Just_Say_No to creep,peerPressure.. #PerTrain

Saying NO is one of my G3 most important principles in ffree, burn rate mgmt, long-term fin-security.

median household income & middle-class living standard is one of the first blogpost to introduce this JustSayNo principle.

SG government probably follows the same principle many times, but I won’t digress.

— eg: branded college and SDXQ home
— eg: retirement burn rate .. cpfLife ERS pays out about $2200/M, considered adequate for a Singapore retiree. I think this is a reasonable, sensible assessment. What if many among your cohort are building bigger nest eggs to provide $5k/M of retirement income? Would you feel the pressure to match up? This pressure is comparable to the pressure to buy a SDXQ home [Orchard mansion]
— eg: In 2011 or 2012 I hosted Haitao.Fu in my Newport home. I bought 3 small dishes from a nearby Chinese restaurant. One of them (toufu?) we didn’t finish — I kept the clean leftovers for my next meal. I have recalled this experience many times. I feel the /splurge/ peer pressure in hindsight.

I may or may not be right to assume him as a relatively thrifty student. He didn’t show any negative reaction about our meal but now I assume he has moved to higher positions on WallSt… In hindsight, I feel he might have been shocked by my thrift, even though the meal was way more than basic-healthy!  I probably spent USD 40. In hindsight, I feel a more “decent” delivered meal would be 50% higher. Leftovers would be … discarded?

— eg: Personal Trainer (fitness)
At OneNorth office complex, I visited a fitness center that offers nothing but PT (personal training). Minimum membership is $1800/12 PT sessions. If you earn a decent salary nearby, then you would probably consider this package. Now, suppose most of your colleagues have signed up. They tell you various reasons. You accept some of those reasons, but ultimately unconvinced. Some may point at LKY’s attitude on casinoIR and remind me that “Time has changed”. I think I am not old-fashioned, and would consider to accept that package if the $cost/benefit ratio improves. At the current price level, the ratio can become acceptable if I perceive significant benefit in the package vs the alternatives.

  • alternative: You could try jogging on the street near office (unappealing to me). Re Wayne St…
  • alternative: You could do some simple workout in office, or at home. Re Wayne St.
  • alternative: You could join a regular gym somewhere farther out, for $100/M.

At the current ratio, I would say it’s really important to justSayNo. Even if I earn 20k/M, this salary is /unsustainable/ in X years so now I need to spend like ordinary locals and save. Their business model (designed for the super rich) is too costly for the nearby office professionals.

Yoga membership is comparable, but per-session price is about $15 (compared to $150/PT)

why $5k[2016]→ $4k/M[2020] #tax

The basic limitation of longitudinal  burn rate analysis is the exclusions. A trendline requires a consistent rule on exclusions. In reality, during 5 years my exclusion rule would be different from the previous or next 5 years. If we don’t address this limitation, then trendline is meaningless and misleading.

I have been tracking family burn rate for a few years. In 2015-2016 it was above $5k/month, excluding transfers, mortgage or UChicago fees. If excluding IRAS then about $4~5k.

Note: IRAS was up to $700/M, averaged below $500/M, complicated by baby bonus rebates.
Note: transfers to grandma or wife are usually spent on household.

In 2020/21 the average is below $4k/M excluding transfers, IRAS, cigna prem. It’s useful to investigate the improvement, and hopefully strengthen it. Luckily, with financial numbers it’s easy to drill down to uncover the exact reasons. Here’s my high-level explanation.

  • ⭝MindChamps .. was $900/M.
  • ⭝flights + restaurants .. was once close to $1000/M, nowadays below $300/M. After covid19, this expense will increase.
  • ⭜insurance premium .. is  higher nowadays, perhaps by $400/M
  • ⭜piano costs ..

— In 2022, our burn rate is likely to inch up to $5k, hurting our Brbr.

In Feb 2022, I told wife about $9k/M but using different exclusion rules:

  • + I record about $4k/M as the headline burn rate
  • + $1800/M is transferred to wife and usually spent
  • + IRAS about $900/M
  • + mtg interest cost will be $500/M assuming 1.2% pa interest rate.
  • + mtg principal repayment about $2k/M

MRT card #

— overcharge .. How to manage the increasing risks of overcharge

The SimplyGo claim/communication legwork .. Usually tedious but uneventful, but can be stressful (albeit a low amount), confusing, frustrating.

Fact: A successful tap is indicated on the fare gate LCD display. No change on that screen means unsuccessful tap.

  • #1 Serenity .. I tend to be obsessed with overcharge. Serenity to accept small wastes [$2/M] just like electricity? Yes, though I prefer zqbx without obsession
  • periodic check .. of transaction records.  This might be the only available monitoring. Less than ideal. Legwork, missed mistakes to be accepted with serenity. I feel the (fare) imprecision is widespread, presumably baked-in (or builtin) to maximize peak hour throughput. The imprecision policy leans towards overcharging (the default) rather than permissive undercharging. Such a policy leaves the onus of /vigilance/surveillance to poor commuters.
  • Wallet can have multiple cards. Better disable paywave.
  • if you suspect you missed entry, then you face two alternative risks
  • .. if you go out without tapping [1] you run the risk of over-charge for “missed exit”
  • .. if you go out by tapping, you run the risk of over-charge for “missed entry”
  • ^^ So if time permits, it’s prudent to check before exit, but how? Best at entrance station control

[1] tailgating? Given that so many commuters get overcharged so many times day in day out, the enforcement system probably won’t arrest you for occasional fare evasion.

— to disable paywave.. is non-trivial. There are always some  forgettable consequences, which could come back to haunt us.

  • NTUC cCard blocked for payments, but still good for linkpoints. MRT? Pending
  • DBS dCard can disable paywave, and leave only ATM feature
  • No way to “disable paywave on OC dCard, but still use it at Shaw” 🙁
  • No way to disable paywave on smrt cCard.

— wish list (for an Ideal MRT card)

  1. I don’t want noisy transaction history in bank account. Ideally no transaction .. use cash top-up instead.
  2. .. For Mastercard, fare charges will be accumulated for up to 5 days or after a total of $15 is spent on transit fares, whichever is earlier.
  3. .. For Visa and NETS contactless bank cards, fare charges will be accumulated daily.[1]
  4. not needed for any other usage such as ATM, so no need to take out this card
  5. LG2: easy top-up
  6. easy to replace after expiry

[1] I think this is tricky. The system accumulates fare charges without real-time checking on credit limit, probably for peak-hour latency. When it posts acumulated charges to the bank, it could be denied. In this scenario, the restaurant (SMRT) has served the food and the guest has left, so SMRT has to accept the free meal. In contrast, in a real restaurant, there’s no need for sub-second latency, so each payment is checked against credit limit in real time.

Loss .. TheReality: In our lifetime, which commuter would never lose a MRT card? Probably none. It’s a question of when not if.

  1. to minimize loss: low stored value (debitCard has none :). The probability and amount of loss is actually low, and many simple-lifestyle individuals keep $50+ and treat it as a cash card, but this cash card has no PIN protection and is prime target of theft.
  2. to minimize loss: Have my name on the card. Whoever pick it up is likely to return it to station staff.

Acceptable choice: the old nameless ezlink card, but need to check the expiry date

snapshot frq ] exp-recon

snapshot frequency/interval: monthly or two-monthly snapshot, rather than semi-annually (daunting to recall full details). The spring-cleaning analog — twice a year was too hard in terms of recon (see below), so we procrastinate. On the other hand, once a few day could add up to excessive tcost. Better Strike a balance.

— not too infrequent.. On 8 Apr 2021, I discovered a recon mistake committed a few days prior. As a result, there’s a $46 unexplained out-going. I spent an hour+ but unable to track it down. The last reliable snapshot was 14 Mar 2021, so window was narrow like 25 days… not too bad. What about a 99D window? Much worse if we hit such a rare mistake,

— Longer (than one month) interval between snapshots proved acceptable so far:
Scenario 1: After I wrap up a 33D interval, I often experience low incremental effort extending to 36D, then 39D.
Scenario 2: After i wrap up a 15D interval, I won’t allow myself to “close the chapter”. I often feel the (unwanted) pressure to extend the chapter.

$400/M comfy lifestyle ] c++US #S.Liu

You wrote

A research found that a sudden setback of your financial situation could be one of the most severe causes of stress (the other top ones are finding yourself in a terminal disease, death of your child, divorce, etc.).

Yeah.. adjusting to a 20% drop in net asset is stressful, detrimental… (What if an earthquake inflicts a 20% drop in most your peers’ net asset? See https://tanbinvest.dreamhosters.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=14830&action=edit.)

In my case, adjusting to lower living standard is no big deal. In 2017-2019 when I worked in U.S. alone, my burn rate was $11,400 over 28 months ($400/M) excluding rentals and transport [+driving practice].

Very comfortable living near huge beautiful parks, abundant yoga classes + gym visits + cinemas, sightseeing trips in NY/NJ, Chinese and Indian restaurants at least once a month in U.S. and Singapore.

Q: What did I sacrifice? How was my spending different from peers?
A: No car (except zipcar), no health insurance, no big home, no repairs, no utilities. My reunion trips to Singapore provided enough vacation + fine dining.

Result? I saved a lot, and became really healthy, almost fighting fit both physically and on coding tests.

On one 16-hour flight I took no nap, and spent half the hours reading c++ and laptop-coding in my tiny seat. 5 years earlier I tried several times but could never achieve the same as it required tremendous mental and physical stamina. So after that 16H trip I knew that I had reached possibly the apex wellness of my life.

During that period, I moved home and stayed in 4 locations, and stayed/worked in 4 cities, and maintained a $400/M burn rate.

Actually I was not extremely vigilant, and probably overspent occasionally on food, cinema,,,

Coming back to your point, iFF indeed I can cope with cashflow constraint, then I would have a lot of built-in flexibility in my career and financial situation.

Q: is my $400/M lifestyle realistic for the average Americans?
A: I think so. Remember the FIRE leading lights like MMM? Fundamental adjustments needed.

Q: as a family of four, how about USD 1600/M burn rate [excluding housing + transport]? Not the focus of this blogpost. My kids may be very different from me. I have an uphill battle to train them up.

y parents buy expensive gears4kids’ new hobby

I always laugh at the middle-class Singapore parents who buy high-end equipment whenever their kids start learning a new skill

  • musical instruments
  • art equipment
  • sports gears
  • multimedia gadgets

Now I ask myself

Q: what’s the priority of a middle-class parent? I guess answer is motivation, commitment. Some of these parents are not mindless — they are mindful of the psychological effect on the child.

Don’t forget a small percentage of the equipment has a resale value.

own`family car]SG: white elephant

https://www.budgetdirect.com.sg/car-insurance/research/car-ownership-singapore


k_X_car_dependency

Q: Looking at the stats below, what’s the need/motivation for a car in the family of Kevin.A, kun.H, Jun.Z, yu.Lin, and all of my 92S27 classmates

Based on very limited observations (not “evidence”) I will stick out my neck and venture to offer my opinion that it’s possibly lifestyle creep. Many of my friends live in condos located far from public transport. I guess a lot of HDB dwellers and office workers are in familiar situation — owning a car mostly for leisure and convenience of the family with kids and grandparents. If (a big if) my opinion is valid, then

  • it helps explain their cash flow stress level.. brbr, Fuller wealth, early retirement
  • it helps explain their worry about the impact (not “likelihood”) of job loss .. high monthly burn rate. Re OC survey 2020. In contrast, Raymond can last years without a job.
  • it helps explain their housing preference .. they use their car to discount the commute tcost. Well, tcost is a hard cost and can’t be discounted!
  • Let’s remember the the other tcosts — stuck on road; maintenance; insurance; paperwork; recon on bills (remember BGC rental)
  • it helps explain their lack of time for exercise.. In contrast, non-drivers walk longer for commute, and some commuters stand or even do yoga in MRT.
  • it helps explain why SGD 200k spare cash pile is not easy or common for them.. they would use this “pile” to pay off car loan or upgrade to a better car

In (tentative) conclusion,

  1. I think I’m better than many of these car owners in terms of earn / save / invest.
  2. perhaps car ownership is really valuable to them. If no more than “marginally important”, then it’s a huge waste of resources — both $$ and time.

— stats .. As of 2021, Singapore has

  • 577k personal-private cars excluding taxi/private-hire cars
  • 68k private hire cars
  • 15k taxis
  • 142k motorbikes

As of 2018, 35% of Singapore households owned at least one car (presumably including private hire cars), down from 42% in 2013, presumably due to Grab etc.

— Convenience .. is a lubricant and important to my life as well. Convenience is very subjective, not rational .
Convenience comes at a $cost. Some people are willing to sacrifice brbr (like 2 to 1.5) for convenience, but I won’t.

— 150k / 10Y total cost of car ownership … I won’t spend too much time. There are many breakdown analysis online, usually including loan interest.

  1. https://dollarsandsense.sg/2018-edition-cost-owning-car-singapore-10-years/ uses a $94k model to derive –> SGD 157k over 10Y. A 2022 POEMS webinar also used this estimate.
  2. https://www.singsaver.com.sg/blog/car-maintenance-cost-in-singapore#final uses an $80k model to derive –> $12557/Y * 10Y + $19155 for Y1 = $145k over 10Y

##benefits@every$1spend@NTUC: demystified

— Information as of 2023 .. $2925 annual spend should earn $117 in the form Linkpoints i.e. 4%. 4LP/$1 spend consist of

a) A 2% upfront of their purchases (up to a cap of S$6,000 annually) in Linkpoints at point of purchase.
.. part of the 2.5%

b) 2% Additional patronage rebates , which will be disbursed in Linkpoints for their spend in the following year (May~Jun) as approved at the Annual General meeting of FairPrice, not NtucUnion.
.. 9 May 2023 is the first time in NTUC history that APR is paid out via (12,000) LinkPoint. In contrast, on 18May 2022, I received my APR in cash not LinkPoint

— The full list of cashback for every $1spend@NTUC:

  • 2.5% linkpoint for every $1 spent, credited upfront
  • .. I was earning 2.5% immediately after each purchase, up to 10 Aug 2022
  • 0.83% linkpoint for every $1 spent, credited @1st of following month … (Apr 2023) verified on https://www.link.sg/profile/linkpoints
  • up to $0.08 for every $1 spent, iFF charged on MB ccard

— Fairprice rebate .. Available only to NTUC union members who hold 20 shares of Fairprice.

  • — For 2021 spends
  • $0.04 for every $1 spent, credited in May to bank account, capped at $240
  • the 2.5% was 0.5%
  • — From 2022 on wards
  • additional rebates for every $1 spent, issued in linkpoints the following year
  • Compared to 2021, there is better transparency on the eligible spends because they earn 2% upfront (part of the 2.5%) … more doses of delight

A lot of webpages have outdated info including NTUC union roadshows.

Giro failure prevention

Background: Since early 2020s I have kept a low balance [1k+] in #108 .. actually insufficient for some oversized Giro deductions [3k+ for ADL insurance].

The stres after a Giro failure … is preventable. Hard deadline. Hard interruption to whatever I was focused on.

Over the long horizon… As I grow older, Giro failures would be a low but burdensome complexity. Giro failures are usually recoverable since Payee institutions are usually lenient/flexible. Reason — Among their thousands of paying customers, there will always be some percentage hitting Giro failures.

Sugg: calendar reminders. eg: MyCarePlus every Feb

##[23]taobao accounts

j4: Sooner or later I will need to buy stuff for grandparents in China. Better set up the account well in advance, given the complexity. Much more stressful dealing with them when you need to buy stuff in a hurry.

I decided to keep both accounts because the “system” is not so flexible. (Aha.. On Paypal and Monster I also have two accounts for two countries.) When I buy from Singapore, I will use the SG account.

loginID or mobileNum can’t be used with password auth 🙁

SmsOtp login is less reliable because taobao system often fails to send it.

— alipay binding..

I don’t know which account is bound with my alipay account. However, when I login to taobao via alipay QR code, I entered the China account.

I guess any taobao account can bind to an alipay account… Can try binding my alipay to wife’s taobao account.

— hotline… I need an effective hotline. Vivo, routers, Starhub and many banks offer imperfect hotlines but usually better than nothing.

ChnM has arguably more customers than taobao and is able to offer effective hotline support!

— card binding

I hope to use my Chn onshore accounts, rather than my ccards.

— SG account | +65-9xxxx | gmail

  • email/password tested 24 Sep 2023.
  • recovery questions set

— Chn account | +86-我爱死你 | @mlp.com

  • email/password tested 24 Sep 2023.
  • recovery questions set
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