Category: invest_gtmp

HighRisk_HighIncome_SmallQuantum: %%fav

Posted on by tiger40490

Look at my analysis of the SEA rental properties vs other assets. There is valuable self-knowledge that I gained by building the investment experience and by comparing against my friends —

Compared to other small investors, I’m more willing to believe in my research and discussions, and trust the sales agents. I’m more willing to embrace the risks in emerging markets.

I can see that most of my friends will not take these risks, so they won’t have this level of high-yield, long-term passive income. They may have rental yield from China or SG or U.S. High risk high (current) income.

— With these investments, we tend to think the hazard rate is rather high (hit and miss) but a hazard may not turn into a realized loss if you manage and contain it effectively.

eg: Megaworld delay — they didn’t promise a deadline

eg: Ritz delay

— Other examples of high-risk-high-return:

  • Some friends invest in U.S. rental properties with active management. Also high-risk-high-income.
  • Ashish’s INR time deposits feature 7% interest rate but currency devaluation risk.
  • Energy12 is high-risk-high-income
  • high-yielder currencies

defensive portfolio=overrated

Posted on by tiger40490

Defensive portolio is an important and popular theme, popular with retail investors, important in academia.

It assumes cashflow is the most important human need (necessary and almost sufficient factor), but how about food supply, healthcare, family?

Look at the blogpost such as G5 Shields@family_livelihood .. Adequate-cashflow-when-needed is only one of my top 5 protections, therefore overrated.

In a blackswan event (not as rare as earthquakes) such as the covid19 pandemic, ordinary people like me worry about food security, hospital overrun, restriction in travel and family reunion. These human needs … are beyond what cashflow can provide.

How about street safety, air/water pollution, water shortage, climate change?

income-oriented eq-funds: %%take

Posted on by tiger40490

I feel most of the big fund houses probably avoid the high-yield, high-risk stocks such as U.S. REITs.

I guess for them, 4% div is considered high. I assume the fund dividend payout comes strictly from stock dividend, not position liquidation. Therefore, a typical “high-income” equity fund can only pay 5% average. In reality it could swing between 3% and 7%

comparing credit risk] %%risky investments

Posted on by tiger40490

I have entrusted my money with Megaworld, Oxley, Ritz, Delphi, AsiaProperty, and now MIH. A single number is unable to capture the whole picture of credit risk:

  • In terms of the reputation at stake, Oxley is better
  • In terms of GRR trec， MIH is slightly better.
  • The final stroke to end the contest — Grade-A being so rare, the reputation at stake is rather high. MIH as a small developer has big ambitions and puts its name into every building name.

 

GTC pending orders missing #Rbh

Posted on by tiger40490

I found a more reliable place to see pending orders: portfolio -> scrolling list on the right -> look for  (+) 

It’s important to avoid confusing the poor Robinhood support team. OK to use slightly imprecise words (completely normal) to shorten the sentences, and cut to the chase.

https://robinhood.com/account/history?type=orders can only show half my GTC pending orders.

At any time, I have a few pending orders. Usually two to twenty GTC buy orders. Everyday I use https://robinhood.com/account/history?type=orders to see them, but in the last month I have noticed it always hides more than half my GTC pending orders.

For example, SPYD is never listed.

I use three Windows computers and no smartphone.

I reported this problem before. Your team requested me to clear browser cache, re-login, attach screenshots… Nothing helped. The screenshot is confusing, because my pending orders are a moving target because they keep changing as I open new orders and close previous orders.

My company compliance allows me to trade a given pre-cleared stock for 3 days only. So my GTC pending orders need to be cancelled after 3 days. That’s why I always want to see all my GTC pending orders.

My app version is Version 2021.4.29+hf.9 in baseline.

Screenshot is taken 2 Feb after trading hours:

image.png

##eg: time well-spent@investment research

Posted on by tiger40490
  • property research has the highest tangible value due to the quantum
  • Jill’s private equities — I spent many hour-long sessions before the German investment, until I felt comfortable
  • energy12
  • life/term insurance products in Singapore

negative eg: FSM — research is way too time-consuming and the funds are mediocre and simply lack quality. Most of them are unspectacular, so anyone spending hours and hours every week comparing them would eventually realize these funds are all very similar. Very few can beat SP500.

 

##recent investment track record #Jack.Z

Posted on by tiger40490
  • Dec 2018 I invested $2500 in a no-load mutual fund. Positive return so far.
  • Late 2018 I deplored about SGD 3k in various no-load mutual funds on FSM invested outside U.S. Mostly positive return so far.
  • Apr 2018 I invested 5k in an oil-field via a structured product. It has paid out 0.58% monthly dividends (7% pa, guaranteed) so far.
  • Mar 2017 I invested SGD 10k in a HYPE that repays 31% over 2 years. So far I have received the semi-annual payout without surprise.
  • In 2014-2016 I invested 3 times with another HYPE, each time SGD 10k. Two of them have repaid in full, with handsome profits, but the third one has defaulted. The company received my SGD 10k investment in Feb 2015 but was unable to repay as scheduled in Feb 2018. I’m not writing it off yet, as the company promises to repay investors in 2019 with interest.

##few asset classes worth investing 50k+

Posted on by tiger40490

I feel completely unconvinced about most investment products. Before investing in anything, my due diligence time and effort is rather high, so now I prefer bigger quantum. With bigger quantum, the due diligence is more worthwhile.

Q: in what asset classes do I feel comfortable investing 50k or more?

  1. my own home, to avoid paying rent!
  2. shops and other rental properties in good locations
  3. U.S. stocks including index. I might invest 10k, but not 50k. Current income too low.

Based on personal experiences and family members’ experiences, I feel much safer with “real” assets.

  1. short duration bonds

I invested over 100k in a U.S. high-yield bond fund but it didn’t perform well. I guess expRatio (1.36% now) is one factor.

commodity stocks^price: poor correlation

Posted on by tiger40490

The marketing propagandas from various sources often hint that as commodity demands (BRIC?) push up commodity prices, the commodity stocks (mining and beyond) would “certainly” appreciate.

Not so certain. In the real world there are many conflicting factors, to reduce that correlation to a barely meaningful level.