two ETF yields: gotchas

k_ETF_assetClass

Now I feel that expRatio is more reliable than div yield [non-standard calc]

— capital gain distribution .. a sister to dividend-from-asset distribution
The more common distro is the dividend-from-asset distro. The asset can be a dividend-stock or a bond or another “productive” asset.

The less common distribution is capital-gain distribution.

https://www.poems.com.sg/glossary/investment/capital-gains-distribution/ and  https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalgainsdistribution.asp explain that a fund is required to pay out proceeds from the fund’s sales of stocks and other assets from within its portfolio.

— Partly based on https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/content/evaluating-etf-yield

Investors may be surprised on the next distribution date that the yield has “decreased” due to circumstances unrelated to investment income from the ETF’s underlying security holdings. This may stem from the yield calculation being used or other variables affecting the yield expression.

The 30-day SEC yield is based on a standardized calculation, while trailing twelve-month distribution yields (TTM) may be calculated differently depending on the fund issuer or data provider.

Warning .. some issuers exclude all capital gains when calculating distribution yield (TTM), but other issuers or data providers may include capital gains in their yield calculation.

https://www.etftrends.com/monthly-income-channel/etf-yield-advisors-guide/ points out .. Many issuers use an alternate method to calculate TTM: multiply the most recent distribution by 12 and then divide by the NAV. It’s a faster method but can lead to inaccuracies and distortions, particularly if the most recent distribution is smaller or larger than the average.

Warning .. A distribution within the last 12M can be a non-recurring payout like a special dividend. Some distributions are irregular.

Warning .. The most recent NAV used to calculate distribution yield may not be representative of the average NAV in the last year.

— For VettaFi sites, the TTM calc is … https://www.etftrends.com/monthly-income-channel/etf-yield-advisors-guide/

Manage USD notes carried}SGP #park`convert`

To use money-changer, you must pick a date decisively, and subsequently refuse to give in to regret.

Every “3M parking in locker” leads to 1% lost interest .. i.e. opp cost. Also, you need a safe storage at home .. during those few months.

Default plan — deposit and pay 0.5% handling fee, a cost “recoverable” within 1.5 month, thanks to the current high-interest.

  • Citi 0.5% (min USD 10) .. discontinued.
  • .. CitiGold (250k) — 0.25% only.
  • Hsbc Premier 0.75% (min USD 10)
  • BOC 1%
  • DBS, OCBC .. even worse

https://www.sc.com/sg/save/current-accounts/usd-high-account/ (priority clients) .. 1.5% waived 🙂

— Advantages of physical (instead of electronic) USD cash

  • competitive FX rate at /ffP/. (Not so relevant when I have surplus SGD in the foreseeable future.)
  • conserve the 50k/Y limit by China

 

DCA^Buffett^mkt timing

DCA proponents are a vocal minority. They lump everyone else into one giant group, which should be named “the non-DCA approaches”, but they tend to call it “market timing”. I think non-DCA approaches can include

  • non-DCA index investing, usually with low DYOC
  • non-DCA growth investing .. largely ignoring DYOC
  • Buffett style stock picking and BnH, mostly for long-term appreciation
  • macro analysis and allocation

2021 prognosis@ %%stock-pick`trec #cf mufu

Let’s put on the white (or black) hat not the yellow hat or red hat. Let’s avoid “hope”.
— net capital invested .. “will be 10k at end of 2021”. Achieved.
— Number of names .. “will be 100 to 200”. Turned out to be 201 at 31 Dec 2021
Best way to count: Dec statement
— %bad_bets .. At an “average” time, in my rbh portfolio perhaps 40% of names (ETF included) would be in red, but 35% if considering dividend. Such a large difference exists because many of my non-performing stocks would have a tiny paper loss, easily compensated by dividend.

Quite likely 10% of the red or black names would have a %PnL below 1% [3]. These would be flippers ( flipping black/red ). Therefore I define deepRed as “%PnL worse than 1%”. Note, I don’t care about deepBlack. My batting average of “lucky picks” trec?  Dubious because

  1. 20% of the names can flip black/red over any period of time. This is similar to tracking your weight fluctuation on different scales, wearing different clothing … the measurement noise is way too high.
  2. div is ignored by Rbh

In conclusion, I will use a biased-yet-pragmatic yardstick “%bad_bets” := #deepRed_names / #names

[3] Quick assessment by mental calc? compare average cost vs current price, in the Rbh tabulation.

I forecast my %bad_bets would hit 25->30-40% (Achieved). So far, the typical %bad_bets hovers within 15~20%.

In Dec 2021 I told Aaron+Claris that I “always make money whenever I invest in stocks”. (My 3-min description was based on the blogpost on my eq returns.) I explained my eqMufu experience, revealing the key drawback of expRatio. Then I explained my stock picking track record. Most of my picks have be successes.

A “Success” means the stock didn’t drop “too badly”. It could be underwater now, but not hopelessly or permanently. It once had and will again have a chance to show a profit.

— DYOC trec .. “will be around 3->4-5% before tax over 2021”. Cost excludes withdraw-able cash. Achieved even though I have diversified to low-div stocks. If I use some arbitrary criteria to exclude the low-dividend stocks from my portfolio, then my “adjusted” DYOC would be 4->5-6%, before tax.

To manage DYOC, I can consider increasing position in existing high-yield stocks, while reducing (not wiping out) other positions.

My DYOC would be better than my peers, partly due to the prevalence of ETF passive investing. Any mufu salesman in a Singapore bank would ask me to compare my trec against a high-dividend mufu such as FSSA-DIVA. However, mufu often pays out part of its dividend from NAV when it receive less dividend than expected in a poor quarter. I explained in my blogpost on DPR.
— dividend income .. “will be 4% x 8k = $320/Y”, turned out to be $516 over 2021. (2020: $98)
— PnL trec (excluding div) relative [1] to SP500 .. would show a smaller difference (+/-), due to my focus on dividend. However, if there is a crash or long trough then I would benefit from my defensive portfolio, as I can receive dividends and keep my faith in the defensive, stable cash flows.

See also easy to make money; easy to lose
See also inDefenseOf MOETF + drawbacks #w1r4

Red-hat Warning : peer-comparison on PnL is counterproductive even harmful. It is as meaningless as (or worse than) comparison on brank, college prestige, size of home. Many people win that game (PnL or whatever) at a high cost like stress, distraction and family time.

[1] Absolute PnL prognosis will depend mostly on market return
— My tcost on babysitting … would remain “recreational”. Achieved.
My pre-trade tcost .. would increase from the Jan 2021 (honeymoon) level. I beat my expectation 👍.

[23]IBs[i.e.interactiveBrokers] #sigh of relief

There is a tough self-judge who dictates that I ought to do everything I can to “optimize U.S. stock trading”. IBs-SGP account is non-optimal due to dividend withholding etc

IBs-US account requires unexpired U.S. ID documents, but all of my U.S. ID documents are expired. When I realize this “infeasibility”, somehow I had a sigh of relief.

I am *confident* I can accept the current situation, without feeling deprived, unlucky, victimized, helpless,, Here’s the current situation:
* No IBs for the next X years
* stop liquidating Rbh positions
* increase S27
* consider other Sgp-approved brokers only if I have bandwidth. After that, move some positions from Rbh

beatIndex^ livelihoodBoost: choose your goals #R.xia

 


See also

As I continue to invest more money + time, and write more blogposts evaluating my MOETF vis-a-vis other investments, there’s a real growing concern like

Q1: is my time and money well-invested in MOETF?  It is quite productive compared to my other investments, but perhaps an ETF/eqMufu would achieve higher total return and lower tcost?
%%A: even if you hold a SP500 ETF, there’s always [2] a legitimate need for an alternative equity portfolio with lower volatility, lower risk of a “down year”, higher cash payout, higher reassurance,,, Therefore, it’s my mistake to pit MOETF against SP500, when it’s not designed to compete with SP500.
A: tcost is addressed below

There’s a widespread perception that “mindless (therefore easy) investing in the U.S. [1] large-cap index will outperform most hand-picked MOETF in most years“. Buffet has struggled against the SP500 index for decades. I believe many value investors achieve lower return than the US large-cap indices. (Note SP500 is all-large-cap and all-US.) See Buffett no longer beating SP500. I do have some ETFs and mutual funds (T.R.Price) to capture the index appreciation. If after X years (to be decided) I still believe that MOETF consistently underperforms SP500, then I would allocate more to an SP500 ETF.

One portfolio in MOETF would become a fund comparable to a cash-cow retirement account; another portfolio an absolute-return fund without a benchmark. As such, MOETF is designed to meet those “other” needs.

Jolt: Similarly, most SP500 ETF investors also have assets in retirement accounts (401k), bonds (or money-market funds), gold, Reits, rental properties, dividend stocks etc, so it’s unfair to look down on those assets or MOETF.

[1] How about mindless investing in non-U.S. indices? Much weaker?
[2] many investors put aside that need .. unwise

— OPP .. It’s crucial to be clear what exactly we want out of stock trading. Many valid priorities of other investors are not important to us. In fact, these OPPs (other people’s priorities) may get in our way.

  • when you take on those OPP, your life becomes more complicated, when it can be simpler like mine. You may have to babysit your positions. Your firewall is strained.
  • when you take on those OPP, they could displace some of your true priorities. Analog: carry-on luggage (i.e. limited holder of true priorities) vs checked luggage i.e. holder of lower priorities
  • when you take on those OPP, you may inadvertently take on more risks.

Matching SP500 return … is a bad OPP. Investing 80% of my assets, and minimizing idle cash (make every dollar work hard) … is an OPP

Q2: how important is total return (including current income) vs beating some index?

These questions arise more often when I discuss with fellow investors. An unwise investor may have an implicit goal “match other people’s returns” even though he doesn’t know their pain/risk profiles or even their actual return rate. I try to avoid that unwise goal. I often justify MOETF using phrases like “absolute return”, firewall (sleep well), recreational (learning), DYOC(current income),,,

div stocks: widely seen as low-growth #valInv #laughing described the recurring scenario .. When I show my 5% current income to friends, they probably walk away laughing …

— Question 2 is similar to FOMO^livelihood  — am happy with the current income, the low-stress (firewall), the relatively low but positive return, but not so happy when I compare with some “high flyers”. Why the hell do I bother with other people when I’m happy with MOETF?

MOETF generates a few times more current income than any SP500 ETF or cryptos, if I (arbitrarily) exclude the low-yield stocks that I bought for growth.

— rental yield .. is a parallel. So far I’m satisfied with my SEA rental properties esp. the rental yield, perhaps more than my Beijing property. If I were to compare myself with those who achieved 10x returns in some Chinese-hot locations then I might feel diminished.

However my Q1 above is different. Compared to those hot property markets, SP500 is widely perceived as less risky and tracking ETFs are much more accessible (low entry requirement, very passive,,,)

— Learning and fun.. relatively vague ROI, but as a ROTI it is growing more important. See learning: fund^stock-pick

  • If you don’t need learning, then SP500 ETF beats almost all ETFs or eqMufu.
  • If you want learning, then growth stocks and cryptos threaten my firewall (babysitting, buy-n-forget)

— le2 XR… a summary on a familiar question. Q3: given that MOETF can’t outperform a SP500 ETF, why bother to hand-pick to construct MOETF?

  • A(mentioned in earlier mail): foreign stocks .. missing from SP500.
  • A(mentioned in the call): recreation and learning (see above)
  • A(mentioned in the call): dividend payout, esp. during a downturn.
  • A(mentioned in earlier mail): selective cash-out
  • A(mentioned in earlier mail): selective buy .. esp. if I know a company well. This feature could help me outperform SP500
  • A: consider retirees. They don’t focus on “return” only, so they allocate heavily towards bonds, annuities, dividend stocks outside SP500. One retiree I know invests heavily into a rental property for rental income. MyOwnETF doesn’t aim to outperform SP500 but aims to provide other benefits such as access to cash flow.
SP500 return is hard to beat, so I will probably maintain 50% allocation to SP500. As I age, we will need to reduce SP500 allocation.

pseudo-DCA ] %%system: lack`discipline

See also my Dec 2021 mail to Aaron/Claris

My recreational system already uses DCA principle — “invest small amounts regularly throughout the year”.

Main benefit of my DCA — mistakes are minor and detectable.

— deviation from the standard DCA robot

  • in an overpriced market, I have fewer stocks to consider investing. I tend to notice the recent hype and stand aside
  • I tend to pick new names in each small purchase, rather than buying the same stock over and over.
  • DCA down the curve .. (the main deviation) See below

However, how do you tell “overpriced”?

— down the curve .. My system is supposed to reduce purchases during bull markets, building up a buffer, and increase purchases during decline, depleting the buffer. However, in reality, we often feel hesitant and try to wait for further declines.

Jolt: when we see an initial recovery, we don’t know if it is a temporary recovery, so we are usually hesitant

Jolt: when we see a zigzag decline then a recovery, we don’t know if the decline would continue, so we are hesitant

Jolt: when we see an up trend of 30% from the bottom, we often feel it’s too late to go in

— up the curve .. When SP500 rises after some decline, it could be still overpriced, or it could be bottoming out.. How do you tell? See overvalued@@ CDY,P/E,NGRY

[19] dividend as foundation4retirement #^bond

See also

5 REIT Dividends You Could Retire On Forever claims that REIT dividends can be “forever”. I doubt it.

Jack Zhang told me a story of a Taiwanese retiree who bought ConEdison in the 1960’s and now receiving annual dividends that are probably around 100% of principal (100% DYOC). He also shows me Yahoo finance has complete dividend history. You can see how stable a company’s dividends really are. Now I feel such stories are rare and require luck similar to buying the a tech super-stock, or “right property at the right time” — basically lottery picking.

— compare to bonds.. Stocks are riskier than bonds, but among all stocks, I feel utility stocks like T:US are the safer choice for retirees, comparable to high-yield bonds. Appreciation is low but appreciation is secondary compared to reliable dividend.

Compare to investment-grade bond’s coupons, dividend is unstable as foundation for retirement. If you need USD 4k/M, and social security provides $2k, then dividend could fluctuate. In a good year you need to squirrel away the surplus.

buy small,learn fast: adv@stocks+ETF #Zeng #w1r2

The trigger : a stock coach compared properties, gold, mutual fund,, and pointed out a unique advantage of stock as an asset class. I’m even luckier, due to Robinhood.

When buying small, the Impact of missing latest news is proportionally small.

— update

if you want to gradually develop a personal stock-picking “system”, then you need to make a large number of small but real decision, over different times. A few big trades won’t grow your confidence fast enough.

To become an experienced stock investor, you also need to make many informed decisions and learn from that experience.

Q: how much retrospective analysis needed?
A: not about how many hours but how much real traction you gain (not wheel-spinning). You should cut down the review when you notice diminishing return.

Quick learning is an advantage of stock vis-a-vis other investments.

— buy bigger .. When we have some confidence and experience then we can put in bigger trades up to $5k. Even at this level the impact of missing some news is not huge.

After you learn the art and grow in confidence, you may need to bet bigger, or ROTI remains low. But it’s not a harm in itself as explained below

Nevertheless, Low ROTI is no real problem for recreational investing.

— I always favor small trades below $1000, like $500. This way, we don’t need so much due diligence.
My learning comes after I hold the name in my portfolio and I get to monitor it in my portfolio, just as you monitor the stocks of you past employers, the stocks behind the brands you buy. A bitcoin researcher, an economist by profession, bought some coins just to motivate himself to monitor it.

This is a benefit of investing in individual stocks rather than ETF.

— downside of this “buy-small” advantage

  • Low entry barrier means too many small retail investors … herd instinct
  • low ROTI
  • hard to find bargains

— Fractional shares are a great training tool, though there are some limitations.
— Buy without fear if below $50.
— Compared to mutual funds, PE etc, I feel ETF/REIT/Stocks support faster, safer learning curve.
You get to climb the curve faster thanks to the cushioned training outfit.
— mutual funds learning by small trades, as compared to ETF

  • 🙁 annual fee
  • 🙁 no limit order
  • 🙁 you can’t learn by buying one share as in stocks

Both mufu and ETF offer

  1. 🙂 less distraction at work
  2. 🙂 pre-clearance exemption

— email to fellow investor Zeng
Q1: Is there anything harmful in buying very small quantities of a stock?
I don’t know any. I believe lower profit is not a harm in itself. Likewise, keeping money in time deposits is no harm.).

Q2: Is there anything harmful in buying “too many” stocks?
I don’t see any.

Q3: is it ok to buy-n-forget? Many people say “you need to monitor your portfolio once a while and have a plan when to sell”.

  • I think it’s OK. Buffett once said something like ” Our Favorite Holding Period Is Forever“, so I think it’s entirely possible to make a decent profit with buy-n-forget.
  • If I must babysit my positions, it would affect my sleep, my work, my mental energy for workouts, and parenting… all of them bigger than stocks. As busy fathers, we all understand that our total mental energy per day is a limited resource. I don’t think it’s worthwhile to spend my precious mental energy on babysitting my positions.

Q4: is it wiser, healthier to focus on a smaller number of (say 10) stocks or 100+ stocks? You gave a valid argument that since I can only allocate up to 10 minutes, and invest small amounts on each stock, I won’t make big gains.

  • my stock picking is recreational, perhaps with $15-20k risk capital. Am not aiming for big gains[3]. For each stock XYZ, I’m OK with XYZ if over 10 years XYZ temporarily rises above my initial purchase price. “Temporary” so as to give me a chance to exit. Even if I exit with 2.2% return over 3 years, I’m fine.
  • I have learned from experience that more time spent on analysis doesn’t lead to better trades. Sometimes I spend only 3 minutes on an unfamiliar stock, before buying. No major mistake so far. Some of the regrettable stocks were bought after longer due diligence.

[3] If you want big gains, just buy SP500. I do that too, but doing that is too boring and not recreational. (If some investors want to beat SP500, I wish them good luck.)

For my investment to remain recreational, it must not create undue stress. Therefore, diversification helps. Meaningful diversification is not easy, and my 100+ stocks represent a wide spectrum, with superficial diversification. Concentrating on 10 stocks would be even less diversified and more stressful.

Q5: Just what have I learned from so many stock-picking decisions? Here’s a random list of answers, half-ranked by unique/specific value

  • I am learning how to read news, and I learned how much to trust analyst ratings. Now I know there is a validity period, a target price, and a rating in each analysis. I have very limited time and must zero in on the key points.
  • I learned about various zero-commission brokers. Robinhood is a poster boy among them. There are many limitations to the platform. I learned many of those limitations.
  • I learned a lot about how to assess dividend history and dividend safety. I also learned about share buy-backs.
  • I am learning how to group my 100+ stock positions into categories… crucial for the purpose of benchmarking
  • I learned about (sector) concentration risk within my portfolio.
  • I learned about risks in REIT, utility/telecom, pharma, cars, oil majors, energy mid-streams, tourism/airline sector, banking/insurance, mining .. among other sectors.
  • I learned a bit about Russia, India, Canada, Japan, China… Many of these stocks trade OTC .. low liquidity
  • I learned some of the limitations of country-specific ETF or mutual fund. I pick my own stocks for exposure to specific geographies.
  • I learned about withholding tax implications for Canadian (+other) stocks
  • I learned that more time spent on analysis doesn’t lead to better trades, as explained earlier
  • I learned about the risks of fractional shares vs big-quantum stocks (above $200/share), and also market- vs limit-orders
  • I learned about emotions, impulsive trading, over-buying, obsessive trading, distractions from work…
  • [v] I read about legendary investors’ styles including Buffett. They make mistakes too and they seldom can beat SP500.
  • [v] I learned about why the U.S. index beat all regional market indices hands down.
  • I am learning about blue chips vs small caps. Most people seem to favor large caps if they only buy a few names.
  • I learned a bit about leveraged REITs. I think you need to invest in many REITs before you start seeing the differences in leverage.

[v=Note some of the things above can be learned without buying 100+ stocks (thought more trades would speed up learning). I have marked these items with v]

overvalued@@: CDY,P/E,NGRY as acid tests

After some asset (condo or a stock or a bccy) has experienced an exponential growth, someone would wonder how soon it would slow down. The math is compelling. If its valuation doubles every 3Y, then over 30Y the value of a unit would baloon to 1000 times.

Payout ratios are a good test “Is it overvalued now?” Note bccy and some tech stocks have zero payout and easily become overpriced without anyone noticing.

— P/E is more widely used. If a business generates exponential profit to maintain its P/E, then it’s not overpriced.
— CDY .. more reliable than P/E as the payout is physically paid out. The dividend safety is under scrutiny.
— realized net rental yield .. (for rEstate) is similar to CDY