##high-ROI ] %%experience

S$profit % realized incl capital annual ROI[2] capital category windfall
2.2k 122% over 2Y c 10.5% 10k PE German investment
6.6k very low delayed 10k PE Brazil invest #1 #3Y
2.8k 128% over 2Y [1] c 13% not 14% 10k PE Brazil invest #2
S$200k[3] zero 🙁 c 12% up to 2017 USD 90k home #2 USD90k invested in Beijing
S$240k[4] 237% over 8Y c 11% only 175k home #1 Blk 177
v v    trivial amounts     v v
1.4k 170% over 2Y c 30% roughly USD 2k US eq Legg Mason US funds
below 1k 110% within a year 15% roughly 1k equity selected eq funds

Turned out to be mostly real estate, so all my gold and bond investments pale in comparison.

Actually, at my age I need current income more than windfall… see separate blog

[1] there was $100 admin fee, but they paid out an extra $100 to compensate for it
[2] not compound return if no ‘c’. Note compound return above 4% is lucky and hard to maintain
[3] 2017 value = 20% x CNY 8.5M
[4] excluding rental savings

[18] 20 unbelievable bargains

Lookalike? Unlike ##G5 personal winn`bets: long-term impact@livelihood, this blogpost is not about big bets.

  • [u=unbelievable. I would not have entertained such a suggestion a few years earlier; unbelievable bargain; too good to be true.]
    • Defying my common-sense, becuase our intuition is completely unreliable in these cases.
    • These are often unexpected successes, and deserve in-depth analysis
  • [v= “undervalued” in terms of my subconscious valuation or market valuation, when I bought]
  • [h= top 5 heavy hitter]
  • [hh v] I “bought”SG early, when it was undervalued
  • — education
  • [h v] UChicago — the Nobel prize count lent prestige on my degree. My $cost and tcost was very high, but in 2013 the prestige was undervalued.
  • [h vv] Singapore universities — charge a fraction of the U.S. private universities but offer comparable quality.
  • — ccost (calorie cost)
  • [u] rice pudding
  • nonfat ice cream
  • [u] washed and heated baby carrot — tasty like starchy foods but very low calorie and high fiber
  • my lentils — whole box is 600 cal, extremely filling, whereas 100 gram of peanuts (1/4 of my 小金生 packet) has the same calories. Why the hell do I worry about my lentils?
  • — $cost (prices)
  • [uv] Malaysia (retirement) — offers decent healthcare and rental homes at a fraction of the U.S. costs. You would think quality must be questionable but reality could be completely different.
  • yoga classes — are SGD30 each or SGD 155/M. In the U.S. it’s $32×12+50 below USD36/M
  • fruits in Chinatown — sell at a fraction of supermarket price… You would think rotten, but mostly good.
  • —salaries
  • [u] According to my chat with the Macquarie support chap, a bright engineering fresh graduate like him in Singapore earns SGD3500/M or SGD 40k/Y but USD 120K pretax in NY
  • a 8Y+ programmer earns SGD 70k/Y but USD 150k pretax in NY
  • java job pays 20% higher than perl jobs and offer far more opportunities.
  • [u] Front office trading IT jobs pay higher than PWM jobs, sometimes less stress and many more opportunities. Unthinkable  in 2007.
  • — workload and stress
  • Qz job — pays no higher than MS job but 5 times higher stress partly due to perm job and limited job market in SG.
  • GS job — pays about half the 95G, Barc or citi jobs, but 3 times higher stress
  • — investments
  • [u] Some properties don’t appreciate much, with GRY 4%, but my BridgeRetail has guaranteed NRY of 7%. Too good to be true.
  • [h] My Blk 177 — property yields current rental income every year until 2010 and then gave a windfall.
  • [h] CPF-life — a real bargain compared to other annuities.

[13] ideas@retirement planning

Let’s not spend a lot of time on this blog post, but Look how much my retirement plan has improved

  1. * annuity — cpf-life
  2. * rental properties
  3. * medishield

—- 2013 email —-
Disclaimer — I’m not seriously retirement-planning. Just random thoughts. The [1][2].. items are my retirement ideas.

I feel many people rely on their home as retirement, but you can’t easily get cash out of the house. So it doesn’t really generate cash needed in retirement. It’s rather important to ensure the home can be rented out to generate supplementary income [1].The better the location, the more likely. It would be idea if you can get a 2nd, perhaps small home to rent out.

Another common thing people do is full time investing (gambling). I’m not sure at all. I’d rather leave my money with the professional fund managers. I’m more in favour of high-dividend investments.

If I have the time and good health, and needs money, I’m more in favour of working into old age[2]. Some professions are easier to find work – such as hourly work. Teaching is one field to offer work into old age.

Medical insurance [3] is quite important, esp. for catastrophic, or chronic.

Annuity [4] is a relevant option to me.

REIT^property^E12 #bargain+debt #w1r2

Buying an individual property provides much higher return than buying a comparable REIT. The key — bargain!

Say you have 300k to invest, either in a property or in a simple property-holding REIT without any value enhancement.

  • if you are inexperienced, I think the REIT is safer due to liquidity, diversification etc. You may earn $15k/Y or 5% in dividend.
  • if you are experienced, you can spot bargains and get good rental yield and/or appreciation. You could earn 24k/Y or 8% in NRY + 200K~600k capital gain. You won’t get the same from the REIT. In fact the REIT company boss is another experienced investor. She spots bargains, which generate outsize returns, but she won’t pass on all the profits to you in the form of REIT dividends. She would keep most of the profit as her own profit !

In fact, this is similar to Macquarie MIRA fund (or AsiaProperties or a hedge fund) spotting bargains and passing on a small part of the profit to investors. A decent hedge fund typically passes on a good portion to investors to make 6% return in a reasonable year. Clearly the fund itself makes a lot more profit.

Bargain picking is high-risk-high-return game These fund managers risk OPM (optionally with some house money at, say, 22% of the total) but cut a disproportionate share of the return, much higher than the 22%. In other words, investors take on all the risk, but receive part of the return.

Debt — is another Fundamental difference. Debt is frequently used by REIT operators, as a double-edge sword. Though it can enhance return (possibly the dividend yield), I generally avoid debts in my own property investments because the mortgage interest can erode my rental income.

The above probably describes the Singapore REITs. Now let’s look at the more advanced REITs, highly “visible” in the U.S. I can see this process in Energy12, AsiaProperties and MIRA (Macqurie Infrastructure and Real Asset).  These deal makers can create huge value on the real estate bargain assets they buy. They enhance the assets and generate large profits, but again, the few individuals (deal makers) involved invariably keep a disproportionate share of the profit.

— In all REITs, the apportionment of profit includes “sweat equity”.
Say deal makers put in $12M, and REIT investors put in $88M. Out of the gross profit, deal maker first takes 50% as compensation. The remaining “net profit” is split 12:88 based on investment amount or outstanding shares. Effectively, the sweat equity is equivalent to $100M of capital.

REIT investors receive 88% of the net profits i.e. 44% of gross profit, which could translate to a 10.3% annualized return, beating the benchmark.

Suppose you as a REIT investor complains about the 50/50 split. Deal maker could say “If investors don’t rely on my bargain hunting skill, then they get none of this return. Investors could choose not to invest with me. It was investors’ choice .. take it or leave it. If you think you can get bargains yourself, then you can run your own REIT.”

next property: which country

— carefree

SG is best country.  Consider upgrading to a jumbo unit at an additional SGD 200k?

If I work in the U.S. then a nearby location is also good.

— rental yield is good but am not desperate

  1. Tiny shops in prime locations are the best. However, China shop rental yield is not good.
  2. U.S. rental property is also good.
  3. Thailand/MYS/Philippines resort homes in prime locations

— diversify? LG2

when unfamiliar,prefer tiny investment #200k home

One of our Fundamental motivation is diversification. (Risk reduction is just one of the benefits of diversification.)  I guess those who put all the eggs in one basket (such as a 2nd property) could hit higher return than I do, but it’s not without risk. I think the risk in property investment is less understood than public securities, and underestimated.

With multiple small investments, I could sell one of them. I think this flexibility would be appreciated when the time comes.

My first buy of anything is often an experiment, which gives me insight. I am sure to gain huge insights about what specific things are important to me as opposed to what are popular on the market. After that, I would make bigger commitments on the back of /conviction/.

A practical factor — bank loan restrictions. You may have difficulty getting mortgage on a 2nd home. You may need to pay off the first mortgage, which is harder if the first price tag is big.

  • — other important reasons:
  • See also u.s.home buy: don’t rush; beware 
  • financial burden — see $$: affordability @700k home 
  • difficulty of rent-out grows linearly with price tag — see $$: affordability @700k home If you fail to rent out, the bigger price tag also comes with bigger tax!
  • flexibility if circumstances require adjustments. Nimble, lighter “load”. Not Tied-down (Jack’s point). With a smaller commitment I could more easily move home. An academic school district could be unsuitable for my kids
  • less commitment, lower exposure — eg: Jill’s
  • lower risk of regret or nasty surprises — eg: unit trusts

pick your favorite(avoid popular)unit ]gr8location->appreciate

I have only one experience but I will extrapolate. In a good location, a rising tide lifts all boats, no matter how unfavorable it was.

  • I didn’t mind walk-up to Floor 4. Many buyers get put off right away, but still it appreciated.
  • I didn’t mind solar radiation on the top floor. Many buyers mind, but still appreciated.
  • I didn’t mind the heat from afternoon sun. It’s an immediate red flag to many buyers, but still it appreciated.
  • I didn’t mind a very old building (1974). It’s among the oldest and shows it’s age, but still it appreciated.
  • I didn’t mind a small unit, not the most common and popular type. I bought a studio in BGC + #4-116. At least the #4-116 unit appreciated
  • The “original” kitchen tiles are an eye-sore, but I didn’t mind and the next buyer simply ignored it, so appreciation unaffected.
  • I didn’t mind low floor at #2-1173. I hope it will also appreciate.

 

property/REIT^stock ^HY: consistent div+ appreciation@@

Q1: which ones can achieve capital appreciation while generating consistent income?

Clearly properties can, but is that the only asset class?

REITs? Not sure. See other post.

HY bonds can pay good coupon dividends, but capital appreciation is rare.

I think growth stocks can have fastest capital appreciation, but generally don’t pay consistent dividends. In contrast, I guess utility stocks pay consistent dividends but without comparable capital appreciation.

Q2: Are there reliable stocks with consistent dividend history + capital appreciation potential? Look at https://tanbinvest.dreamhosters.com/2017/01/20/attractive-assets-must-be-expensive/. Whatever the company size and location,  investors the world over would be interested. It’s  easy to buy a small amount and exit any time, so the risks, liquidity, information availability and mind-share … is ten-fold better than any property in any (global) city. Such a poster boy is sure to trade a premium, therefore limiting its room for further appreciation. If it’s not traded at a premium, then there must be something unfamiliar or unsavory about it.

Can we afford not2invest excess fund@@

Some people (Group 0) don’t choose or like to buy a home or any long-term investment.

Some people (Group 1) only buy a single home for own use. No other investments. They leave the spare cash (if any) in CD.

Q: Can we afford not to invest spare cash@@
%%A (short answer): I can afford to be in Group 1 not Group 0

I feel Group 0 tend to save less, even though they leave money (if any) in CD. When I have a mortgage to pay off, I feel the constant motivation/pressure to save. (Look at Aunt Genn.) Now I have no mortgage but I have firm plan to buy a house. I feel a lower pressure but still a real pressure to save.

My ex-colleague Trevor is a special case in Group 0. He invests in stocks and other liquid securities and grows his portfolio steadily. He targets 10% growth every year on his entire portfolio. I don’t know anyone else doing that.

I feel Group 1 is fairly common. Perhaps the default choice. I feel these people are missing out property opportunities [1], but perhaps the property price is so big that their entire savings can buy only half a house and they don’t like a heavy mortgage (me before 2015).

[1] every investment opportunity comes with non-trivial risks.

I feel in that case Group 1 should seriously consider stocks and bonds, or risk losing out in the long run — See Inflation due to property appreciation. However, for me, most of these investments were low return (i guess 2% to 6% annualized)  or stuck for a long time, so I’m not impressed and I am pulling out as of 2017.

Until 2015, Most of my USD was sitting in the bank — like Group 1.

My Biggest concern for Group 0 — they keep paying on rent .. going down the drain. Therefore, the higher the rent, the worse I would feel if in Group 0.

In Singapore, with the public housing provisions, HDB BTO prices are managed and won’t grow out of control. So young Singaporeans could afford to wait till 35 (or 40)? A major benefit as Singapore citizens. Other countries don’t have this policy.

I (Yinghui?) was lucky not to be in Group 0, because I bought a small home early.