FTSE100 showing div stocks=slow

FTSE100 offers many important observations/insights, but in this blogpost main focus is dividend stock picking.

https://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/how-different-are-the-s-and-p-500-and-ftse-100 says

the FTSE 100 includes a lot of banks, oil companies and miners. These companies tend to be quite cyclical meaning they’re closely linked to the economic health of the country and tend to follow the ups and downs of the economy. They generally don’t have a lot of room for explosive growth. …  The S&P 500 trades on a price to earnings ratio of 22.2, which is much higher than the FTSE 100 – currently trading on a PE of 14.4. Additionally, the historic dividend yield on the S&P 500 is 1.8%, compared to 4.8% for the FTSE 100.

— DRIP
Note most comparisons of FTSE100 vs SP500 graphs ignore dividend. It is hard to verify but some authors say that DRIP would dramatically change the picture.

— hot tech stocks [hot money, low CDY] has a huge presence in SP500
I think four articles comparing FTSE100^SP500 (or DJIA) all singled out this as the biggest of many reasons for the superior 10Y performance of SP500.

Coincidentally, Vance of DBS said the Singapore STI suffers the same weakness. “Sunset industries”.

— survivorship bias and natural selection ..
If we compare two ETFs tracking FTSE100 vs any tech-heavy index, we need to ask which index is adjusted more often. Tech-heavy, frequently adjusted indices tend to benefit from survivorship bias and natural selection. If no adjustment allowed, then the fatality rate (of tech stocks) becomes more apparent.

I guess (without evidence) that a tech-heavy index ETF would buy low sell high more often, due to index adjustments. The passive ETF manager would follow the index, to swap out laggards and swap in rising stars.

This blogpost is about indices, but here is a digression. ARKK and TRBCX are more tech-heavy than SP500, and more actively managed. I don’t have the bandwidth or skill.

ETF invest`=far simpler than stock-pick`#Dahlan

k_ETF_assetClass

I told my young colleague Dahlan that “ETF investing is much simpler than stock trading”.

  • no analyst research or rating
  • no need to identify defensive stocks or stable cash cows
  • no worry about buying at the peak
  • no worry about buying in a volatile time
  • no dividend safety concern
  • no dividend trec to check
  • no special dividend
  • no stock splits or buyback
  • no dividend cut surprises … as ETF dividend is always fluctuating.
  • no surprise about dividend processing
  • no surprise about tax withholding in Canada dividend
  • no surprise about low liquidity in pink sheets
  • no pre-clearance required for most ETFs

— learning as a recreation .. is a major advantage of MOETF.  Simpler implies less learning.
We learn and grow wiser mostly from mistakes and losses.

What if your stock pick doesn’t really lose money but trails the index and most index-tracing ETFs? I guess you too learn something.

You also learn something if your pick beats the index.

I feel the more names you pick, the faster you learn. You also learn by selling, but I practice buy-n-forget

My comment to Dahlan has a hidden meaning “Similar to a bigger board game, Stock picking is more fun more anti-aging, more recreational.”

divChamp^divKing ^(Euro) divAristocrat

Good idea to check periodically for new names to buy.

Note divChamp and divKing include smaller stocks, possibly past thepeak. Given the dividend trec, they are not so unproven.

— divChamp .. https://dividendvaluebuilder.com/dividend-champions-list/ .. 140 stocks

— divKing .. mentioned in https://tanbinvest.dreamhosters.com/18168/mo-8-cdy-blue-chip/


— The European aristocrats have a different criteria
https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/602578/european-dividend-aristocrats-international-stocks

— SP500 aristocrats
https://www.buyupside.com/dividendaristocrats/dividendaristocratsyieldssorted.php is ranking by 2013 CDY

https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/types-of-stocks/dividend-stocks/dividend-aristocrats/ is ranking by years. Also explains the criteria.

https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/dividend-stocks/602237/65-best-dividend-stocks-you-can-count-on-in-2021 describes each of the 65 stocks

The Dividend Aristocrats list is updated at several frequencies by S&P Dow Jones Indices:

 

OTC: foreign blue-chips ++

One motivation for a OTC listing — A foreign company does not want to meet the filing and listing requirements of the major U.S. exchanges when they already meet the requirements in their home country. Hiring a team of experts in U.S. security law and filing requirements is expensive; especially considering the companies already have a similar team to handle these requirements in their home country. Household names like Nestle, Nintendo, and Volkswagen are three examples of quality companies that list on the OTC.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/otc-markets-group-inc.asp explains that AA) OTCQX is the top tier “system” that includes many foreign blue-chips. CC) OTC-Pink is the 3rd and lowest tier.

Ranked by listing criteria and quality of stocks:

  1. Nyse, Nsdq
  2. Amex
  3. AA) OTCQX
  4. BB) OTCQB
  5. CC) OTC-Pink

— How does a company get on the OTCBB
(Note the Finra OTCBB is basically replaced by BB) OTCQB , both denoted BB, the 2nd-tier in OTC-Markets. However, market data is still reported as OTCBB stocks.)
An issuer may not submit an application directly to be quoted on the OTCBB. A market maker must sponsor the security and demonstrate compliance with SEC Rule 15c2-11 before it can initiate a quote in a specific security on the OTCBB.

Before a company can post a quote for its OTC security, it must first recruit a market maker to sponsor the issue. Only market makers are allowed to apply to have a quote listed on the board, and only one market maker is needed per security issued. Since the securities are technically “not listed” on the OTCBB, the issuing company does not have to pay any fees to have its shares quoted. Market makers, however, must pay a fee of six dollars per security per month for all of the securities that they quote on the board.

Some delisted stocks move from NYSE/Nasdaq/Amex to OTCBB or OTC-pink.

— risks, drawbacks
OTC stocks lack liquidity and are often thinly traded. The bid-ask spread is wide, and investors need to be patient and cautious when putting in any buy or sell order.

When I need to sell someday, the depth of market could lead to longer wait, and inferior price.

When I need to buy, I have noticed that my buy@99 was skipped when a trade executed at $98 ! This happened to ACGBY, OGZPY etc

Buffett no longer beating (only)SP500

Note SP500 is all-large-cap and all-US.

Buffett is no longer beating the SP500 in annual returns.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/12/22/5-reasons-warren-buffett-didnt-beat-the-market-ove.aspx is one of the better explanations.

In https://kernelwealth.co.nz/buffett-vs-sp-500/ , When asked whether Berkshire or the S&P 500 would be a better investment for a long-term investor, he did not hesitate to answer that “I think the financial result would be very close to the same”. Note he said “financial”, and only U.S. index can match Buffett’s financial results.

I wonder why Buffett (and many others) still stick to value investing “systems”? A big , complex question, but I don’t mind offering my simple, naive answers.

  • I believe value-investing is safer, less volatile, lower beta, higher Sharpe ratio.
  • tCost is higher, but I think the investor has better peace of mind than a SP500 tracking ETF investor.

stock-pick`=always highRisk/highReturn@@

I think with the exception of U.S. retirees the stereotypical retail investors would consider stock-picking only for growth, not passive income. To them, a stock is either high return or nothing.

They ask me “If not attracted by quick profit or windfall profit, then why stock-picking? Why not some other assets?” They hear about dividend investors’ stories, and value-investing stories, but most of them decide to focus on high growth stocks.

Kun.H said “dividend is a secondary attraction/motivation.” The main reason to consider any stock is invariably capital appreciation, hopefully a windfall. Kun is more intellectual and more analytical than other retail investors. His comments are articulate. I think his views represent many intelligent, well-read investor.

Tianjue said many investors have a reasonable, human desire beyond stable, dependable dividend. I guess it’s a higher desire for … windfall profit! I guess it’s similar to higher desires like lottery, bigger home, top college,,,,, These higher desires drive up hot asset valuation to unreasonable levels.

Because these desires are based mostly on emotion, they can become irrational. Compare to Value investing.

Consider investing $500 into 25 growth stocks. To support firewall and buy-n-forget, I would need to limit each position to below $20. Beware of the risk of temptation.

infatuated_investors: rise/fall {buy

With recreational stock investing, impulsive trading is usually the precise phrase. [1] Sometimes, I feel “infatuation” describes a different perspective.

I have a mild (not extreme) but uncontrolled tendency to become infatuated with some products

  • eg blue-chip stocks with BUY recommendation .. If it’s a billion-dollar brand name, with a trec, I tend to brush aside the negative analysis.
  • xp (earliest): during my Tritech industrial attachment, I fell in love with some mutual funds and biked all the way to west coast to buy some mutual funds
  • xp: Between Year 3 and Year 4 in NUS, commodity trading cost me $11k due to infatuation
  • xp Allianz high yield fund — once took up SGD 100k of my fund. I didn’t make a loss but the return was much lower than initially perceived
  • xp Saxo FX option trading — I took on too many positions
  • xp (biggest) Cambodia GRR rental properties.

It’s easy to get carried away and underestimate the risks, the long wait, the severe liquidity limitation.

— 4 nights after pre-clear.. Most of my trading tend to happen on the first night … more stressful and less efficient than spread-out. Is it rational or should I change?

  • factor: better price on first night .. in about half the cases, first night has better (some would say no-worse) price than subsequent nights. See the “Rise” scenario.
  • factor: I usually set my own quota. In many cases first night I have used up most of it. This habit can be adjusted.
  • .. sugg: set a smaller quota in the beginning.

— Scenario: I spend many minutes selecting stocks, then due diligence on each including a desirable incremental amount, then pre-clear, then set aside nightly hours, but in the end only invest $10 to $20 over 4 nights 🙁

I feel the most common reason is the “rise” scenario.
Another common reason is implementing the desired increment, esp. when I had a pre-existing position, and I use “too many” fractionals.. hard to keep track of the running total.

— Scenario: I often find a stock with positive rating + CDY + stable div history. The more pre-trade effort invested, the more pressure I feel not to waste the effort. I end up tweaking my order and trying to get a fill.

Therefore, the Kun.H style of deep analysis is dangerous for me, esp. when I want to buy dozens of names within a month.

I tend to enter a limit price somewhere low, and wait for hours to get a fill 🙁 My new Suggestion .. fractional buy to release the tension. Also reduces the tcost of manual handling (different from babysitting an existing position)

— Scenario: After buying, the stock rises 🙂 ……. I had sometimes given in to the urge to top-up at the now higher price, partly due to the pre-trade tcost (a sunk cost).  This is an example of infactuation, but more infatuation than impulsive. See [1] above. In hindsight, I think it’s usually better to stand aside. Quite likely the price would fall, and buying that same quantity would be better at the lower price.

Jolt: stand-aside habit interferes with my plan to increase U.S. eq allocation.

Realistic example: I had set out to invest “up to $100 or 2 shares” but have bought only $1 before price went up. The initial tiny purchase tends to but should not dictate what I can/can’t do now. If you feel justified to top-up, then buy fractional please.

— Scenario: After buying, the stock falls 🙁 ……. Paradoxically, i often rub my hands in glee, because “I can have more fun buying!” Still, it’s prudent to use fractional buys to release the emotional build-up.

ROTI — tend to become an issue. Beware!

steps@buy`@Rbh #2graphs

 


[? = questionable, less reliable metric ]

These instructions/reminders need to be explicit, otherwise in a hurry I will miss the “obvious” hidden meanings.

  • pre-clearance quantity not to be exceeded
  • .. ! .. keep distraction in-check
  • —- due diligence before pre-clear
  • check my existing position .. in profit or at loss? If apparently at loss, then remember Robinhood PnL ignores dividend incomes.
  • check analysts .. (either CNN or tipranks) to avoid buying high.
  • check dividend yield … double-check that dividend has not dried up !
  • .. for a long-term div star, verify on macrotrends
  • check long-term graphs on macrotrends or rbh
  • optionally check 3-month price trend
  • (I need 2 browser tabs beside the tanbinvest and rbh tabs. Consider using multiple laptops.)

— total due diligence tcost before + after preclearance should minimize to 3 minutes if dollar amount < $20

Penny stocks deserve less due diligence, provided you buy one share only. But nowadays I tend to buy more, since the 3D window is too short.

fractional buys deserve less due diligence due to smaller dollar amount

Familiar names (not necessarily blue chips) require less due diligence and could incur lower tcost

 

silverlake stock #case study

This blogpost is a major re-calibration in my perception of reality. I thought Silverlake was an exceptionally strong stock, but it has declined in valuation, and faced competition from disruptive fintech — https://fifthperson.com/2018-silverlake-axis-agm/

Silverlake has a cost advantage operating out of Malaysia.

Silverlake has very strong client base — OC/UOB/CIMB/Maybank .. https://www.kgieworld.sg/securities/resources/ck/files/sg-report/Silverlake%20Axis%20(SILV%20SP)_Initiation%20OUTPERFORM_KGI%20Singapore%2020200709.pdf

— SGD 770M small-cap!   I thought it would be bigger than shopee and similar size to the big 3 banks.

— moat .. A core banking system is very expensive and complex software will cost hundreds of million to billions of dollars to replace.

— Jolt: I think the strengths [moat, dominance,,] are already baked into the current valuation and market cap

There are other tech stocks with a dominance and moat, but they all face the challenge of technology churn. One of my books on value investing pointed out this difference — In contrast, non-tech stocks can be cash cows over decades.

  • BEA weblogic
  • SUN
  • Oracle
  • Cisco
  • IBM