no limit to partial repayment, if such events were to occur, you could partial pay off majority of the loan after 1 month. It will be left with $10k as the remaining loan which you are able to pay fully and redeem your policy 2 months after your partial payment.

 

bank::CMB招商

Posted on by tiger40490
  • outlets .. 132 in Beijing, far more than HSBC
  • nearest branch 68784030 (9-17:30)
  • hotline +86-755-95555 … after 12 am emergency services only.
  • FB_balance $0
  • webank is discouraged. Mobank is recommended.
  • Transfer-out is Rmb20k/day

— j4 CMB

  • j4: ChannelA 0.5% fee, max Rmb60 for 10k withdrawal.
  • #1 j4 (over PSBC): keep wife’s ChannelA /operable/ when PSBC is frozen? Hopefully
  • j4 (over PSBC): no 绑定码
  • j4 (over PSBC): no NRIC needed on every flight to China
  • j4 (over PSBC): more “foreigner-friendly”
  • j4 (over PSBC): can open account for age 16-17
  • j4 (over PSBC): can open account for age 11, under custody

— account opening .. passport + smrz mobileNum
— mobileNum needs smrz .. Rmb180 can last 2 years.
For Zofia, can set up long-term number at T3 ChnM. Optionally, when we have time, transfer #178 to her. Updating mobileNum is fast but must go to branch, with smrz proof of new number.

— age 11: Option P: Parent can give his smrz mobile number + [ official birth cert + both passports to show relationship] but the birth cert need 海牙认证.

For meimei, this is too complicated due to name change.
— age 16-17: Better give a good reason like wcpay/alipay, and overseas card spend

  • Option P
  • Option 1: If you can get a smrz-mobileNum then the accont can be opened and usable for ChannelA. For boy, can set up a temp 14D mobileNum at T3 Unicom. In Singapore, quickly log in (not required) and start ChannelA. Even after mobileNum expires, we can still transfer in and use ChannelA.
  • Option 3: 非实名认证手机号 might be usable to open the account, with “lower” transaction limits

— What if mobileNum expired? Can transfer in and withdraw, as confirmed with hotline

  • balance check on overseas ATM .. should be FOC
  • balance check via phone banking automated.. requires 查询PIN + card number
  • balance check via phone banking live agent .. requires 查询PIN + card number

 

Posted in chn

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Posted on by tiger40490

This comparison proves to me that cpfOA is an inferior parking space.

Therefore, I should consider housing refund from FSM to OA to SA.

SA OA FSM bank
(comp)return@$1k marginal amount 4% 2.5% 2-3%
.. dependable return? yes no yes
how soon can take out without loss age 55 6M 1D
use for edu #after 55? BRS yes
use for housing before 55? no yes yes
use for U.S. housing/edu? no no yes
use for stocks mostly US no unlikely yes

lock up100k]cpf if no liquidity need

Posted on by tiger40490

See also

— The worries .. Given 300k [1] idle cash in your bank account, this sitting suck is exposed to (ranked by my worry)

  1. scams … growing threat as we age and lose some of our judgement
  2. splurge .. by anyone in the family
  3. [a] adult children 啃老 .. relying on me
  4. [a] adult children’s housing needs .. their problem, not my duty. I want to help out within my means. Having most of my fund locked into cpfLife obviates these tricky, heavy, stressful decisions.
  5. [a] start-up .. by my adult children or someone else. A good cause. However, beyond my 60s I won’t have big (above 100k) appetite for start-ups.
  6. [a] donations .. Large donation is safer in my will, not an impulsive decision. In contrast, regular contribution can be adjusted at any time.

[a] Some may call me an elderly hoarder but I want to protect my wife and my own retirement.

[1] You may have more idle cash, but let’s focus on a slice of it.

——————————-

If you are between 55 and 65, and foresee no “liquidity needs” after 65, then better lock it away in cpfRA. Time your action to some time close to 65.

If you don’t need this amount of idle cash after 55, then better lock it away in cpfRA. Note you still can withdraw the snap55_FRS_minus_BRS amount (the green portion). See %%big-ticket outlays: 55-65 – dTanbinvest

Q: how much locked up is too_much_locked_up?
A: an amount (like 1000k locked up) that affects my big-ticket purchases.
A: no amount is “too_much_locked_up”, if I have no big-tickets in my old age

— Q: Considering long-term inflation (60~90), but assuming no liquidty needs, should I lock up this huge[1] amount in cpfLife?

  • optimist .. I will have work income into my 70s. Part of it, if in Singapore, will go into cpfOA and f4w
  • optimist .. Assuming no liquity needs, my everyday living expensese will Not experience inflation as high as in housing, medical, education,,,
  • if I lock away this huge[1] amount of idle cash, then my monthly payout would be increased by some $x amount. I could invest this $x into inflation-hedging asset such as stocks or FixD
  • Outside cpfLife, I will have other productive assets such as rental prop, dividend stocks

(involution)躺平[def]=barebones ffree #w1r2

Posted on by tiger40490

 

Set in the contemporary China context, This blogposts compares 躺平 to barebones_ffree, and then clarifies the fundamentals of involution vs 躺平, two popular but vague Chinese phrases open to interpretation and widespread misuse. Every writer on the subject has had to clarify them, otherwise they are pretty much meaningless.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/china-lying-lie-flat-low-desire-life-work-15152540 is the first article I read. Target group is young professionals in their 20s to 30s. The bbc1 article says “中产阶级的年轻人”.  (Other articles have different target groups. ) The same 躺平 actions and attitudes will, thanks to social media, gain currency at the _lower_ socioeconomic /strata/, but somewhat involuntary and under crushing force. That’s largely because of economic position. (Remember, micro-economics is all about personal choices.) In 10 years, I don’t know which target groups will be more associated with this phrase, but for the time being the most relevant group consists of highly educated, highly mobile and in-demand professionals in their 20s to 40s, basically the two generation after me. This group is more established, with more resources, so their 躺平 is less involuntary. more resignation than surrender.

處事態度具体内涵包括“不买房、不买车、不工作、维持最低生存标准，拒绝成为他人赚钱的机器和被剥削的奴隶”.  I have omitted those other attitudes drastically different from me. Still, there’s too much to read. In this blogpost, I will pick a few points relevant to me.

— sucessE, successZ
躺平 and 摆烂/bai3lan4 are popular among Chinese graduates and young parents, but actually Applicable across age groups. They are comparable to the broad definitions of successE and related to successZ.

— ffree based on minimalistic spending of the young elite
A 27-year-old architect in Beijing said she started saving as a teenager to achieve financial freedom. Same as me.

“From September 2020, when I saw all my savings had reached 2 million (yuan) (US$300,000), I lay down…” Nana said she turned down a job that paid 20,000 yuan (US$3,000) per month.