#1-166 ThePeak
#2-176 TheBridge
#3-163 TheBridge
#FO-1020 Flatiron
Category: rEstateSEA
BGC RPT[Real Property Tax] #record
First payment was 18 Mar 2021. Kondoko portal shows
Expenses-Bills – Condo Dues for Common Area
Attachment
Period Coverage: 1 year common area tax
State start and end date from bill. January to December 2021
Date:2021-03-18
-6,784.00
SG-JB symbiotic relationship: won’t change
In financial scenario plann, we often assert that nothing can be taken for granted and any part of the status quo is subject to change. However, some relationships don’t change. The SG-JB symbiotic relationship has weathered decades of political, demographic and other changes and is growing stronger in terms of infrastructure.
Covid19 lock-down has served to remind (leaders on ) both sides the meaning, the value of this symbiosis.
I believe that locations near CIQ will continue to be prime locations.
BGC fire insurance: 2tough choices #chipaway
I need to accept the (/unpleasant/) reality —
- On one hand, we receive constant reminders about the importance of insurance.
- On the other hand, the quotes we get from Aleris are always unreasonable. Maybe Aleris only works with a small number of insurers?
— Those “constant reminders” are unwelcome. I think they are like “PC health scan” scares. Good to receive once a decade but not every year. I would say that the risk of fire is relatively low, and a fact of life. I myself constantly live under the threats of … (half-ranked by likelihood)
- health disasters,
- traffic accidents,
- financial woes,
- natural disasters,
- kidnap risks,
- ^^ [19]random derailers@ffree has other threats beyond my *recent* worries.
— option: legwork: I could take on the legwork and contact the insurers by myself
— option: call Aleris to explain the situation
— option (default): do nothing and stay uninsured.
condo^landed ^commercial: MYS context
Jesscy said “Malaysia is good IFF you want to stay there.”
Residential … foreigners must buy high-end units of RM 1M+. They are hard to rent out
— I found this discussion in the Malaysia magazine [[Personal Money]]. I feel the Malaysia context is somewhat similar to the Singapore context.
- For rental yield, prefer condo
- For capital appreciation, prefer landed
- For a combination of both, prefer commercial rental properties, “where it’s possible to get the best of both worlds” as described by Milan Doshi. I hope this is true in other Asia countries.
Milan Doshi liked prime locations along the Malaysia MRT stations, or well-established neighborhoods. I agree that the top 3 factors are Location, Location and Location.
Vincent Ng pointed out “Unfortunately, landed property gives you poor (rental) returns.” He also said condo give good rental payout. “In the past, people wouldn’t buy property unless they got 7% to 10% in (rental) returns, but now anything above the 4% to 5% benchmark is difficult to come by”. I think he refers to NGRY.
BDYK + fwd hazard rate #BGC/MIH
For each overseas rEstate project, there are a few miletones, each with serious hazards/risks
- project completion .. Hazards can cause lengthy delays (BGC [1]). Some unreliable developer can disappear (RitzG5). MIH is a good example [2]
- vicinity development can take decades. Until that vague “milestone”, your building might be the only decent building in the area. No jobs, no parks, no retail, no “buzz“
- renovation completion .. furnishing, fixing problems. Some units are “completed” but unusable.
- land title registered .. Risks? legal risks
- mtg approved .. Risks? poor mtg rate or no banks
- finding a local agent and negotating the terms .. hazard? Some locations have no agent at all.
- first tenant signed.. hazards? May not find anyone at all for years. Perhaps oversupply in the location. Perhaps the location doesn’t have the buzz of Uptown.
- Milesstone-9: 1Y probation completed with the agent .. Risks? Many owner-agent relationships don’t work out.
- ^^ One of these milestones may appear to be too trivial to be a milestone, but I have seen investors getting stuck at each of these things, always due to some serious hazard.
FHR [forward hazard rate] := the aggregate amount (count and magnitude) of potential derailers [swans, missteps] per year. Usually we ignore the per-year part [4]. In the beginning we face the highest hazard rate i.e. many things could fall on us or derail our train. At each milestone, our total (forward) hazard rate improves, as uncertianties become well-known and familiar risks.
BDYK [Better the Devil You Know] is a key observation/experience in FHR.
[1] For example, the BGC asset has survived many hazards and is now a much safer asset than it was in 2015, therefore worth a BDYK-adjusted SGD 300k, even if we ignore (or don’t know) the market value changes.
[2] MIH — When I first paid down payment, FHR was huge and off-putting (show stopper to many investors) largely due to credit risk of an unknown developer. After completion, the biggest hazard was removed, and the asset is now worth a BDYK-adjusted USD 200k.
[4] When do we actually use per-year yardstick? In the stable phase. FHR in the per-year sense captures the amount of headaches, stress, derailers (of my bubble)
Does FHR ever worsen? Only in rare swan events like covid19. This exception proves the norm that FHR always improves until Milestone-9 or somewhere nearby.
— paradox of rEstate concentration risk
If you buy in 9 countries you are bound to hate one of them, often due to hazards. It’s then logical to exit that country and increase concentration in the best of those 9 countries.
On a less macro level, once you are familiar with a given country or developer, FHR would be better than X years ago (when you were unfamiliar). It’s now logical to increase concentration with (eg) MIH.
This “logical” allocation ought to be balanced with the (equally logical) need for diversification.
Look at U.S. or China rEstate investors. Most of them stay in home country. Zero diversification by country.
— positive cash flow -> self-sustainable i.e. the highest level of success.
Q: As of 2014, when we heard of SG investors flocking to an overseas “opportunity”, how many percent of them would reach Milestone-9 of positive cashflow with a reliable local rental agent?
A: Below 30%. Possibly 20%. It’s nearly impossible to achieve positive cashflow, if you have a mortgage with P+I. (Biggest problem is P).
Many investors would ask about my appreciation margin. For them self-sustainability is not the highest level of success. I don’t care about their priorities. I don’t even know the valuation, but I’m sure it’s better than my initial. What’s important to me is carefree and positive cashflow, not windfall appreciation.
— appreciation .. I feel after you can demonstrate that your unit has a proven rental yield, you can get a higher valuation than before completion.
This is logical, but many logical predictions don’t happen. I can list many reasons.
FHR has shown a real improvement. Many of the big question marks and big clouds are cleared.
— Overseas rEstate .. is the main focus of this blogpost. Local projects are much easier for investors.
==== Fwd Hazard Rate, without the “per-year” part, is also applicable beyond pff
immigration offenses and criminal record affects a career more in the earlier stage of a longer career. The FWR depends on the “remaining lease”.
FHR affects a marriage the most soon after babies are born and improves as kids become less dependent on the continuing marriage of their parents.
BGC2 #trust@Megaworld
— offer to buy over Raymond’s unit, with GEX as advisor
- 🙂 meeting my top filter conditions — quantum; prime location. very hard to find in other countries.
- 🙂 twin unit, possibly better rental yield, no lower than single units.
- .. hopefully lower fees or better service with Aleris
- .. flexibility of renting and selling. Can offer as two independent units or a combined unit.
- .. NRY still considered low
- 🙂 imperfect but familiar ecosystem/environment, better FHR than in a new country
- 🙂 good timing as pandemic is lifting
- 🙂 good timing as my HDB mortgage can help me…
- 🙂 save on sales commission, though I may still need to pay NCT some amount.
- 🙂 iFF I must, I don’t mind overpaying a bit to a good friend. I want to say it with sincerity and avoid over-promise.
- 🙂 I think Raymond has less time on his side and wants to sell earlier. I have a longer horizon (age 75?) So I can take over his hot potato.
- 👎👎 country-risk::currency
- 👎👎 Megaworld is not very reputable. I kinda trust NCT, but I could cross-check with Aleris. I choose to believe the overcharge accusation. As to the the delay in title transfer, I can see that they don’t take it seriously. See title transfer: Megaworld^Cambodia.
- 👎 inefficient legal system
- 🙂 lower legal risk due to good seller, so title transfer is less risky.
- 👎 risk of damaging our friendship. Need to proceed with advice.
- 👎 concentration risk with an unreliable developer, in a non-performing country
- 👎 country-risk::economic
- 👎 high HOA/condoFees
— 👎 NGRY .. hopefully better than SG condo
👎 oversupply in the BGC region, hurting rental yield and (to some extent) resale price.
— 👎 very bad for my U.S. relocation plan. Even worse than a SG commercial property
Is it easy to sell within a few years, before I move family to the U.S. ? Need to ask around.
title transfer: Megaworld^Cambodia
If the delay is normal in that country, such as GrC, then I’m not worried
judgement/perception about Megaworld is the key to my worry.
— Megaworld: Call +63-2-8888-6342, then choose account services, then title matters 6458
— My experience of Megaworld^Cambodia.. Cambodia process is many years faster than Philippines. I already received my titles + tax cards from Oxley, even though the projects completed much later than Megaworld.
My hypothesis and suspicion: Megaworld invents countless internal steps before the documents go to the government. Initially it was, say 3 internal steps, but then one of the internal steps consist of 2 sub steps. Then one of those 2 steps consists of 4 small steps… So the total steps keep growing, as Megaworld staff give new explanations of the detailed steps. In reality, perhaps each of the original steps should take a few months, so the smaller steps should take a few seconds, but Megaworld just drags on and on.
Very poor attitude in Megaworld. Reminds me of U.S. government red tapes in DMV, tax department, immigration…
Part of the delay might be Philippines government, but I don’t see any evidence of that.
— xpSelf^rmSelf
For a few months since mid 2021, I looked away and put away the title thing, so my xpSelf was somehow protected, inside a bubble of carefree…
The longer I put it away, the bigger that invisible pressure to confront this persistent ulcer (slightly similar to Majestic Village). So the evaluative rmSelf often steps in and wipes out the recent positive experience (lasting many months) of the xpSelf, and concludes that the last N months have been “lost”. Now I think this conclusion is unfair and inconsistent with reality. In reality, even if you keep pushing on this title thing, it may not move faster, and the effort is likely to aggravate the stress (and suffering) on the xpSelf. In other words, looking at (rather than looking away) the ulcer takes a toll on the xpSelf.
Some people, some organizations, some governments are just slow and inefficient, not too different from a tree planted in barren soil. If you believe they are still working on your case, then it’s conceivable to give them a few months of time, and also give your xpSelf a few months of carefree happy ezlife.
(With Aleris and AsiaPropDev, I do belive they are working on it, so I leave them alone for a few months/years.)
If Megaworld is not working on it, then this is a recurring dissatisfaction blackhole.
The Focusing_Illusion can make the ulcer look worse and feel more painful.
Aleris/BGC bill mgmt: email^blog^s/s
Q: (as of mid Jan 2021) for the last few days, have I overspent time on this? I did postpone the t-spend ?
A: no. If there’s a mis-calc or unnoticed (but legit) charge, then consequence is hard to estimate.
A: No. I would say the tcost (and legwork) is inevitable. We just aim to minimize it while keeping control over the information overload.
[[a few points on billing]] email has some summary.
In terms of MIS (management information system), I have an advantage over other landlords in the same shoes. Like a winUp, The “audit” challenge is non-trivial for the majority of remote landlords, and can be heavy, painful and very complicated. Many give up and accept incorrect accounting. I will use a combination of emails + blog + spreadsheet. There is also a Kondoko portal “system” but I can’t update anything there. I wish the portal content is reliable and consistent.
— record keeping of PNB transactions
- deposit slips .. archived by Kondoko. Once sent to me, it is easy to archive.
- PNB_SOA .. easy to archive. More reliable than deposit slips.
- ^^ above two can be kept in one zip file, sent in emails
- spreadsheet of PNB transactions .. annotated summary of the PNB_SOA. Valuable, but time-consuming
- bpost table of PNB transactions .. most accessible … keep it as a summary of the spreadsheet
— comparing s/s ^ blog ^ email
- s/s .. most powerful numerically. Need to designate one master storage like github?
- blog .. clearly more accessible , and more linkable, than s/s and gmail. Good for a summary, possibly in-depth.
- Email .. closest to “raw_data”, but hard to edit.
— https://www.kondokoportal.com/Pages?view=login bin_tan/1111
Focus is the itemized bill .. (The totals at the bottom are confusing but usually correct, less easy_to_miss)
— use a spreadsheet to track an entire lease.
====emails: The PNB eSOA is reliable and complete, just as other banks’ eStatements. (You need x84) However, it is not part of the system below.
The central “objects” in this OO design are the email (with or without attachment). All other features revolve around these emails. Emails are easy to copy but troublesome to “edit” (via annotated forwards).
- annotated forwards — those emails to my mlp mail with comments in body, and optionally changing subject
- .. can delete earlier annotated forwards
- .. mlp MSOutlook has better folders.
- A single mail from Kondoko can be copied multiple times within my email systems, with different subjects.
- I feel every monthly bill should have some comments
— In general, I prefer attachment than links to online bills. Attachments are easy to copy, save. I take control of their safe storage.
BGC rental cashflow summary: Heverly
— Arnel (Racelis) .. the third tenant
— Heverly (Bravo) .. the 2nd tenant
bin_tan acct | monthly_fees .. | ||||||||
credit | debit | ..which months | |||||||
+300k | Aug’21-Jul | Heverly paid 25k * 12 | |||||||
-25k | Aug’21-Jul | Kondoko 1M commission | |||||||
? | Aug’21-Jul | misc fees.. unknown amount | |||||||
-244k | Aug’21-Jul | 10 payment slips to PNB VTan | |||||||
-31k | Jan’21-Dec | HOA paid 8 Jan 2021 | |||||||
-7k | Jan’21-Dec | RPT paid 18 Mar 2021 | |||||||