FLI25-specific #partial

 


— partial surrender for FLI25

eg: partial surrender $50774. Premum drops: $250774 -> 200k. Annual Payout amount to reduce proportionally.

You need to inform CIMB, pay off the loan 100%, then start new loan with proportional quantum. Hopefully LIR statys unchanged.

[25]CPF: 2channels: withdraw{55

This bpost provides simple binary framework. It is applicable to my and wife’s cpf withdrawals after 55.

Green_portion channel is irreversible, so use it as a last resort.

— channel: from OA

Right after RA creation, “excess” amount flows into OA. Any OA balance is 100% withdrawable any time, including subsequent salary contributions. OA becomes something like a bank account. No restriction like ‘SA top-up amount is not withdrawable’.

— channel: from the green portion of cpfRA. See [21]cpfRA for liquid parking@4% – dTanbinvest

ChannelX [eXchange with Sg frenz]

One of the best [1] channels of ex_China is ChannelX — I transfer Rmb from my China bank to a friend’s China bank

[1] best in terms of SAFE sensitivity, physical safety, SAFE quota.

In general I always want to buy SGD (lower); my friend always wants to sell SGD (higher). When we settle at a mid-market rate, I get a better (lower) price than UnionPay and my friend gets a better (higher) price than BOC or any remittance.

— the mid-market rate, treating SGD as asset:

  • banks sell-high .. Every day, Unionpay publishes a (higher) sell-SGD price
  • banks buy-low … Every day, BOC published a (lower) buy-SGD price for SGD remittance to China
  • .. PandaRemittance competes wth BOC, like a low-cost bank, offering competitive (higher) buy-SGD price

 

Posted in chn

cooked food inflation

j4 this bpost.. cooked food inflation is the most visible of all inflations.

After I returned from Japan, I visited food courts a few times. Cooked foods like 杂菜饭 in those places are getting expensive. Perhaps 10 or 15 years ago, I used to buy the same cooked foods regularly.

For everyone who needs to buy cooked food every day, this is bad news. However, on the flip side, this visible inflation bring out something good — It suddenly mad me appreciate home cooking .. cleaner, better ingredients, more nutritious, often 更好味道. For the same quality, $10 to $20 would be the price in those low-cost outlets. Fancy restaurants would sell even higher, for pretty much the same food.

Why did the Japan trip matter? Because in Japan I reminded myself to avoid all Chinese food. As soon as I was back in Singapore, I wanted to try Chinese food again. I went to a few places and checked out many Chinese foods. Then I came to notice the widespread inflation in cooked food.

scam>>authorized transfer

“If you authorize a transfer or send money to a scammer, there’s often little we can do to help get your money back.” — Bofa warning.

When someone stole money from my credit US/Sg cards, it was easier to get the money bank. I think law-enforcement was on my side. Those educational experiences, like an inactivated virus, served as a vaccination.

  • — unauthorized fund transfer
  • someone peeking at your 9dot pattern
  • someone guessing your password
  • wifi snooping of your credentials

HsbcLWA #

Small quantum is the key reason for my quick-n-easy decision


— Here are the key product features I have collected about HsbcLWA [HsbcLife_Wealth_Abundance], to be confirmed.

  1. I pay 5 annual premiums of 12k/Y, over 49 months (M1 M13 M25 M37 M49), and then wait for another 71 months.
  2. .. Free and unlimted prem holiday after 5th installment.
  3. surrender value is not so good within the initial (49+71) 120 months i.e. MIP i.e. the prison_term. The “early surrender penalty” improves with time, and drops to 0 after 120M
  4. my 60k would buy units of a chosen fund (switchable FOC among 60).
  5. NAV of the units determine my surrender value at any given time after 10Y
  6. death benefit .. based on the higher of NAV and total premium.
  7. monthly payout starts in M2, based on current NAV, and continues till age 99 of “life assured”
  8. both monthly payout rate and NAV will fluctuate
  9. Life assured .. would be my daughter… automatically assign to me.
  10. .. after some time, I may buy another policy for my other kid, at the same premium.
  11. (sustainable) payout .. is managed by PIMCO; death benefit is guaranteed by insurer. Surrender value is specified in the insurance contract and specified in terms of NAV.
  12. transparent expRatio 2.1 ppa during 120M… a real charge to my account, though I may not notice it. Improves to 0.6 ppa after 120M.
  13. 8% “startup bonus”

— two components
aa) a fixed-income mutual fund
bb) a simple life insurance with 10Y prison_term, without gurantee of 100% surrender value

The (aa) provides “lifetime” payout + a capital preservation better than cpfLife.
The (bb) provides death/TPD benefit and nothing much

— Overall product rating (most important on top) .. Comparing against CC) cpfLife and AA) my existing annuities and other products

  1. quantum: excellent. Comparable to (actually better than) one of my annuities [FLI250]
  2. prison_term: bad.. I can’t back out easily if I find the product unsuitable.
  3. .. between CC and AA. CC prison_term is “life imprisonment”
  4. sustainable payout rate: 6% is recent performance only. CC is the best, despite the declining bequest
  5. surrender value safety: no guarantee, unlike my existing annuities
  6. .. between CC and AA
  7. payout wait: perfec, better than CC and AA
  8. death benefit: acceptable. Better than CC

— prison_term .. is defined/enforced by the ESC (early surrender charges). Within MIP, a withdrawal by default incurs ESC as a penalty. Penalty amount declines over the 10 Y window, to become $0 after 120M.

There is 1 big flexibility + 1 minor flexibility.

1) Monthly payout is a big flexibility. Assuming 5 ppa payout, within the MIP I would cash out 50% of my initial investment 🙂

2) A minor flexibility .. two fee-waived partial withdrawls during MIP. Here is one realistic timeline.

  1. Suppose customerX pays 12k via five installments in M1 M13 M25 M37 M49.
  2. In M50, NAV is 55k (close to the 60k total premium), and she withdraws, free of charge, 6% of that i.e. $3300.
  3. .. NAV immediately drops by $3300, and monthly payout would follow the reduced NAV.
  4. A few years later, when NAV is 50k, she does her second and final 6% free withdrawal, of $3000.

Q: How did I come to accept the life imprisonment of cpfLife?
A: Indeed I might top up to ERS at age 55 and have 450k locked up forever. This is possibly irrational.
A: Note a quarter of my ERS amount is withdrawable if I pledge my property.
A: With CpfLife, I don’t worry about payout_rate drop, though it is absolutely possible within my life time.

[24]SG inflation affect`annuities #FLI15

 


k_FLI2

— SGD inflation.. affects cpfLife, FLI150, FLI250, FWD300

The further out you receive the $4472 annual payout, the less stuff it buys. Payout is not rising with inflation. A common issue with all bonds + annuities, which deserve a place in every portfolio. In 30 years, SGD may not be so strong, and imported inflation may become less well-controlled. Singapore is a small, open economy, tightly connected to the regional and global economy, so the local government has a bigger impact on this economy than the governments of bigger countries. Therefore, long-term inflation risk depends critically on government policies and performance… regime risk.

A true blue annuity product will feature a lengthy accumulation phase. It enhances payout rate (like 6% DYOC), to combat long-term inflation. On the flip side, the accumulation phase entails a prolonged prison term or slow breakeven.

Long-term inflation (beyond 30Y) is harder to predict. See my letter to Aaron in https://tanbinvest.dreamhosters.com/15331/ready-lifeincome-aaron/. So any payout received 50Y later has a questionable present value i.e. my family “may live in a very different world so would they appreciate a pocket money of $1000/Y  or $1400/Y or whatever?”

FLI2 is perceived by many as 90% a short-term bond, and 10% a true annuity. In the “10% scenario”, prevailing IR drops to 3%, then this annuity becomes cash-cow for some time up to 5Y.

==== FLI150

FLI2 = [Singlife Flexi Life Income II ]

  • $50,066 x 3 = $150,197 total premium payable in Sep | Mar24 | Mar25.
  • Annual payout: Mar 2026 to start receiving $4,472/Y until my passing. 2.98% of total premium
  • Upfront rebate: 3k+$3,129 by end of 2023, representing a 4%+ discount.

Annual payout consists of guaranteed 2.2% of SAss + projected 3% of SAss. “Once declared, considered guaranteed” because you receive “projected” amount in real cash. If actual payout drops below 2.98%, or if tBill yield stays above 3%, you can liquidate/surrender/cash out

Q: (sharp question) How does this deal compare with earlier annuity products like PLIP{Markus;ReadyLifeIncome{Aaron ?

  • Now in mid 2023 I have more spare cash
  • Now in mid 2023 I am not so keen about U.S. stocks like 300k ptf
  • #1 difference — liquidity i.e. quick breakeven in terms of surrender value

Liquidity .. Total premium amount becomes guaranteed from Mar 2026 onwards. Until then, surrender value was described to be $0. Therefore, _prison_term_ is 2.5Y from Sep23 to Mar26

Scenario 1: liquidate after first payout. Total “profit” is 6129+4472 coming out of $150,197 over 2.5Y