Category: ffree

towards financial freedom

(involution)躺平[def]=barebones ffree #w1r2

Posted on by tiger40490

 

Set in the contemporary China context, This blogposts compares 躺平 to barebones_ffree, and then clarifies the fundamentals of involution vs 躺平, two popular but vague Chinese phrases open to interpretation and widespread misuse. Every writer on the subject has had to clarify them, otherwise they are pretty much meaningless.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/china-lying-lie-flat-low-desire-life-work-15152540 is the first article I read. Target group is young professionals in their 20s to 30s. The bbc1 article says “中产阶级的年轻人”.  (Other articles have different target groups. ) The same 躺平 actions and attitudes will, thanks to social media, gain currency at the _lower_ socioeconomic /strata/, but somewhat involuntary and under crushing force. That’s largely because of economic position. (Remember, micro-economics is all about personal choices.) In 10 years, I don’t know which target groups will be more associated with this phrase, but for the time being the most relevant group consists of highly educated, highly mobile and in-demand professionals in their 20s to 40s, basically the two generation after me. This group is more established, with more resources, so their 躺平 is less involuntary. more resignation than surrender.

處事態度具体内涵包括“不买房、不买车、不工作、维持最低生存标准，拒绝成为他人赚钱的机器和被剥削的奴隶”.  I have omitted those other attitudes drastically different from me. Still, there’s too much to read. In this blogpost, I will pick a few points relevant to me.

— sucessE, successZ
躺平 and 摆烂/bai3lan4 are popular among Chinese graduates and young parents, but actually Applicable across age groups. They are comparable to the broad definitions of successE and related to successZ.

— ffree based on minimalistic spending of the young elite
A 27-year-old architect in Beijing said she started saving as a teenager to achieve financial freedom. Same as me.

“From September 2020, when I saw all my savings had reached 2 million (yuan) (US$300,000), I lay down…” Nana said she turned down a job that paid 20,000 yuan (US$3,000) per month.

 

bachelor→pff: how I adapted #80marks

Posted on by tiger40490

I’m trying, unsuccessfully, to transfer my burn rate habit to my kids. Meimei seems to be listening.

My income is much higher than bachelor years, partly due to salary inflation. My family burn rate is also much higher, with inflation playing some unquantified role.

I have largely avoided the white elephants of many middle-class families — cars, private/international schools, golf, high-maintenance landed properties, maid, big loans,

Background: An author mentioned that we all face cashflow challenges as singles [1]. We face even more when we get married and have kids[2]. (Based on no definition) Out of 10 singles on (cashflow) high ground, fewer than half would remain on high ground in [2], rather than falling off.

Paradox: my single burn rate (c++US etc) is less than 25% of my family burn rate. I won’t go in-depth because I think the explanatory factors are fairly obvious.

This blogpost can easily become forgettable and hardly /distinguishable/ from similar blogposts. Sharp questions might be more valuable (than answers)… They represent perspectives, angles of view.

As to the answers, most will be valid, relevant but forgettable. I won’t try to make all of them /memorable/. My preference is to avoid vague items, separate out the important but familiar items, and focus on unusual items.

Q2: what strategies and habits did I carry over from single’s life /transitioning/ to family life?

  • saw a clear distinction between liabilities vs productive assets (cashcow). Liabilities include debts [mtg, student loans..] and white elephants like cars
  • — forgettable answers
  • steadfast focus on expense regulation [control ]…. rather than a target-amount of nest egg for investment. Jolt: My nest egg was a by-product.
  • .. ctbz? Probably more effective on the big-tickets like cars, rent cost, vacations
  • .. just_say_no to FOMO, exclub, creep, splurge,
  • maintained my salary … better than anticipated, despite churn, age discrimination etc

Q2b: what adaptations did I have to make for the transition?

  • a focus on published stats of median household income in the city, rather than a hearsay guesstimate of my peers’ burn rate. That guesstimate is 300% of that median.
  • — forgettable answers
  • exp recon .. a key “regulattory device”, adapted to family finance — no mean achievement. Virtually no one in my circle reached my efficiency, even though many heard similar suggestions about budgeting, tracking/recon. Without hard evidence, I believe that most of their budgets hit ineffective excusion. Many overspent for decades.
  • in 2008-2017 childcare costs threatened to /derail/ everything. Somehow, wife and I have managed to /contain/ this fire

Actually 2008-2009 pff situation in NY was a tough adaptation in terms of brbr, expense control, rent,,, On the flip side, the experience built self-confidence.

Q3: besides my skills, what other factors contributed to our current cash flow high ground?

  • grandparents didn’t become a financial burden
  • frugal wife
  • kids didn’t demand too much
  • medical expenses moderate

Q: what can my kids learn from me? Some say that financial skills are more valuable “heritage” than physical inheritance.

Q: in my answers, why are investments, NNIA conspicuously missing?
A: I guess they have played a background/supporting role so far. See the blogposts in cashflow projection. They don’t affect my day-to-day cashflow.

1998bachelor’s fin-health #tuxedo

Posted on by tiger40490

update:

The trigger/inspiration — discussion with Jun.Z’s son, and other recent graduates.

In 1997 or 1998, I met an NUS EEE graduate one year above me. In his sleeveless tuxedo, he was running his own tiny company with a young employee. He had been doing that since graduation, and had never worked for any employer. In hindsight I assume he was unmarried and staying with his parents.

He was the first among my peers to make this breakaway observation:

“In this place and at this time, NUS engineering graduates like us can always find a job as long as we aren’t picky. But In this place and at this time,  we don’t really need to worry about livelihood, so why do we need a salary in the first place?”

His words were backed by his action, which left a lasting impression on me. (Among other things, I started watching my Fuller Wealth growing progressively towards 20Y, and later quit my job.)

On the bright side, my cash flow self-assurance in my 20’s was not based on exclub but based on FullerWealth, brbr, benchmark to median household income.. all valid criteria in the 2020s.

On the less-bright side, there was a pervasive [1] but largely unfounded, hearsay /apprehension/ among my cohort of recent graduates.

  • mate selection .. is ALL about exclub
  • home purchase .. 3BR needed, according to peer pressure .. “2BR won’t be enough for a growing family”.
  • .. In Chinese cities, this pressure was/is even worse than Singapore
  • parenthood .. SGD 1M/child according to peer pressure, including some $300k “needed” for college
  • .. In U.S. middle-class, the college price tag is even worse than Singapore
  • medical .. my mom said something like $100k (四十万)
  • inflation (+retirement) .. threatened to shrink each (saved) dollar by half every 20Y or so.
  • — my career worries as a young techie
  • “My income is not rising as fast as my cohort” .. but based on what data?
  • “My skillset is not broad enough. I’m boxed in and have a single narrow skillset compared to my cohort…” but who?
  • not learning enough, not competent enough
  • short runway .. by age 30 I am expected to be competent, independent, possibly a team lead
  • long struggle ahead, over 40Y
  • too many career choices… “Is this domain right for me? Will I regret?”

Q: how has my idea of livelihood changed since?
A: first hand experience convinced me how little I actually need in each area, in terms of livelihood. I now see those second-hand beliefs are absurd and illogical. This is MY breakaway from the conventional wisdom on livelihood. In terms of livelihood, it’s somewhat similar to that tuxedo guy’s breakaway observation.

As I told Jun.Z’s son, At that time I had basically no savings (before I started saving like crazy.)

Q: how has my livelihood (cash flow high/low ground) changed since?
A: My living standard has increased with a growing family size, but my brbr has remained healthy. Beside having a family and growing old, my #1 biggest change since 1998 is my career longevity [including a projection of lifelong cumulative salary].

You may say “Hey, you have limited evidence of your career longevity projection. Countless derailers could pop-up.” I think differently. Rather than naming some achievement, some milestone as the “#1 change since 1998”, I pick career longevity. The future is more important than the past.

[1] So widespread and profound that it was impossible to stand firm and unaffected… 三人成虎. Even today, I need to stand resolute against a similar brainwash about branded college, SDXQ, home upsizing. As discussed with Tanko, one major misstep (mis-punch on my punch card) would cost my current comfortable ezlife on my cash flow high ground.

%%take@6 levels@ffree #minimalist/tenuous

Posted on by tiger40490

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrae/2019/04/09/levels-of-financial-freedom is the best among 5 articles I have read, all from the US perspective. There are many hints of “ffree as a state of mind” even if you choose to keep working for purpose, engagement,,,

Some may refer to my ffree as tenuous ffree / barebones ffree, fledgling ffree or minimalist ffree.

— Level 2 means “quit your job for a break, if not permanently”.  This level of freedom is … (extremely) valuable when you worry about bench time i.e. temporary job loss.
— Level 3 is valuable yet neglected. “immense sense of relief when you are earning enough to save, doing the things you enjoy and still having extra at the end of the month.” I think a majority of the audience (Americans and other nationalities) of this article experience real difficulty saving consistently. I achieved Level 3 long ago.
— Level 4 (time freedom) is the least appreciated level, important to me and many of my fellow busy dads. More time with family, more paid leave, flex time, shorter commute, WFH

— Level 5 basically means “downsize your current lifestyle to a basic/modest retirement”. It matches my bare-bones ffree. It also matches the crbr 3k/M plan.
This bizTime analysis of burn rate probably corresponds to below Level 5.

— Level 6 means “retire at the current lifestyle“. I feel for many of my U.S. peers, this is a huge gap above Level 5, unless your current burn rate happens to be modest, like mine. (Level 7 or above is irrelevant and unneeded .. unnecessary luxury)

  • Claim: you need to invest in stocks since young.
  • Observation: many countries’ public pension-like system pays you only a fraction of you “current” burn rate. My parents pensions are adequate.
  • My Rule #1: be realisitc about retiring in style (Level6), and don’t aim at current burn rate. Excluding healthcare and housing, aim at half the current burn rate.
  • My Rule #2: from young age, take up the legwork to find long-term solutions for old age housing and healthcare.

As to stock investment, I don’t know the reliability for the purpose of long-term cash payout. What if you buy at the peak, and need to wait 20Y for a recovery? If I give myself 30-40 years of accumulation, I think only U.S. stocks are able to clear that high bar.

======= original publication =====
When you read articles about financial freedom, you may hear people drone on and on about how they are spending practically nothing so they can retire at a younger age, like 30. Conversely, they may have already achieved financial freedom and are bragging about how frugal they were so they could retire well before the typical retirement age.

This is what I hear. Sell all your stuff, except for a tent, and move to the woods so you will never have to pay rent or utilities again. Joking aside, I actually come across a blog that promoted dumpster diving for food. No thank you! Realistically, most of us will not want to do the things required to retire at 30, 40 or 50. In fact, many people who are reading this likely are not saving enough to maintain their current standard of living during their golden years, if they retired at the age of 70. It pains me to report that about 21% of people have zero, zilch, nada saved for retirement, according to the Northwestern Mutual’s 2018 Planning & Progress Study.

Planning for retirement, or even financial freedom, is a marathon and not a sprint, as the saying goes. Breaking up your financial independence goals into small chunks can help keep you on track while making the process a bit more manageable and, hopefully, a little less stressful. Even if you are starting small, the important thing is to get started.

Here are the seven levels of financial freedom that you should work towards achieving.

— Level 1: Not Living Paycheck to Paycheck
The first level of financial freedom is building up an emergency fund. Ideally, this will include paying off any credit card debt as well.

Unfortunately, living paycheck to paycheck is the reality of millions of Americans. According to the Federal Reserve’s Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2017, some 40% of households could not cover a $400 unexpected expense. Most of us will have some unexpected bills pop up throughout the year such as car repairs, medical bills and nights out drinking with friends. Having an emergency fund will come in handy during those types of situations.

— Level 2: Enough Money to Quit your Job (for a bit)
Financial freedom is all about making work an option. Saving enough money to quit your job forever is a huge undertaking. Accumulating enough money to be able to take some time away from working is a big jump in that direction. This does not mean you have to quit your job, but it sure is a good feeling to know you can.

For extra credit you may want to save up for a sabbatical or extended vacation. I dream of spending a month, or two, in a foreign country each year. By no means will I be quitting my job, but it would take some planning in order to be away from my financial firm for that long.

In the shorter term, that extra money could also serve as your emergency fund. I mentioned that just in case some of you wanted some extra motivation to get to this level.

— Level 3: Enough to be Financially Happy and still Save
This is a bit more about enjoying your life and having the money to do it. There is an immense sense of relief when you are earning enough to save, doing the things you enjoy and still having extra at the end of the month.

That extra cushion can be used to move up your financial freedom date. That of course assumes you avoid increasing your lifestyle and spending it.

— Level 4: Freedom of Time
What many people desire is more flexibility with their schedules. Freedom of time and financial independence go hand in hand. Together, they are about leaving the rat race to follow your passion, or spend more time with family, and not going completely broke doing it. It could come in the form of more paid time off, flex time or perhaps working remotely on occasion. Not having to take a day off from work just so you can visit the dentist or take your kid to the doctor could be a huge benefit for some.

— Level 5: Enough for a Basic Retirement
Do you know anyone who hates their job? I mean really hates it. I have met a few over the years as a financial planner. Those individuals were willing to do almost anything to retire as soon as possible. Some considered things like moving to a foreign country with a low cost of living, selling their home or getting roommates. I should point out that those people were closer to full retirement age.

For those of you looking to retire early with financial freedom, think about what your bare minimum retirement would look like. Could you move to a place with a lower cost of living? Would you give up going out to dinner? Work towards a nest egg that will support this bare-bones lifestyle. You probably will decide against moving to that cabin in the woods without running water, but it might be nice to know you could. Considering your bare minimum retirement, and knowing you have enough money saved to at least cover some standard of living in your early retirement, will also influence other life choices you may make along the way.

Would you lease a new luxury car if you knew it meant you would have to work a few more years? Downsizing your house might look more appealing if it meant you could retire now rather than in 10 years.

— Level 6: Enough to Actually Retire Well
Assuming you are doing pretty well and are happy with your current standard of living, what would you need in order to maintain your standard of living in retirement? Knowing you are on track to accumulate a nest egg to support that lifestyle is a big win. Gold medals go to those who have accumulated enough assets, or passive income streams, to be in a position to retire well.

G5 real essentials 2fend off hardship #Khmer

Posted on by tiger40490

See also: livelihood[def2] x-class #S.Liu describes a higher standard of livelihood, closer to the standard of my peers.

Trigger 1: The Mr Money Mustache’s blogposts like the reason he is NOT selling the website highlight the wrong priorities of many high-income individuals… reminds me of My inferiority against the Managing directors, the rat race, the race to top schools and branded colleges…

Trigger 2: As described in burn rate: 80%@median family income: wbank^BT #Khmer, the Khmer villagers lead truly happy lives without high education or healthcare. So that begs the question — just what are “important” (essential and beyond) to these villagers and their happiness?

Q: what are the top 5 “provisions” important to an individual’s livelihood, that constitute my level of bare-bones ffree? The MMM’s ffree is presumably similar, but not MY criteria.
— priority: healthcare
— priority: adequate education for the young — at least 9 years. Ideally provided free for the poor
— priority: retirement — cash flow to last 25Y, to prevent the retiree falling into hardship
Note low inflation is a pre-requisite.
— priority: basic housing — in safe, sustainable environment, free of hazards. Housing is the most elastic item in this list
— All these priorities are taken care of in the case of MMM, ERE author and other early retirees. Are there other financial needs?

recreation? Free recreations require resourcefulness and imagination. You can cycle (most sustainable) to nearby places or take public transport.

In https://www.getrichslowly.org/early-retirement-extreme/ ERE author Jacob said “We consider spending money a failure to solve our problems by smarter means.”

— PAP government .. I think SG government has the right priorities in terms of the most important livelihood provisions for the citizens.
CPF is related to most of the priorities below
— “African Americans must want to be successful” .. In this Jared Kushner comment “success” is undefined but has many overlaps with the priorities in this blogpost.
— life chances .. Most of these priorities below are related to “life-chances”, which is the missing ingredient in most impoverished communities, including inner cities and the Khmer village.

Earn/Save/Invest: excel@2 out of 3 #reckless investor

Posted on by tiger40490

 

k_investor_selfEval

A blogpost on FIRE-in-SGP introduced this concept to me: Earn/Save/Invest — you need to excel at 2 out of 3 i.e. doing better than average. Then you could achieve FIRE. I like the simplicity.

Note “excelling” at Save means “strong savings discipline”, with a large cash reserve, similiar to Sg government.

Note: Wise investor is not reckless. Aggressive investor doesn’t always excel at investing.

Beware peer comparison. Some people would be good at all 3, but usually there’s not much we can learn from them !  Specifically, those who Earn well would seldom Save a high percentage, but their absolute Save amount is still substantial. What can a low-earner learn from them? So some peer comparison on Earn/Save/Invest would be counterproductive.

— Earn+Save -> superior brbr
This type includes people who invest very conservatively or keep lots of cash.
If someone good at Earn/Save and invest heavily into SP500, then she probably falls into Earn/Save/Invest triple threat.
— Save+Invest with limited income .. the FIRE theme
How about Save/badInvesting, with a contingency reserve more than 3Y worth of living expenses? This buffer would protect against the investment disappointments. In an disaster, this buffer could save the ship.
— Earn+invest with limited cash reserve .. is the most popular combination. However, it’s important to point out most of us are not going to earn 3 times the median household income, any time soon. (If you earn 2.5 times the median, but save just 10%, then your surplus is 25% of the median income.)

I think my sis might be in this category.

Beware of Earn / lowSaving / aggressiveInvesting. I feel this is quite common. If the aggressive investing is currently profitable, then the individual would tend to increase risk appetite. If in the red, then the low contingency buffer would be a weakness.
— me

  1. I’m A on Save. Not perfect in teaching my kids
  2. I’m B on Earn. Easy to benchmark — You can reference the national income distributions. My biggest hidden strength is career longevity, based on healthy longevity.
  3. I’m C+ on invest, measured by my own standard (leaning towards current income). No universal benchmark here.

C means “decent”, “good enough”; D means “barely enough”; F means Fail.

##[22]realistic Macro economic risks2threaten ffree

Posted on by tiger40490

This analysis takes effort. Here’s a modest start. I think without in-depth and comprehensive analysis, my bare-bones ffree is built on shaky ground and naive. My passive income and low burn rate is not a boundless umbrella capable of keeping out all /hazards/ —

  • asset country risk — what if Cambodia or Philippines gets into trouble and property market collapses? Capital control?
  • local market risk — (SnD) say BGC market, or BKK1 shop units
  • credit risk —
    • My rental income is “guaranteed” by developers. If rental market sinks and a developer fails, then my unit is still in usable condition, but I would lose the bulk of my rental income and need to earn the same amount (a few thousand only:) as salary.
      • Therefore, it pays to reduce over-concentration on one developer.
  • Currency risks — suppose I’m retired in Singapore, and PHP or USD weakens. Luckily, my SGD rental income is in SGD.
  • inflation risk — Singapore is hopefully well-managed. Lucky my overseas/local rental incomes rise with inflation
  • other SG country risk — what if the economy declines? What if rental demand declines? I feel U.S. rental demand is more robust than in SG.

Luckily in addition to the (SG/SEA) rental incomes I have diversification of incomes in the form of stock dividends.

See also the ffree derailers. In contrast, today’s blogpost is macro-level.

— Macro risks often affect thousands or even millions of people. I would not feel so bad. With BGC, FX risk affects tends of thousand of investors. With khm, country risk affects thousands of investors

With my Brazil HY/PE, credit risk not macro risk was the problem, affecting dozens of investors.

— another factor: For my bare-bones ffree set-up, One of the biggest uncertainties is predictability of (in/out) cash-flow.

Every investment has uncertainties aka risks. Experienced investors often categorize dozens of known risks into a handful of categories. The grouping is mostly conceptual and arbitrary.

As Wallace Xu said, rental prop mgmt probably needs the owner to stay local and learn the legwork. This should reduce (not eliminate) the cashflow risk.

Q: Singapore government did a scenario planning exercise. Shall I do the same?

On the other hand, there is a common “non-believer” tendency to cast doubt over any long-horizon cash-flow analysis. Even after we compile and analyze all the “hazards”, the non-believers still say that there are big “unknown hazards”. Some people even worry about the credit risk in insurance policies.

Well, I did live without a salary for 3 years.

There’s reason to believe that compared to other governments, Singapore government will continue to be more caring, more attentive, more resourceful, more frugal.

##[19]ffree derailers rated #resilience

Posted on by tiger40490

See also

To have any chance of lasting value, this blogpost need a _scope_ and must not become /indiscriminate/. In this personal finance blog, I won’t say too much about livelihood risks. Now let us shift our focus to ffree derailers.

This bpost is at least “w1r10”.

— intro .. Insurance and emigration companies put out subtle marketing messages portraying their “products” as the main protections in a person’s life, but that’s 喧宾夺主

  • 1) health and 2) cash flow are the twin primary livelihood risks in our lives.
  • Family stability (and harmony) .. is the third risk factor, a distant third in some traditional families, perhaps decades ago.
  • PIP, (kids’) grades … are two big derailers in some lives.

In contrast, some of the adversities listed below are outlier (black swan or missteps?) events i.e. highly unlikely. They are nevertheless worth knowing. If you don’t pay attention, they are more likely to hit you.

— ffree derailers .. All of these adversities demand financial resources and can drain my reserve. In some of them, a single misjudgment/misstep on my part could threaten to weaken or break a pillar beneath my lifelong foundation..

  • [v = too vague.. Can be more specific]
  • [3 := Pr(hit in my lifetime) ≈ 10^-3 =0.001 (three leading zeros). This numerical estimate depends critically on the qualifying criteria. Many criteria below are vague 🙁 and does not deserve this numerical estimate]
  • [0 := Pr(hit in my lifetime) >> 10%]
  • [$ or $$ = level of livelihood/financial impact. Within a given item like injury, there are many levels of financial impact. Here we try to give a (highly imprecise) estimate of the upper limit. No $$$ please]
  • [F = the later we hit the derailer, the Fwd Hazard Rate improves i.e. less impact ]
  • — half ranked by severity, and logically grouped .. Heaviest derailers sinking down (No precise composite sort key please.)
  • [5 $] natural disaster hitting my properties esp. BGC [criteria: $100k cost]
  • [5 $$v]Misstep: juvenile delinquency… before age 18 [criteria: criminal record]
  • [3 $$] Misstep: criminal offense …… often due to 一念之差 (misstep) [eg trespass, Genn’s fraud?] [aa]
  • ..[F] The later it hits in my career, the less financial impact it would have on my remaining career 🙂
  • ..[4 $$] Misstep: Immigration offense -> GC implication? I think you won’t get a chance to explain or appeal. Luckily I can always work in Singapore. This can only happen when you are in U.S. before receiving GC. Staying in SG, you reduce Pr(hit).
  • [3F $] minor misstep: personal trading breaches contributing to job instability .. In the grand scheme of things, this disaster is much smaller than criminal offense or immigration offense
  • [1F $$] minor swan:/oversized/ loss …. (100k) on property investments. I have already hit 10k losses.
  • —- accidents + illness, where medBx is crucial
  • [3 $] misstep: driving mistake injuring SomeoneElse….. need liability insurance [criteria: financial liability. A much lower (severity) criteria than above]
  • [2 $$] misstep or swan: injury (partly) due to driving mistake ….. [criteria: hospitalization within my family, in my lifetime]
  • .. Can I minimize driving? I guess I need heavy practice to improve, before I reduce driving !
  • [3v] minor swan: kids’ injury …….. before age 18 [criteria? how serious? Let’s be vague]
  • [1] misstep/swan: bike accidents …. or personal accidents. [criteria? hospitalization within my family, in my lifetime] Handicap is rare but more likely at an older age.
  • [3 $$v] swan: major medical …….. what if a family member needs a lot of acute medical help but not hospitalized and not due to aging? Very vague:( [criteria: 200k out of pocket]
  • [0 v]  swan: minor medical ……. kids’ health, wife’s health, my health.. [criteria? out-of-pocket 20->40-50k cumulative cost for a given condition, in my lifetime] These minor health issues are multiple times more likely than accidents of equivalent severity.
  • ^^^^^
  • [0 $] issue like sis’s where father had to put in all his savings for rescue 
  • [2 $] Misstep: drug addiction …….. [criteria? need professional including medical intervention by age 30 ]. More widespread than juvenile delinquency or minor medical!
  • [F $$$] disastrous Misstep: divorce …. high probability + huge impact. The later it hits in my life, the less financial impact.
  • [0F] salary instability …………. remains the #1 derailer, even though (paradoxically)  ffree is defined for zero dependency on salary. [Criteria: drop by half and half again before 70.]
    • age discrimination, churn/evolution
    • PIP? Usually doesn’t lead to salary instability if you are in-demand.

[aa] For the minor offenses, hopefully I get a chance to defend myself in front of employers, but sometimes the background check could immediately get you  disqualified without a chance to explain. Sounds scary, but Pr(hit) is below 10^-5.

The big list demonstrates that the most likely missteps/swans are less severe whereas the most severe missteps/swans are rare. 

There are other /uninsurable/ disasters to derail my ffree “dream”. How much more money would you need for those? 10M? Forget it! Below are some of my practical “defenses”. “Resilience” is my favorite word here rather than “protection” which sounds more lazy, passive and more reliant on external protection.

There is some overlap with random list@protections and other lists, but the below list is focused on resilience against disasters, and more about cashflow.

  • #1 resilience strategy — career longevity=Bedrock@ %%fledgling ffree
    • Better keep learning and keep applying your skills. If you retire for a while then forced by a disaster to /unretire/ (i.e. come out of retirement and rejoin the workforce), you will hit an uphill worse than the uphill facing those loyal employees
  • resilience strategy — invest in the “Singapore_hedge” to hedge the risks of rejection_by_US_job_market
  • resilience strategy — buy time, slow down and blunt the impact of the disaster. Some situations would improve gradually as my family adjusts to the situation
  • resilience strategy — bx? continue to spend some time on review
  • resilience strategy — diversify “productive” investments generating regular income + increase contingency reserve
  • resilience strategy — identify retirement destinations with reliable, low-cost health care such as MYS

t_utopia^t_carefree^ ffree^ezlife #horizon

Posted on by tiger40490

A link to this blogpost: ffree^carefree^cashflowH/L ground

In my blogs, here are 4 related terms, ranked by durability

  1. carefree .. the current (half-year period) stress /profile/, largely based on ffree
  2. .. (not a tag) ezlife .. the broader lifestyle over a 3Y horizon, largely dependent on carefree
  3. T_utopia .. black-hat [critical, cautious, often negative] examination of my state of carefree, peaceful satisfaction/bliss, over a 3Y horizon. As a tag, this is more selective than T_carefree. Even broader than ezlife. Warning: “Utopia” has extra connotations.. See ##homegrown English terms #rikigai
  4. ffree .. strictly financial. “Temporary ffree”? Never

— In terms of cash flow

  • carefree ezlife .. very short-term. Ezlife can come to a quick end.
  • Cash flow high/low ground .. slightly less short-term, based on brbr math, Fuller wealth
  • ffree .. long-horizon like 20Y, dominated by big shocks and hazards like black^white swans.

Therefore, real ffree is a high bar … see NAV 一辈子花不完@@ 3 factors .