[18]ffree=state@mind #peers diff

See also ffree ^ envy+FOMO

6 levels of ffree is one of the first articles describing the liberating self-knowledge that “I can retire now if I want to”. Financial independence is based on easy elementary math — Without salary from work, match up your family burn rate against your Savings + Income.

This elementary math has to be a projection over a long horizon, but over long term there are many uncertainties. We tend to overestimate our predictive power on medical, inflation, property depreciation … We tend to underestimate the amount of uncertainty/volatility,  black/white swans. See also NAV 一辈子花不完@@ 4 factorsTherefore, for me financial independence is really a state of mind. I often feel peaceful and reassured by mathematical projections based on

  • income — rental incomes + rental spread + CPF-life .. but beware of attachment
  • income — shields
  • expenses — burn rate … due to detachment
  • asset appreciations — Beijing, Cambodia, BGC, SG .. but beware of attachment

Actually for me, “financial independence” has a modified math definition — “without the pressure to work, match up … .” Due to the modification, my peace of mind has another pillar

  • I’m capable of, and will enjoy, working till my 70’s

Q: Am I too attached?

Yes to my property assets
yes to my health, which will eventually diminish
yes to my robust career prospect, which will eventually diminish

— Q: Strip away the exaggerations, the superficial, the unfounded, what are the measurable, rock solid, real differences between me and my cohort in terms of ffree ?

  • I record/reconcile my burn rate over decades, and have higher confidence in my forecast.
  • I have a reliable nonwork income in cpfLife and HDB rental, not counting other rental properties.
  • I often feel free to (and actually did) choose lower jobs. I don’t think many in my cohort feel that same level of freedom.
  • Based on straightforward calculations and SG public data, I have no worries about medical, retirement income, long-term inflation. I think many of my cohort are not so care-free. These are big components of long-term ffree.
  • — Here are some subjective assessments:
  • I have no plan to save up USD 300k/child for college
  • I say and feel I can stop working any time .. Statement 1
  • I say both parents can stop working indefinitely and my family can live a reasonable, comfortable life .. Statement 2.
  • I sometimes say that I have more money than I need for my lifetime .. Statement 3.
  • ^^^ My circle of a few dozen friends never say these things. Am I serious? Yes. I didn’t say what kind of family lifestyle that Statement 2/3 entail.

 

43R and ffree

Q: To target Level 5 of ffree, how much nonwork income do we need as a renter family?
%%A: USD 5k compared to SGD 3k.

However,

  • rental cost goes up as kids grow older
  • health insurance cost goes up faster than inflation
  • college cost suffers inflation

Q: without counting overseas incomes, how much U.S. pretax rental income would cover taxes and provide bare-bones ffree?
%%A:  6k? Note median family (probably pretax) income is below 7k/M (80k/Y) according to https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEFAINUSA646N

Q: so the 43R owner are already financially free?

my take on FIRE

update: FIRE doesn’t pay enough attention to disasters…

There are countless (too many) online discussions of FIRE, largely in the U.S. context, and largely among younger bloggers (See https://www.forbes.com/advisor/retirement/the-9-fire-blogs-you-should-read/).

I find the discussions less relevant to my situation, given my limited bandwidth, but I remind myself to never dismiss inputs from young people or inputs from other cultures. Once a while, I could find relevant pointers, perhaps in car choice and college choice.

— peers influence

In the U.S. I will be surrounded by Chinese and Indian peers. They represent a negative influence on me in terms of FOMO (kiasu, consumerism).

Similarly, I think my wife felt a form of pressure living in Newport among the rich and educated white-collar young moms.

With my unconventional choices, my journey would be a lonely journey, unless I find like-minded and rational voices in the FIRE discussions. Those who write a lot (like the bloggers) tend to be fairly rational like me.

defenses (financial++)? Largely missing from FIRE discussions, various defenses (cushions, buffers, shields) form the bulk of my planning. The rest of my planning covers popular, mainstream topics like savings rate, nonwork income, brbr,,, These topics does relate to my defenses but my focus on defenses is not shared by the FIRE discussions.

The bedrock of my defenses, the bedrock of my financial planning is career longevity — FIR-End@life.

— parenting cost — is seldom discussed. An elephant in the room.
— withdrawal rate — is present in CPF-life, not in my current FIRE planning.
— Social security — is less reliable than CPF
— Malaysia — (and China) is a viable option for my wife and me, if our long-term planning turns out less successful than anticipated.
homesteading is most popular in the U.S. but not every early retiree likes it
— healthcare — is country-specific. The U.S. discussions (not a lot) is largely irrelevant.
Beside the long-term costs and the major hospitalization costs, every outpatient medical cost can add up a lot

–Inflation — is a key risk missing in some FIRE discussions.

Gold can offer effective protection, but is seldom discussed. I think the FIRE guys may dislike the carry cost

U.S. inflation is higher than Sg.

— stocks — is a prominent feature of the FIRE discussions. I think many of my U.S. friends also rely largely on stock portfolio. Most of them rely on index ETF.

Worth learning.

— alpha males: MMM, Jacob (ERE) and the leading FIRE bloggers are all alpha males with

  • health
  • intelligence, talent
  • education, wide-ranging practical knowledge mostly self-acquired
  • mental and physical energy, endurance
  • formidable intellectual resource to compensate for whatever financial resources they have accumulated.

In contrast, the regular guy has much less capacity to pull it off.

ffree for half of your (working) life@@

See also at what age I started feeling closer 2 cashflow freedom@@

Q: how many percent of my full-time or part-time working life will be ffree?
A: hopefully 70%, from age 43 to 75 (32 years) + 3 years during my bachelor years. So 35Y out of 50Y

Until recently, My answer was “below 10%”. It was hard to imagine financial freedom i.e. “不想做工就不做“ as Liangzhong put it.

Q: how many percent for my peers?
A: below 10%, perhaps the final years before retirement. I think many don’t even look forward to retirement, even if it is ffree. In contrast, I enjoy my ffree because I don’t need to spend so much. I enjoy high BR buffer ratio and being in-control.

— Q: why do most of my peers spend bulk of their working life toiling under livelihood pressure, and reach (some form of) ffree so late?

  • most of them have one (or more) big max-tenor mortgage
  • most of them (Chinese) also pay for their kids’ college
  • many of them also struggle to save up for a Crbr (couple retirement burn rate) higher than my SGD 3k Crbr
  • looking at Earn^Save^Invest: excel at 2 out of 3, I feel many struggle with Save.

ERE author #homesteading

Partly based on ERE: The 10Y udpate

  • USD 7k/Y burn rate can support a meaningful lifestyle, but he needs a lot of skills, a lot of meaningful hobbies to keep engaged
  • favor free sight-seeing locations like walk/cycling in the natural
  • small home is easier to maintain
  • learn to live without car, even in the U.S.
  • learn to cook simple yet healthy. Fish is the best animal food — not cheap but easy to cook. Jack He singled out steaming; I like microwave

This author had a lot to say about “where to spend the time meaningfully after retirement” esp. if travel and grandchildren are out of the picture.

— One of the G3 central ideas, possibly the #1 in Jacob’s philosophy was “the renaissance ideal of spending your life mastering a productive level of competence in a broad range of subjects. This arsenal of “renaissance skills” would then be combined into a mutually reinforcing web-of-goals, which made living more interesting and balanced — but also more cost- and resource-efficient and resilient in the face of the growing complexities and uncertainties of the 21st century.”

This is remotely similar to “develop all your potentials.” or self-actualization.

This ideal is simply unimportant to me. This fundamental difference is probably at the heart of my resistance to many tips from Jacob.

Actually a lot of the things Jacob spent his life on are really for fun rather than productive, such as sporting (including sailing), watch making, tool-making,, The modern economy depends on specialization, rather than everyone making his own tools.

Why doesn’t he learn to diagnose and treat all medical conditions, and even make medical instruments from raw material? That would be more practical, more productive.

Yes his and many FIRE blogs show justifications for acquiring a wide range of easy, practical (widely useful) skills, but there is a balance between versatility/resourcefulness/self-reliance vs specialization. Modern economy is built on the efficiency of specialization. I may learn tax preparation or car troubleshooting, but I won’t learn a lot of other skills.

— homesteading — is a full-page chapter in ERE: The 10Y udpate
Homesteading is one of the G3 foundations (“rite of passage” as Jacob put it) in the U.S. FIRE movement  but not necessarily in other countries. Singapore doesn’t need this skill — I will stick out my neck to say this.

DIY demands a certain level of interest and capabilities. Jacob said repeatedly that maintenance is not his favorite, not enjoyable, though his woodworking skills developed over several years. Jacob sees himself as an intellectual. So do I.

I am also uninterested in many DIY tasks, though I feel proud on my DIY achievements.

career_longevity= bedrock@ %%fledgling ffree

See also

Paradox — Fuller wealth and ffree are defined in the context of zero salary, but my ffree is fragile. So, paradoxically, the bedrock of my fledgling ffree is my career longevity, such as but not limited to dev-till-70, health and vitality. Look at LKY and my dad in their 80’s.

More than a “shield“, this is a bedrock and a foundation. I like the vivid imagery of shield and bedrock.

I think many of peers (such as Jason Fu) are very pessimistic about dev-till-70 (not career longevity). I feel sad for them.

Both missteps and swans (external disasters) are “covered” by this shield.

— non-monetary benefit of career longevity are extremely important.
I want a purpose, engagement, interaction
— nonwork income? Much less reliable than career longevity. I’m more skeptical than pessimistic
medical cost cushions? mostly I rely on my SG citizenship
Am I a cautious optimist? I think it’s better than pessimist.
— citizenship is the 2nd bedrock, providing multiple benefits
— my burn rate control is the soil around the bedrocks, almost invisible but always there.

Fuller^ExClub: 2 indicators@wealth

See also exclusive clubs: disqualified despite comfortable Brbr+FullerWealth , defining the notion of “exclusive clubs”

See also sense of rich/inferior is mostly driven by peer comparison, which pitted FOMO vs livelihood. In this blogpost, we compare two definitions of wealth:

  1. ExclusiveClub wealth — (a.k.a. net worth bracket) based on comparing with the Joneses. A club of strongmen of comparable strength to lift the same heavy weights. The standard heavy weights like “nice” homes, branded colleges, “quality” vehicles, enrichments, personal trainers, first-class vacations
  2. Fuller wealth — based on modest or efficient or conserver burn rate.
    • “Instead of heavy weights, try lifting your own body weight”. A lightweight guy can lift himself easily, as his strength relative to body weight is higher.
    • “Livelihood” is the key word

In everyday conversations, “wealth” refers to the 1st, but once a while the speaker mean Fuller wealth.
— SG vs US — I feel SG citizens are wealthier by Fuller Wealth, but NY residents are slightly wealthier by ExclusiveClub wealth. Here’s why.

Aha – For a resident in a given country, subsidized education, subsidized healthcare, subsidized home ownership, Denmark-style income security … contribute to her Fuller wealth, but none of these contribute to her ExclusiveClub wealth in the home country.
— low vs high ground — Fuller wealth determines whehter you are on cash-flow high ground or low ground.

Exclub sometimes lies. You would think every member of the club are on high ground, but some exclub members actually spend all and carry heavy debt, trapped in the earn-spend cycle.

If not under cash flow pressure, these exclub members are often under work pressure.
— inflation
Aha – local inflation (including globalization reducing min cost@basicHealthy Food ) affects your Fuller wealth but doesn’t really affect ExclusiveClub wealth. Inflation aggravates the heavy weights for every strongman. Food cost deflation simply drives ExclusiveClubs to consume fancier food.

Transport inflation is kinda unavoidable, but not food/clothing. In a high-inflation period, some very cheap choices are often available — basic-healthy. So I would say Fuller wealth erosion can be managed if you lead a frugal existence.
— How is investment impacting each definition?
I feel current income from investment is crucial for Fuller wealth.

Exclub tends to focus on net worth.
— Earn/Save/Invest — Fuller wealth doesn’t emphasize Earn. Exclub demands lavish spending and trashes the saving habit.

##unaffordable but truly desirable things #discussion with son

As I told my son, I do window-shop once a while. Most of the things I look at are within my purchasing power, but I usually don’t buy right away. I need to evaluate my need, the alternatives, long-term value etc.

Now I think this question reveals and /spotlights/ the  huge gap between Level 5^6 of ffree

Q: Is there one thing that I really want but can’t afford?

  • a/c every night during summer
  • better home in the U.S. — I desired a reasonable size (1000+ sqf) home with excellent commute. Also good neighbourhood for kids. This is by far the biggest big-ticket item.
    • Rental demand is valuable but not necessary, can be a feature of a separate rental property.
  • better home in SG — yes better rental yield; workout facilities nearby.
  • sturdier car in the U.S.?
  • private or charter school
  • personal trainer? I prefer self-reliance.

needed$3mil 4ffree: what changed since2015 #JL.Yuan

In a 15 Nov 2015 mail to JL.Yuan, I wrote ..

“Financial freedom/security is the term you used. Many people ask how much bank balance would provide  the freedom/security, and our answers are usually disappointing, like 3 million… I feel it’s more healthy, more stable, and long-sighted to shift my focus to career longevity.”

In a 23 Apr 2021 follow-up mail, I observed that my position on financial freedom/security… has changed since Nov 2015. My position has become more grounded, based on real observations, less on hearsay and marketing propaganda.

  • #1 change: medical .. I now rely on medishield. In addition, I will maintain a tiny reserve ($20-50k?).
  • G3 change: CPF-life .. (paying out from 2039 till I die) can provide sufficient retirement income. In 2015, the same payout amount was dismissed as insufficient
  • G3 change: Inflation .. was a long-term concern and depends on the chosen home country. This worry has subsided for the “Singapore plan”, after witnessing Singapore inflation since 1991
  • no change: I still want to work till old age, perhaps as a developer till 70, and a lower-gear job till 85
  • change: longevity goal .. I now aim at 95
  • change: college funding .. is no big goal for me, and ironically the biggest departure from my cohort’s mainstream thinking.
  • change: NNIA .. (nonwork net income from assets) has increased. We talked about it before.
  • change: retirement destination .. Now I like the idea of roaming retirement between familiar low-cost cities (like Malaysia +  Chinese cities) to cut my monthly burn rate. Hopefully, My Singapore home can be rented out long term.
  • ^^^ bottom line: bank balance to provide financial freedom .. Given sufficient NNIA (cpf-life + Singapore HDB rental income+..), adequate healthcare, I (didn’t calculate but) guess $400k-$800k might be enough to support the family from now on, without any salary. I no longer feel enslaved by a huge savings goal of $3,000,000, presented as the price tag of “financial security”.

3pillars@%%PFF plann#health

Long-horizon Financial planning, either pre-retirement or retirement planning, is all about uncertainties. These Uncertainties get foggier the further out you plan ahead. Some people give up in frustration, but I spend lots of mental energy mapping out the key drivers and identify the stable, predictable factors.

It’s important but tough to look beyond the medium-term challenges such as job security, college funding, ,,

At the core (and the base) of my long-horizon financial planning, here are the three beams:

  1. burn rate (incl. medical) in SG context. Actually SG feels fairly stable.
    • for my financial planning, day-to-day burn rate control is more important than monthly saving rate
  2. passive income — diversified, well-hedged
  3. healthy and in-demand — requires long term planning