SAFE[外管局] surveillance applies across all TT, FX cash withdrawal and all 购汇 [currency conversion]. SAFE Surveillance “model” is a blackbox for our speculation. Frequent or large TTr -> higher risk of surveillance? No one knows for sure.
HSBC staff pointed out frequency of transfers IS acctually a SAFE parameter. Favor fewer larger transfers rather than frequent small transfers.
Q (to HSBC.cn): Suppose every year I deposit exactly $50k then transfer it out to Singpaore, will SAFE model grow suspicious after a few years?
A(from HSBC.cn): Fine if you declare USD salary as ultimate source of fund. No (historical) evidence required.
Risk of hitting 证明材料 is higher during TTr than during 购汇. So Channel520 and ChannelA are relatively safe.. no “purpose” required by SAFE.
SAFE Sensitivity ranking… a 2024 summary of ex_China.xlsx:
- channelM i.e. TTr for China citizens
- USD withdrawal .. Can try 6M after the 7 Jan freeze of grandpa
- channelH i.e. cash deposit then TTr for passport holders
- channelA for China citizens .. relatively small amounts each time
- buying USD without withdrawal .. no fund leaving the local banking system. Low sensitivity.
— official Purpose .. When buying USD on mobank, you can choose any “purpose”. Recorded in system, but no surveillance check at this juncture.
When you TT or withdraw, bank system would send a realtime request to SAFE. At this junctur SAFE model (not human) would decide in real time whether to demand relevant evidence (证明材料). If it does, you would be stuck.
- medical purpose .. I hope we could show our Singapore medical bills.
- education purpose .. I hope to get a pdf doc from an international school showing my kids’ name or my name.
- tourist purpose .. a common purpose but may not be good for GP/GM.
— individual’s profile in the surveillance system .. Just about everthing Any national citizen does is captured by the SAFE surveillance system. If you get questioned but shows a clean profile [background, history], then enquirers would presumably give you the benefit of the doubt for the first offense. Grandparents have clean profiles. My profile is clean .. consists of HSBC.cn deposits and global transfers.
Sugg: Protect your profiles. Stay below their radar. Don’t attract attention like breaching 100k/Y ChannalA quota, frequent overseas transfers.
Luckily, Channel520 is traceless and not captured in the profiling “system”. Channel520 is by far the safest (except the USD withdrawal) because SAFE has no idea of When, From/To and HowMuch.
ChannelA is relatively low-risk. I think ChannelA is widely perceived as similar to “card purchase overseas”. However, anyone hitting close to 100% of quota gives the appearance of fund extraction, and can trigger the SAFE model.
— If multiple individuals send to the same account, then risk is higher. Yong.Yang shared a personal story — 8 individuals (eight, all Chinese nationals) each sent $50k to One overseas account. SAFE suspended all of their individual permissions for 2Y, but still released the 400k (50k x 8) without financial loss.
- Better ask wife to open a USD account in ICBC.sg.
- HSBC.sg
- Boc.sg
- Citi.sg .. $3/check?
See email to sister about Peter Tan.