Author: tiger40490

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##jolts2tighten belt^勇敢花钱

Posted on by tiger40490

Whether it’s a reason to spend my savings or a reason for tighter-belt, each reason usually comes to me as a jolt, or sometimes a wake-up call. The more I internalize these ideas, the less of a jolt they will be.

[s=specific jolts.. much preferred]

— [G2] job insecurity .. If I lose this job, I’m forced to return to the U.S.

Stress job -> income insecurity -> tighten belt.

[s] During the December 2024 long chat with R.Dong, I felt his (hardly sustainable) work stress, the fragile boss-relationship, tough deadlines, PIP … all the stressors. They actually remind me of my GS, Qz,,, jobs.

— [G7] return to U.S. as family .. higher living costs

— [G3] long-term .. the uncertainty over long-term inflation
How much confidence do we have in the PAP team to control the omnipresent inflation hazard, and keep up SGD purchasing power?

— [G5] grandma .. may need to live with us in Sgp. She may need lots of medical care. Both grandparents need medical care already. I don’t need “projected” figures.

++ [G7<6] [s] oversized bonus .. invest meaningful amount in my productivity, home office, commute
A short-lived jolt.

++ [G7] [s] pay for more stress-reliefs, given our rising income

— [G9] barebones .. my ffree is barebones. I may gradually feel impoverished about it.

++ [G6] I disapprove the Chinese tradition of million-dollar inheritance .. it could deprive them of the motivation, the rewarding strugle, the confidence, and the self-learning adventure.

There are plenty of /documented/ hazards of an /oversized/ bequest. I can spend more time reading. See ## faking-> slow conviction-> behavior change

If my kids lack character then such a bequest is probably more harm than good.
— [G9] my kids may not become high-earners.
I would want to show them conserver livestyle .. tight-belt

— [s] med costs after MLP .. after I leave MLP, I need to prepare my family for medical costs, including my CAD check-up

++ CRBR: Financial advisors often point out that we only need about a million to retire

— [s] private schools .. my son may end up in some private school rather than a poly

++ NetAsset annual snap in recent years [ex_china, high pay] often show a large increment, but I remind myself to arrest the splurge impulse

++ Shiller: live more like millionaires

— [s] DJDJ pricing and care level increase

my frequent DJDJ visits .. is a smaller but more visible cost

++ I’m considering donations to “buy” social interaction in my old age.

FWD3+FLI25 #PFSA #commercial_annuity

Posted on by tiger40490

 

  • For both, non-guaranteed surrender bonus accumulates in an accelerating pace 🙂 Looks like timeIsOnYourSide. The longer you hold, the sweeter.
  • .. FWD grows a bit faster, by 1k/Y on average if you look at “non_guaranteed_included” column
  • — FWD
  • FWD Surrender value … entails up to 20% loss .See Risks section.
  • — FLI25
  • 3rd window .. 10M, better than FWD. LIR risk lower.
  • loan quantum .. 190k, better than FWD 228k. Both 76% of totalPrem
  • upfront .. 1%, inferior to FWD 1.87%
  • FLI2 guaranteed surrender value starts at 80% (200k) , growing beyond 100% after 30M. See BenefitIllustration
  • FLI2 death benefit 101%, lower than FWD 105%
  • partial surrender is a unique /option/ in FLI2

— my overall favorite i.e. asset to force-surrender last, asset to keep longest = Singlife

  1. clawback [f] .. (after N years) SSSSSSinglife … amount bigger than the upfront
  2. my confidence in payout commitment for first 10 years .. FFFFFWD as an eager new entrant [4]
  3. surrender bonus [f].. (over long term) FFFFFWD … will enhance XIRR
  4. worst case PnL .. (i.e. earliest exit) SSSSSSinglife way better , due to clawback + better quantum
  5. quantum .. SSSSSSinglife
  6. payout rate [f] .. FFFFFWD slightly better, partly to compensate for longer prison term, but I won’t “choose” it
  7. upfront .. FFFFFWD 1.87%
  8. LIR exposure .. during 3rd window. SSSSSSinglife wins, due to prison
  9. prison .. (years without 100%BrE possibility) SSSSSSinglife. 6M shorter powerless-regret phrase.
  10. death benefit .. FFFFFWD

Silvester pointed out FWD is the deal to hold long term, given those [f] items.

— all the risks .. With BGC, I overlooked/neglected currency risk. This time I want to highlight those neglected but realistic risks. This secion is gaining attention and importance.

  • LIR risk .. if LIR skyrockets (K.Hu #2), I need to surrender partially, or liquidate ASAP, or pay_down the loan as describe below. See am long LIR !
  • LIR risk .. if LIR drops very low, Wayne felt good for me as insurance annual payout would tend to stay up (FWD 3.38 ppa) for a long time.
  • inflation risk .. (K.Hu #1) affects all fixed-income investments. See my first bpost on FLI2
  • Giro operational risk .. esp. if I work overseas. A common risk in any monthly Giro / billPaymentObligation.
  • If I lose my job .. Luckly, there will be no pending /payable/. This payout would support family /livelihood/.
  • If I pass away .. FWD policy terminates with 105% death benefit (101% for FLI2), and loan paid off. simplicity
  • early-surrender risk .. surrender value can show up-to 20% loss if within 36M. See BenI.
  • projected payout risk .. see separate section

— “Projected payout” .. not as good as guaranteed. Similar risk in any long-term fixed-income.

FWD, Singlife, ChinaLife and GEL all give a top-line payout rate (like 2.98 ppa, or 3.55 ppa of total prem). I confirmed with Wayne of ICBC and Iris of GEL that this payout rate was computed from the annual payout amount in the 4.25% illustration column.  Clearly the sales team and the insurer treat this payout rate as a promise, not just a fake illustration. As such, Singapore insurer bends over backward to keep this promise. Singapore insurers do cut payout rate selectively, usually targetting the “expensive” policies first. These insurers (like TokyoMarine) once promised /unsustainable/ payout rates to early customers, and subsequently had to cut it. It is probably not a default event, becasue insurers have plenty of protective clauses in all official documents that give them leeway to cut bonus/payout.

The industry-standard illustrative return was reduced from 4.75% to 4.25% exactly for the goal of sustainable payout rate.

[4] FWD as an eager new entrant presumably has a large reserve to help prop up projected payout, at least for N years

See also my email [[cashflow situation]] to Silvester and [[GEL annuity with prem financing]] to Iris Pek

— which month to surrender … Comparing the two surrender scenarios, Singlife pays me up to 12M additional !
* FWD.. Cleanest month to surrender is right Before receiving annual payout. If you surrender 3M after that, then 9M clawback is factored into the surrender value.
* Singlife.. best done right After receiving annual payout. No “monthly” option. If you surrender 3M after that, then you would have paid 3M of LIR for no gain.

— Owner of policy  .. is CIMB. CIMB receive all annual payout, surrender value, death benefits … from insurer and forwards to me.

nomination, change of person insured … doable after you pay off loan and take over ownership.

 

simplify: cashflow juggle

Posted on by tiger40490

— simplify???? priority among cards: 1) cimb till 16 Apr 2) bocd 3) FnF dining 4) FnF @ NTUC

bocd .. wait for pacLight email in early Mar.

— event calendar

  • March bocd: pacLight email $0… “target” amount for bocd about $100. I will manage it myself, without wife
  • — mid Mar before flight:
  • maybank statement will show two cards, same balance. Pay off statement balance which includes $32.40 “charged by someone else”. $32.4 to be refunded as a credit.
  • proactive $xxxx i.e. bulk of FnF statement balance from DBS .. to avoid big-GIRO hazard, leaving $100+ for Giro. Simplify by paying After billPay, but not close to due date.
  • — Mar payroll
  • pay off scsc statement, not current, balance. Simplify by paying on payroll day or earlier
  • call scb .. reduce credit limit to 10k after Mar 50k
  • call Maybank (8a – 8p) … reduce credit limit to 10k after 24 Mar >> 50k
  • — Apr
  • billPay: SCSC, Rev, FnF

— Simplify: focus on (up to) 3 key points + some minor points

  • accept some FB-fees or other minor /missteps/
  • — minor simplifications
  • Rule: make proactive payment whenever ccard outstanding exceeds some threshold like 1k. Accept that such pre-payment amount would not be “productive”. However if the amount is unusually large, then we may want to delay the ‘proactive’ beyond statement date. With timing+coordination, this could relieve xjl pressures like FBF, late fees, pre-mature withdrawals,,,

— Q: if I become overwhelmed (with work, or family, or investment issues…), I would feel burdened and distracted by the “juggle”. How would I cope?

  • proactive on oversized ccard outstanding, or even lock up the ccard for a month

— biggest juggling stressors

  1. bx annual payments, esp. FLI150
  2. multiple cCards/PFL/PacLight: missing full payment .. exorbitant LIR over a short period of time
  3. cimb card promo

 

cost@living: compare cities #retire++

Posted on by tiger40490

k_PPP

Q: why are some locations more expensive but salaries are lower across many sectors?

As of 2025, I can see that Beijing/Shanghai price levels are well above half of Sgp but not wages.

It’s crucial to decide which job sectors to exclude. For example, in SG we exclude large portions of the workforce.
… Answer: They are low-wage foreigners, often on WorkPermit. Their low-cost roles in the economy help subsidize the cost of many public services in SG.

Answer: salary tax and company tax .. is a cost to employer. Employers pass on the cost to consumers.

Answer: home ownership is crucial in controlling accommodation costs. Sgp government manages public housing for citizens and PRs

I was surprised that SG public transport fares are fairly competitive vis-a-vis Chinese cities, let alone American cities.
… Answer: governments subsidize public transport. However, private cars are very expensive in SG because government levy on the rich.

Raw or packaged food is probably cheaper in the U.S. but
… Answer: __Cooked__ food is truly low-cost in Singapore due to SEAsia’s street-food culture. Actually, a lot of hawker stalls are taken over by Chinese and Malaysian immigrants, who continue to keep the price level competitive

Repairs are the most neglected but non-trivial cost.
… Answer: in general SG labor cost is lower than U.S. but higher than many developing countries.

— eg: SG vs NYC… SG has higher GNI per capita but lower after-tax salary than HK or U.S. In terms of economics on the ground, I think it has to do with cost of living including rental and home price. https://www.mylifeelsewhere.com/cost-of-living/singapore-c5119/new-york-c3934 is fairly realistic, based on UGC. Their data is presumably more consistent among U.S. cities and U.S. states. Further, I suspect the database is U.S.-centric and possibly limited outside the U.S. Due to the UGC demographics, the data points reflect a lifestyle of a young expat, clearly less frugal than me. At a conceptual level, this site ses a “basket” to compare two cities. You an see local prices in local currency, and derive your own ppp-fx.

  • gas/transit-pass/taxi costs are realistic
  • raw foods .. NY costs are overstated
  • accommo .. expat exclub
  • childcare .. expat exclub
  • clothing (tiny part of CPI basket) .. expat exclub. No China brands!
  • — Personally, I feel slightly richer in Singapore than U.S. due to
  • healthcare, med-bx.
  • car ownership (forecast)
  • college cost (forecast),

Overall, U.S. feels like a high-cost, moderate-tax, low-welfare country. Luckily, nutrition, bicycle, clothing, gadgets, repair tools … are very affordable.

— eg: SG vs HK … https://www.mylifeelsewhere.com/cost-of-living/singapore-c5119/hong-kong-c4452

 

##[25]cpfLife adv over private annuity

Posted on by tiger40490

See also

— advantage: fineprints are well-documented
CPF Life product feature is probably more stable, and better understood. Fewer hidden surprises.

Same (no such thing in private annuities) policy for everyone. Easy to find answers online.

As a auth UI, Singapass shares this advantage.

CPF Life is designed for the less educated. The CPF board is not out to take advantage of its own citizens.

policy fineprints stay the same for decades. (Some private annuities evolve with market, or go out of market.) As a result, I invested dozens of hours to document CPF fineprints in 30+ bposts.

— advantage: hotline + service centers .. CPF customer service is excellent — onsite, prompt help, similar to a local police or WalMart. The information provides is simpler to understand.

As a auth UI, Singapass shares this advantage.

— advantage: expRatio
CPF is not run for profit. If the commercial insurer charges 3% fee a year or has average 5% surplus return from investment, or pays the salesman a commission,  then with CPF Life, these sums would go back into the pool, enhancing the payouts.

Compare a bookstore run by a church vs a commercial bookstore.

— advantage: non-profit .. The insurer is CPF board which I trust more.

If the economy takes a down turn for CPF members, and the CPF Life becomes insufficient as a retirement plan, then I trust CPF would consider adjustments (bending over backward) to help the members. Retirement is the #1 objective of CPF board of a nanny state. In contrast, Allianz is a commercial operator and not a nanny state.

— advantage: (standard plan) stable payout .. monthly payout amount stays constant in the Standard plan, provided cpf int rate and mortality rate stay constant.  I heard this promise in a Feb 2025 hotline conversation, and I trust this “promise”.

In constrast my private annuities have weaker “promises” on payout rate.

The rest are questionable “advantages”, but often cited as advantages

— higher payout_rate .. becuase

  • descending death benefit .. “selling blood to prop up payout_rate”. CpfLife is a “descending annuity”.
  • .. I prefer the words “descending/descent” for its neutral connotation
  • 10Y accumulation at 4 ppa. Many private annuities have 10Y or 20Y but I bought three annuties with 3Y accumu phase.
  • low expRatio

— liquidity (double-edged) .. private annuities have surrender value, an exposure to scams and adult children’s (unwanted) plea for help

As discusssed in lock up100k]cpf, if you don’t need some 100k idle cash for the rest of your life, then why not lock it away in cpfRA permanently to prevent those issues?

UBS wealth report

Posted on by tiger40490

I think we will see this report featured in mass media year over year.

— https://www.straitstimes.com/business/household-wealth-rose-in-singapore-defying-downtrend-elsewhere-ubs-credit-suisse-wealth-report is a 2023 article that will disappear soon.

The annual study started in 2010 and aims to compare across countries and across decades.

2022 median wealth (net asset IMO) per Singapore adult was estimated at USD 100k (USD 99,488). In other words, half the Singapore adults own less than USD 100k per adult in net asset.

Q: does this figure look like underestimate or overestimate?
%%A: due to the longitudinal and international comparison, I think this is unlikely to be under- or over-esimated. However, the exclusion criteria for “wealth” is unknown to me, though I know they include each adult’s securities and real assets.

Why “per adult”? I guess that personal wealth is always held under a name, of an adult. An underaged person can earn an income but can’t own wealth.

bank::CCB: J4

Posted on by tiger40490
  • signature is all-cap, same as icbc
  • account name is per passport
  • somehow failed to bind to wcpay. Alipay OK
  • 95533 hotline 24/7
  • pull-interbank .. probably unavailable to passport holders

— todo .. Add CCB card to wcpay. Need to call wcpay.
— J4 yet another account i.e. CCB .. If no real j4, then we can leave it dormant… harmless

  • give this card to family members
  • USP.. webank-without-mobank-or-smsOtp. I hate the dependency on mobank app
  • no smsOtp for log-in
  • branch is near DJDJ

— 6m_inactivity require in/out transaction hitting the card

  • In CCB mobank, I set up the ICBC (but not psbc) card (as external bank card) and managed to pull R0.01 from it.
  • In ICBC mobank, I set up this CCB card and managed to transfer to it.
  • In psbc mobank, I set up this CCB card and managed to transfer to it.

In ICBC and PSBC mobank, I was unable to set up automated pull-from-CCB

In CCB mobank, I was unable to set up automated pull-from any bank.

— auth
log in for mobank/webank: t133xxxx similar to other China banks
no 9-dot to log in
no smsOtp to log in

ATM pin: 6-digit

Tested.. webank login name can be (1) passportNum (2) tigxxx0 (3) mobileNum [no smsOTP 🙂 ]

Office PC takes a minute to load..

[21]Sg income brackets #wealth

Posted on by tiger40490

See also UBS wealth report

— SG 2021: Monthly gross income (excluding employer CPF) for each full/part time employee, excluding non-residents. I prefer the MOM stat publication .. consistent format, enabling longitudinal analysis. Out of the 2021’s (roughly) 2,250,000 employees:

histogram cum
count(‘000)
Under $500 46.6 46.6 2.07%
$ 500 – $ 999 96.1 142.7 6.35%
$ 1,000 – $ 1,499 191.4 334.1 14.86%
$ 1,500 – $ 1,999 162.1 496.2 22.07%
$ 2,000 – $ 2,499 184.7 680.9 30.28%
$ 2,500 – $ 2,999 182.1 863 38.38%
$ 3,000 – $ 3,999 330.5 1193.5 53.07%
$ 4,000 – $ 4,999 237.1 1430.6 63.62%
$ 5,000 – $ 5,999 186.8 1617.4 71.92%
$ 6,000 – $ 6,999 125.1 1742.5 77.49%
$ 7,000 – $ 7,999 99 1841.5 81.89%
$ 8,000 – $ 8,999 82.6 1924.1 85.56%
$ 9,000 – $ 9,999 52.4 1976.5 87.89%
$10,000 – $10,999 62.7 2039.2 90.68%
$11,000 – $11,999 31 2070.2 92.06%
$12,000 – $12,999 25.9 2096.1 93.21%
$13,000 – $13,999 18.9 2115 94.05%
$14,000 – $14,999 16.9 2131.9 94.80%
$15,000 – $19,999 55.2 2187.1 97.26%
$20,000 and Over 61.7 2248.8 100.00%

— SG 2018: Monthly Household Income from Work , Excluding Employer CPF Contributions

  • 50.0% of 2018 households earn 7k or less from work.. #45.6% for “includingAllCPF”
  • 26.2% of 2018 households earn 3k or less from work.. #24.5% for “includingAllCPF”
  • 64.6% of 2018 households earn 10k or less from work #59.3% for “includingAllCPF”
histogram cum
Households With No Working Person 12.1 12.1
Below $1,000/month 2 14.1
$1,000 – $1,999 6.1 20.2
$2,000 – $2,999 6 26.2
$3,000 – $3,999 6 32.2
$4,000 – $4,999 6.3 38.5
$5,000 – $5,999 6 44.5
$6,000 – $6,999 5.5 50.0
$7,000 – $7,999 5 55.0
$8,000 – $8,999 5.2 60.2
$9,000 – $9,999 4.4 64.6
$10,000 – $10,999 4.2 68.8
$11,000 – $11,999 3.6 72.4
$12,000 – $12,999 3.1 75.5
$13,000 – $13,999 2.7 78.2
$14,000 – $14,999 2.4 80.6
$15,000 – $17,499 5.1 85.7
$17,500 – $19,999 3.2 88.9
$20,000 and Over 11.1 100.0

Singlife SSP #tips

Posted on by tiger40490

Every insurer/bank’s system has its idiosyncrasies, and can present a burdensom/recreational complexity. I find myself relying on the Singlife self-service portal more and more.

— FLI250 policy is owned by CIMB. Due to privacy, Singlife (hotline or SSP) will NOT disclose any details to non-owners like me.

— log in to MySinglife, not CustomerPortal

— Somehow, when I receive the sms instruction to check mydoc on SSP, I sometimes don’t see the doc

to see your police full listing, go to Insurance -> Policies.

The Insurance -> coverage (the default page) is less useful 🙁

— payment due dates .. each policy shows NextDueDate, but not the Giro date.

Giro date is in SMS (no log-in required) but you will need to save it somewhere.