Category: t_bccy

t_bccy = blockchain ccy
t_crypto = …?

bccy: cool, hip, trendy

Posted on by tiger40490

“Enthusiasm for crypto from Hollywood celebrities and top athletes reached a fever pitch in 2021. On social media, during interviews and even in music videos, they portrayed virtual currency as a world with its own hip culture and philosophy – one that was more inclusive than traditional finance and that involved the chance to make loads of money…. Unlike clothes or snacks or many other products hawked by celebrities, the crypto market is volatile and rife with scams.”

A University of Chicago research has found that younger, lower-income investors tend to be overly optimistic about crypto’s trajectory.

[22]172>AMZN 0.0% #^BTC^GM #add$30..60

Posted on by tiger40490

— asset comparison

AMZN^BTC .. I feel even without dividend, AMZN is better than BTC. AMZN is a productive asset, with a proven business model and value proposition.

AMZN^GM .. both zero dividend, but GM has very low P/E, and Amazon has growth potential

lure@bccy, ##saferAssets

Posted on by tiger40490

Fact: I’m spending more time reading/blogg about bccy. Years ago, I diddn’t bother, then I blocked out the “radiation” of news story from friends and mass media.

I feel bccy trading is dangerous, comparable to gambling, addictive gaming, and speed driving. However, it’s increasingly difficult to stand back and stay detached.

I tell myself no to try even a small amount. The small amount could increase my confidence. The experience could easily lead to additional, bigger investments, but (most parts of ) the bccy /ecosystem/ is fundamentally flawed in many ways. Given my conviction about the flaws, I will not want to open the pandora’s box.

— Compare: Speed driving gave me a false sense of confidence. I learned from experience that it felt “not so scary” to drive at those speeds, but my experience was very limited and probably misleading.
— Compare: HY/PE… The earlier “successes” give investors confidence, and many of these investors would increase their commitment, at their peril
— Compare: Cambodia rEstate .. earlier “successes” increased my confidence, which led to dangerously high concentration in Phnom Penh. This thought has prompted me to compile a ranking of my assets by safety/resilience against swan events:

  1. cpf, SGD and USD cash
  2. hdb home
  3. Beijing house
  4. BGC, despite the weak currency
  5. U.S. stocks including 401k
  6. thePeak

##hot^beloved asset classes 喜新厌旧 #w1r2

Posted on by tiger40490

Scenario: for years you have invested in some beloved _good_[1] asset classes. Now you hear some friends getting better Returns. Initially you didn’t get affected, but the more you dwell on those return numbers, the less satisfied you feel about your beloved old friends.

  • Analog 2: reliable beloved old bike vs a newer, fancier vehicles.
  • Analog 3: a venerable alma mater with a focus on quality and graduate employment vs a rising-star college with a growing reputation, like Nanjing, or NTU
  • .. Well, in the (competitive) landscape of tertiary education, reputation is built over decades.
  • Analog 1: Applied to sexual relationships, we would say 喜新厌旧. The greying, 任劳任怨, trustworthy, dependable, predictable spouse is THE long-term partner. Note some of the adjectives apply to asset classes too.

If this tendency becomes a problem, then it is good to keep a cool head 冷静 [critical thinking] about the asset classes. Whatever high return is usually unsustainable and become inferior to our beloved old friends over the long horizon. The high return is sometimes less legitimate and provides a breeding ground for gambling.

[1] Good generally means reliable [legitimate], and suitable for your financial needs. What becomes beloved depends on your nationality [availability], your personal experience and risk appetite. It can be bonds, Reit, local rEstate. My own top 5 (unranked) would include

  • cpf-SA
  • integrated shield plans + MyCarePlus .. high leverage
  • U.S. stocks
  • HDB + SEAsia rental rEstate
  • USD and SGD cash
  • — some also-rans:
  • bond mufu .. acceptable for parking
  • eq mufu .. good for ex-US
  • China rEstate .. poor NRY
  • gold, U.S. rEstate .. not bought yet

— eg of hot /enhanced/ returns:
Some use high leverage. Some follow Reddit and invest in non-blue chip tech stocks like electric vehicles or blockchain tech.

I guess those assets are less secure than buying real assets on margin, such as gold, oil or rEstate.

I don’t use margin or leverage at all.

In the bccy domain, getting_in_early (FOMO being another side of the coin) is a key reason for some of the enhanced returns. But the risk of pump-n-dump is very real.

##key players legitimizing bccy #banks

Posted on by tiger40490

See also

三人成虎 .. if the 三人 include credible, reputable people, then the story becomes less suspicious. Here are some players who could help legitimize a cryptocurrency, even if they only hold a tiny bit to gain exposure, while holding 100,000 times more in hard currencies like gold.

  • player: central banks
  • player: financial exchange listing bccy ETFs
  • player: professors or PhDs
  • player: professional investors, businessmen including prestigious/iconic companies
  • player: celebrities
  • player: major newspaper/magazine/television networks showing positive articles. Note such articles, often with _appearance_ of balanced reporting, is more trust-worthy than plain endorsements.

— player: commercial banks .. may have to hold bccy (or “support” bccy) simply because the banks want to facilitate bccy transaction of their clients. Comparable to trade financing.

Consider POSB/DBS/OCBC (or another conservative bank). I guess they don’t take any position in any bccy. To support a bccy client, they may build systems to support bccy transactions. They may even buy a bit of bccy as hedge. At the same time, they may be suspicious of the bccy.

radical simplicity: recreational MOETF #Ewen.Chia

Posted on by tiger40490

Context: At end of the Affiliate Marketing Essentials course, after listening to Ewen Chia’s 20-minute elegant presentation I was struck by its radical simplicity. I realized there’s a similar radical simplicity in my recreational MOETF investing. I stumbled on this system after decades of investing in FSM.

Similar to Ewen Chia — we strip away lots of mainstream complexities
Similar to Ewen Chia — the system works, for whatever reasons.

This blogpost is about MOETF. So (now in Oct 2021) I will summarize the key features into a phrasebook, half-ranked by importance

[r=radical simplicity]
[v=vague but important guideline]

  • [v] steadfast focus on firewall
  • .. stay away from volatile hot assets like bccy
  • [v] steadfast focus on recreational [joy, learning]
  • [r] buy-n-forget .. vs babysitting
  • [r] .. Don’t care about exit timing. 3Y holding plan, and my definition of liquidity
  • focus first on DYOC .. vs NAV growth, which is harder to assess.
  • [r] .. refuse to benchmark against SP500
  • [r] incremental buy with fractional orders
  • [r] 3m due diligence .. buy without fear. No steep learning curve
  • 200-stock diversified MOETF .. vs ETF

why some big BTC holders never cut loss #BnH

Posted on by tiger40490

Here’s my biased hypothesis, based on zero validated data.

The buy-n-hold club — Some x percent of the rich individuals would each allocate some y percent of their risk capital to BTC. Even when they face a 90% paper loss, these club of investors don’t mind holding, and don’t mind 100% paper loss.

This represents a formidable risk appetite. If a sizeable portion of the BTC holders have this risk appetite, then BTC will show an unexpected resistance even in the worst crypto winter.

CBDC=sovereign bccy

Posted on by tiger40490

“Central bank digital currency” is a standard acronym. Chinese digital yuan is an example.

  • More than “pegged” it’s identical to the fiat currency, issued by the same entity as the fiat currency
  • centralized .. CBDC is centrally controlled/governed by one organization, while bccy is usually decentralized. The control is on the software release.
  • not anonymous .. Unlike anonymous transactions as on public blockchains, transactions are tracked
  • speeds up cross-border payments including remittance. No middleman except the issuing central bank.
  • For a particular consumer wallet, a CBDC balance is mostly stored on a smartphone, but can reside on a card (no connectivity required)
  • can be used without internet, but I think it’s tricky to prevent overspending
  • can be used without a bank account… I think the wallet is identified by the mobile number. I think mobile numbers are registered under a national ID. Note all such IDs are at the national level
  • legal tender .. unlike most bccy, a CBDC is legal tender, fully controlled by a central bank
  • blockchain .. CBDC can use blockchain in a limited way. It may use its own private blockchain + distributed ledger. I feel such a blockchain is 10% similar to the BTC blockchain, and 90% similar to a traditional database.

Why ibanks “support” bccy

Posted on by tiger40490

I-bank’s advertised business model is client facilitation. I-banks may hold an inventory of popular bccy, and may also accept service fee payment in bccy. In such a scenario, the ibank would trade bccy for its own position, even though they claim to trade bccy only for hedging.

In other words, ibanks are dealers rather than pure-play brokers of bccy.

Prop trading is a secret business model of i-banks, and may trade bccy actively.