Category: Jill.Lim

[23]Jill’s ADP case

Posted on by tiger40490

k_X_focusing_illusion

To the authorities or any impartial observer, this case is more like risky investment and legit business failure, rather than fraud “running away with my money”. If I take that stance (painful) then I may have to accept it as business failure.

99% chance the authorities take it as civil not criminal case. I see a deadend there.

To pursue criminal case, I have to prove criminal intent.

As a civil case, the 2 options are both untenable — pay lawyer fees or DIY.

ProBono lawyer’s estimate — s$7k lawyer fee, indicative of the complexity and legwork.

Lawyer advice: monitor newspaper and then contact the receiver
Lawyer advice: sue ADP within 6Y if you really want justice.

Chance of $recovery is perceived rather low becuase
* Limited liability. Company can declare business failure.

Q: is the Sg system unfair to the small investors on the street?
%%A: Sg government emphasized entrepreneurship risk taking. Small investors are free to take risks. When they suffer losses, they ought to be fully prepared with the necessary contingency plans such as DIY lawsuit or paying lawyer fees. Some small investors are unwilling/unable to follow those plans, so they need to accept the default plan — no-op.

— focusing illusion .. tends to exaggerate this type of punishing, (punitive?), torturous, self-hateful aspect of our lives. This is a real hazard affecting every human.

When Loh Junli suggested a police report, he didn’t say it would be easy. I assumed it would be a one-time job, an easy closure. In reality, it has become an endless struggle. Once I lodged a police report, I wanted to ignore it but it made me feel guilty of abandoning my duty.

In hind sight, the police report was reopening a wound, exactly like a mild second rape. I had a decision to make when lodging the report — reopening or leaving the would unopened.

 

[19] Jill’s ptf: APD++

Posted on by tiger40490

As of 23 Dec 2019,

  1. +$2400 profit Germany
  2. +$2800 profit Airtropolis
  3. – $7700 loss MajesticVillage assuming no more payout after the first two ($800, $1600)
  4. +$200 from MajesticVillage in Feb and Mar 2018
  5. — ADP [AsiaPropertyDevelopment]
  6. +$3300 profit ADP as agreed in contract
  7. +700 profit ADP Oct 2019. See gmail [[Dr Soon’s letter dated 16 Jul]]

##[23]MajesticVillage police report #Jill

Posted on by tiger40490

— emotional closure

  • police did quite a lot of work, beside giving detailed updates face to face … worthwhile trip
  • money did go out to Brazil
  • To the authorities, my financial loss is $10k-800-1600. The $100 admin fee is supposed to be a transaction cost borne (not “born”) by investors
  • No evidence of negligence, dishonesty, ponzi scheme,,,,, so no justification for clawback of sales commission.

RitzG5 CEO probably passed away. In many legal jurisdictions, this event can legitimately bring about an “overnight closure”, where the company ceases operation and stops all communication. In some cases, investors are unable to receive anything from the company’s remaining asset, meaning the local law protects the company shareholders more than us investors.

My case appears to be a company “business failure”. Similar to a stock collapse.

Before investing, I didn’t know about the legal risk, and key-man risk.

Initially, when I made the police report, I didn’t expect much. Now I realize the ensuing complexity, the effort by police, endless follow-up effort by me is much bigger. After the 4 Sep 2023 interview at Tanlin HQ, I felt much better and sighed a sigh of relief. Even though monetary loss remains exactly unchanged, my suspicion, burden of duty (to follow through), self-hate ,,, have all lightened.

Aha, even without livelihood impact, I would feel a real and permanent emotional pain if..

  • if the loss is 100k+, even though it won’t affect my livelihood
  • if police refuses to investigate or my case queues up for decades, while the bad guys keep cheating.
  • if without due diligence police simply blames my misjudgement and case closed. I guess this is how Edwin’s family felt.
  • if there remains a non-trivial suspicion of foul play, as was the case from 2019 to 2022

— https://www.companies.sg/business/201217419M/RITZ-PROPERTY-INVESTMENT-ASIA-PTE-LTD- shows a live company with address. Police told me this company is a small local office only.

— Police report #E-20220304-2054. Kelly Quek 63914712

— Ritz-G5 is featured in http://www.sunmediaonline.com/magazine/brazil/brazil16.pdf (uploaded to google drive) , along with MajesticVillage. This pdf is a 2016 magazine.

Note the company domain name is now for sale.

— https://majesticvillagebyshenton.wordpress.com/ mentions Shenton the marketing agency

(entire page uploaded to google drive)

— https://majesticvillagebyshenton.wordpress.com/updates/ mentions a 2014 due-diligence trip by the Singapore team, but the video has been deleted.

HY/PE[def] #le2Kun.h

Posted on by tiger40490

Hi Hu Kun,

This scheme comes under various names — Private Equity / High Yield bond / co-investment partnership / Ponzi scheme:) I call it HighYieldPrivateEquity

1) Indeed the legal contract names a specific business entity paying “partners” (me) a fixed payout. I just feel the entity name isn’t as important as the real people behind it.

2) Default risk – yes they could run away with my money and declare the business entity bankrupt. Lehman did that to Singapore investors. A more well-known entity is perceived to be safer, but MAS won’t underwrite (guarantee) every financial institution it regulates. There’s still some default risk in some of these products. I look at their track record and their reputation. I feel a big name wouldn’t want to get their names in the news by cheating small investors.

My view on transparency:

  • Most retail products are transparent, otherwise MAS wouldn’t give you license to sell to retail
  • Many transparent and well-known investment products don’t stipulate payout amount or date (Mine spells out everything). This category include stocks, mutual funds, gold. They come with market risk, not credit risk.
  • The best-known and safest products with “guaranteed returns” are offered by heavily regulated banks and insurers. They either pay very low return (CD) and/or require lengthy lock-in period (insurance)
  • High-yield Corporate bonds are transparent and do offer guaranteed return. I find the return still too low, largely due to the transparency. In contrast, mine offers around 15% coupon rate, but what’s the default risk? Once you spend a few hours to understand the business, you can assess the risk. Before you do that, you have to assume default risk is very, very high.
  • Suppose your brother approaches you to lend him $10k and promises to pay you back in a year (or 2) with 20% annual return. Based on your knowledge of his revenue, you could assess his default risk. Without that knowledge, you have to assume default risk is very, very high.

My experience investing in HYPE bonds:

  1. About 30 months ago I put $10k into a German real estate product offering fixed return of 24% over 2Y. Cashed out successfully.
  2. About 18 months ago I put $10k into a Brazil real estate product offering fixed return of 28% over 2Y. Received on 29 Sep 2017

So far, no default no delay. But doesn’t mean “never will”. When will I get hit by the first default event in my investment career? Could be 2018, 2019 … I embrace myself.

My rule of thumb – invest an amount that you can afford to lose.

The “amount you can afford to lose” depends on your nett monthly cash flow + your free cash pile after all liabilities. If you have S$200k cash (or cash equivalent), with no debt but with regular passive income to support your family, then you probably can afford to lose $2k to $10k? With the same $200k cash, some people can afford to lose $50k, if their monthly nett cash flow is very positive like positive $10k.

Jill’s HY/PE #aka private equity

Posted on by tiger40490

This is like a private HY bond without secondary market. My rationale on this investment:

  1. Good: low exposure/commitment, so my absolute risk is limited
  2. Good: contractual payout date and amount, with penalty on delays — sign of confidence, cf my properties and FSM
  3. Good: 2Y only. Excellent liquidity. Comparable to the average exit time frame on FSM
  4. Good: hedge against property and stock markets.
    1. diversification. Low correlation with stock markets
  5. Good: absolute return is very high against theoretically zero price uncertainty.
  6. Good: half-yearly payout, better than all my previous investments.
  7. ——- other advantages not ranked ——-
  8. Good: Based in Singapore cf my overseas properties
  9. Good: passive income, cf FSM
  10. Good: apparently many big investors are taking the same risk with this small company
  11. Good: return doesn’t come with an embedded option like many banks products do

What’s the implied probability of default? Assuming exactly two outcomes : either a 33% or -19% return. Assuming I’m willing to accept 7% return [1] over 2Y. The probability is 50/50.

[1] I was willing to accept 4% return with very poor liquidity, so 3.5% over 2Y is acceptable

Based on these advantages, I’m willing to risk my 10k. What are the risks?

  • risk: small, bold company, with some track record
  • risk: this small shop is borrowing my money at 15% interest!
  • risk: the contract is backed not by a big name, though a big name usually comes with poor liquidity, embedded option or much lower return.