Category: invest_gtmp

[15] convictions, informally defined

Posted on by tiger40490

When everyone is greedy, be fearful; when everyone is fearful be greedy.

If something is a conviction I am willing to invest at least 5k in it.

Best example — BGC uptown property.
Example — the Allianz HY fund.
Example — Jill’s property offers. I invested 10k x 3

In many of the above examples, I often prefer smaller lots because I don’t have deep conviction. In reality, these investments had minimum commitment, so I was forced to commit large sums, Uncomfortable.

Side note — Some other big gambles I made:
* going to US
* sending my wife and baby boy back to Singapore
* quitting my full time IT job to go solo

Here are my current convictions:

  • USDSGD to rise. Should go long 10k – 20k, but could easily lose sleep.

Looks like I have no conviction about equity investment.

Brazil? Dare not invest more than 2k
Turkey? Dare not invest more than 2k
Ph?
Taiwan?
healthcare?
energy?

stay fully invested@@ .. if crash@@

Posted on by tiger40490

If one of bonds/eq always outperforms bank account, then yes i should invest most of my savings. However, this is a big IF.

Should I invest 80% of my USD, leaving just enough (20k) for Oanda trading and conversion?

(SGD? need to leave enough in bank accounts.)

In a crash, I think bonds (HY? less confident) might perform reasonably well. Gold (not gold mining stocks) is another asset class that has a chance to stay resilient.

invest 10k@@ … in which eq market@@

Posted on by tiger40490

Q: if I were asked to invest 10k in one sector, then where?

#1) US market has strong long term trend. Wait for the right moment, but that moment may be the depth of recession. I may not have the conviction. Still US is by far the most likely target of a $10k investment. There are many choices on FSM.

China? not 10k. Perhaps 2->3-5k

Healthcare?
Tech?
Property?
Emerging markets? Nah…I don’t really understand any of them well.

increase position and holding period

Posted on by tiger40490

I feel many (but not all) successful investors are different from me in these 2 ways. I feel in order to grow, i may need to develop these capabilities, even though I may not use them.

Capability: holding longer
Capability: confidence to invest large amounts

Let’s set some realistic targets:
For S$100 to $300 positions, try to hold beyond 10% return
For U$1k+ positions, try to hold 10%

sticky:higher allocation to US eq@@

Posted on by tiger40490

within eq,

40->50-70% US. I have a better feel about US long term trend better than any other market. Even other big, mature markets (Europe, Jap) i don’t know much. Should exclude the GS 401k since I don’t know the allocation therein.

Jap small cap – up to 5% or 4k
India – up to 5% or 4k
Thailand – up to 5% or (but slowly) 5k
healthcare – up to 5% or 3k
First State Dividend Advantage – up to 3k
asia innovation – up to 2k
– Korean
– tech
– property
—-
I feel most global asset allocation methodologies would allocate quite a lot to US equities. So far, i treat US eq as just another country.

Perhaps look for some specific strategies within US equities. There are many special funds on FSM to choose from.

Right now I invest more than $200/month in various equity funds. Typically at least $100 is in US or a correlated fund. maintain $100/m?