entry/exit: stick to proven rule@@

I often hear authors advocate discipline — “Set your own rules and follow them consistently.” However … Q: why do we need to monitor the market rather than program a computer to do so?

More importantly… Q: how do I know when to turn on manual override and modify my rule?

I think in reality, what we can realistically do is “Follow personal rules 95% of the time” What percentage of retail investors have the discipline to achieve that? One in 10? Among this subset of (millions of) investors, their numeric rules are all different and therefore create millions of “free agents” that power the free market.

Buffett’s IBM “mistake” #hold to BrE

99% of online discussions describe IBM as  Buffett’s misstep, but https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-ibm-very-profitable-171245620.html estimates that “As I noted in a previous article, this investment wasn’t a complete disaster. I put the estimated holding period return at 5% overall, including dividends.”

If you don’t read the fine prints, you would walk away with the wrong impression… Common System 1 weakness in news-based learning.

I think Buffett has in his career made many questionable buys, where he has to hold decades to breakeven, provided the asset is fundamentally productive asset, without erosive annual fees. I feel he can hold forever until breakeven of the asset becomes worthless like bankrupt. If he can, then I think he would.

safe div stock: comparable to corp bonds

Background: A few friends are interested in corporate bonds, but am not keen.

I now feel 4% DYOC stocks beat 6% high-yield bonds. Granted the bonds guarantee the payment rate but look at credit quality, reliability and appreciation.

  • if a bond has 6% coupon rate, then credit risk (dependable income) is questionable
  • if a bond is relatively safe with, eg 4% coupon rate, then I would say a 3% DYOC stock would be possibly comparable quality.

In all cases, the stock has chance of appreciation/depreciation.

A 4% CDY aristocrat beats most of the corporate bonds out there.

(de)stressor in eq-investing #w1r4

I guess for most equity investors, stress [like all-at-once stressor moments, distraction, sleep in peace,,,] is like an “occupational hazard”, a fact of life.

I practice mainly two forms of eq-investing AA) SP500_ETF, BB) recreational MOETF. All other forms of eq-investing are unfamiliar to me, and by default too risky in terms of “wildfire getting out of control”  .. such as those 3episodes@ non-recreational trading. It’s worthwhile reviewing stressful investing experiences.

Note the key benefits of AA and BB are unavailable in “my” other asset classes like FXO, leveraged FX, gold, bond mufu, Singapore ETF

== AA) mindless investing .. SP500_ETF (not other indices, not mufu) is one low-stress, buy-n-forget form of investing. What about $200k in it? Should be fine. Buy-n-forget SP500_ETF relies on the index committee as stock pickers. Other ETFs, like sector ETF or other countries’ ETF are usually less successful than SP500_ETF. (Note buy-n-forget a single stock doesn’t involve exit-timing. Can rarely beat SP500_ETF.)

How about “balanced” mufu? It is supposed to buy “stability” at the cost of return but in my experience it doesn’t reduce stress cf SP500_ETF. Actually I always maintain my own bond ptf + speculative ptf + …. I can rebalance them, something I can’t do with a balanced mutu. Also the expRatio is not worthwhile.

== BB) recreational MOETF .. a classic positive stress comparable to other analytical and active-learning pastimes, in tech, magazine-xx, healthy food preparation,,
However, as I commit more funds into MOETF, this recreation can get out of control. Therefore it requires a robust firewall.

The positive stress is felt in a few specific stressor contexts listed in Q9.

  • Heavy allocation to growth ptf .. leads to net_negative effect on my overall stress profile, net_negative after considering firewall, buffer build-up.
  • Overwhelming allocation to dividend stocks .. has a 50/50 chance to net positive or net_negative stress, depending on the context

— destressor: firewall .. is designed for 1) stress protection, 2) portfolio protection.
Q: what frequency of ptf review is the max before it would lead to net_negative stress? Give a single number please
A: [3->6] a quarter
— destressor: steady DYOC .. (from my income portfolio) supposed to /defray/ a lot of annual expenses, reducing cash flow stress, but I have low cashflow stress in the first place.

Substantial DYOC should reduce the impact of a down turn, to be verified ..

— destressor: price buffer build-up has limited efficacy in stress reduction.
— destressor: diversification … meaningful diversification is not easy. Any evidence of that within a stock portfolio? I have not seen any.
=====
— Q: your notion of a wise investor? Beware not all “experienced” investors are successful in stress-management.

  • stress reduction .. keep the growth portfolio small (relative to…). This is my idea of a wise investor.
  • stress prevention
  • stress protection .. is hard to achieve, even for experienced investors
  • portfolio protection … defensive ptf? I don’t think this is a standard strategy among wise investors. Many wise investors don’t mind high volatility in a small ptf.
  • SP500_ETF .. (rather than mufu) is probably popular among those “wise” investors.

— Q9: (personal experience ) when I came under _certain_ types of stressors (but NOT other stressors), I would increase my recreational MOETF hour-allocation and dollar amount allocation. A paradox!

There are too many types of stressors even in a single person’s life. Let’s first focus on those stressors “friendly to” MOETF:

  • the stressor of plateauing growth: 江河日下,自强不息, midlife crisis #timetable@self-growth? Yes. MOETF represents a new frontier of self-growth[learning]. MOETF increases my sense of relative superiority. Recreational MOETF generates positive stress.
  • OC-effective? T_semiKai3mo2? FOLB? presumably effective : stress-reduction by recreational MOETF
  • BMI stagnation? workout frequency?
  • boy’s academic motivation?
  • spouse quarrels? probably a positive diversion

SGX stocks with 10Y-rising dividend

https://www.drwealth.com/high-dividend-stocks-singapore shows 18 stocks/Reits.

( Inferior to U.S. stocks. )

  • capitaLand
  • DBS/OC/UOB

— Q: what stocks would I buy on SGX?

  1. Avoid Unfamiliar names because lot size requires uncomfortable commitment , threatening my firewall. I think there are dozens of familiar names.
  2. I will Exclude all the stocks available on Rbn, because Rbh is much better than SGX in terms of commission, lot size etc. Currency advantage of SGX is insufficient.
  3. Min amount must be below $100

growth ptf +income ptf +.. #w1r3

Many investors maintain multiple portfolios (for whatever reasons). I wish to keep separate portfolios so that only my growth portfolio is benchmarked against SP500. It’s unfair to benchmark the other portfolios that way.

  • income + stability ptf .. Note income stocks without stability is useless
  • .. aka defensive ptf .. for down turns.
  • international ptf .. probably not worthwhile
  • blue-chip growth ptf .. including TRBCX + a few ETFs. Benchmarked to sp500 [1]
  • speculative ptf .. mostly hot assets including ARK funds. I do (rather than “did”)  hand-pick a few speculative stocks but not exactly to beat SP500.
    • mrna
    • tourism stocks

Some stock picks would be homeless [i.e. hard to classify].

Some stock picks would be multi-homed, like both defensive and high-yield. Don’t bother. Instead, it’s more important to have sufficient allocation to meet the various needs [for income, for protection]

Q: how do I go about creating a “muti-portfolio view” from the combined portfolio?
A: No easy way. So this discussion is kinda academic

— [1] to beat SP500 you have no choice but trade hot stocks. You really need market timing. It requires more analysis, more babysitting (for exit timing). I don’t want to play that game, so I use ETFs as the bulk of my growth ptf.

— DYOC .. My income prt should have dyoc > 5%. Aggregate dyoc doesn’t make sense.

The growth prt would dilute aggregate dyoc.

 

##problems@judging by return alone

See also