BGC=diversify from Cambodia

Q: do you regret the BGC investment and rather buy a 4th shop in Cambodia?

A dangerous thought. Such an idea ignores tail risk. In a bad scenario, over-concentration hurts, and diversification has a chance to save the day.

Before buying a property, many prudent investors envision all the negative scenarios, as part of due diligence, but we change once we become an owner. As a human nature, owners tend to focus on the happy scenario – the rental guarantee, stable currency.. Don’t fall into that trap. Always allocate enough energy and focus to scenario planning.

There are

  • macro risks,
  • credit risk of Oxley
  • market risks,
  • rental risks

3 killer features@%%KHM assets

  • drawback: liquidity
  • drawback: concentration risk
  • drawback: less hot money, low windfall potential due to mind-share

For a balanced view I need to list the above drawbacks, but this post is really about the features:

  1. Feature P: capital protection #by various protective factors esp. CapLand
  2. Feature 10: consistent, frequent, and relatively high net cash payout over 10Y
  3. Feature L: low legwork/maintenance

Such a combination is hard to match, but I won’t use superlatives like “impossible” or “perfect”.

  • BGC + China properties? lack feature P (currency…), feature 10 (low GRY) and feature L
  • REITs? lack feature P and 10 (yield may drop to 3% of my initial investment)
  • Energy12? lacks feature P
  • Jill’s products? lacks feature 10

popular^lesser-known financial products#BGC

  • for popular assets like AAPL or eurusd, we can say any information is quickly disseminated so the market price is presumably fair.
  • for lesser-known stocks, information is available but retail mind-share is limited. More bargains exist, but they are the focus of many mutual funds and hedge funds!
  • — now properties:
  • for properties in popular (liquid but overpriced) locations, each unit probably receives a fair amount of scrutiny, so deep discount is often due to negative factors.
    • BGC is more popular than surrounding areas and therefore overpriced.
  • In Bayonne or Cambodia, for each unit the number of serious investors is probably very very low, so bargains are more likely. The amount of un-assimilated information is high, since each investor must wade through lots of raw data and ask many questions.

 

BridgeRetail^BGC #rose-tinted

Diversify. There’s too much uncertainty so we aren’t sure if A is definitely better than B. After some (black swan) events, B may appear better than A.

–BGC advantages:

  • Chun Tih is a known friend and co-investor
  • maturity of the BGC location — BGC has undergone development for 20 years, with many successful projects in operation. Higher chance of stable growth.
  • Developer track record — One of the most established developers in the Ph, also operates McDonald’s and Resorts World (Genting) in the Philippines.
  • Raymond is co-investing. Granted we could all suffer together, but at least I don’t need to deal with it alone. Feels better.
  • supply — limited supply in this enclosed location for the BGC professional workers BUT there is possibly a glut of residential towers in and near BGC
  • Philippines economy — more developed more integrated into world economy -> slightly lower risk BUT perhaps lower upside, and more risk of drop
  • more English-speaking educated workforce.

–Phnom Penh shop advantages:

  • Can hold — for 10Y. Property requires holding power, whether developing or developed countries.
  • shops — tend to generate higher rent and longer tenancy
  • guaranteed rent — No worry about vacancy
  • dollarized economy
  • competing suppliers — very few shops for sale, BUT future shopping malls will compete for tenants
  • hassle free — no taxes, repairs .. to worry about
  • Singapore developer — DBS underwriting; retail bond issuer… BUT a small developer.
  • higher NGRY — probably 10%+. http://www.mlnconsultant.com/jpz/jpz_zixun/2021.html
  • For both shops and homes, oversupply is not obvious.
  • Phnom Penh feels safer, less chaotic than Manila
  • 快速城镇化时期

personal Perception:how soon2sell BGC condo #economist

An 8VIC trainfer said — buy property only if you are convinced the local economy would grow over the long term. In such a context, property is a good inflation protection.

[2017/9/14] Hi Raymond,

I briefly described my Philippines property investment to a professional economist at Macquarie. He briefly pointed out a few basic principles applicable to any residential property market, across countries (I will add some principles of my own).

* Is the local population growing? I think so in our case
* is the population young or old? Young in our case. I think population aging is more common in Japan, Europe and developed countries
* Is their income level rising? I think the rise is reasonable
* Do you have 10 (or even 20) year horizon? I think at our age we can afford to wait 10 years.

He felt if all the answers are favorable, then we will witness positive return, in terms of rental income + appreciation.

I feel normal inflation would also boost property valuation. I think in a high-inflation economy, property is even more important, as an inflation protection.

I believe foreign investors are less reliable. Their hot money can come and go more quickly. They are likely to be “investors” rather than residents. Residential (local or foreign) demand is more stable and more “real” in my view.

[Market risk] Are our units affordable to the local buyers or only foreigners? I guess our small units are more affordable than the bigger units. One Philippines colleague said the price level is affordable to locals.

[Market risk] Did we buy overpriced? I don’t think so, as compared to other properties at that time. Did we buy at the peak? No idea. If we did, then we need to wait 10 years.

I also feel that way, at least sometimes. There’s bubble tendency in many top cities. Some feel Philippines also shows bubble tendency. Even the price level in Phnom Penh (much lower than BGC) is sometimes seen as bubble.
I like to judge real estate overheating by three ratios: price-to-rent; price-to-income; home price to non-housing monthly expense.

[Market risk] Are there many other locations that can be developed, causing an oversupply?

I tend to focus on a lot of theoretical risks. I can list more potential risks, but some are more likely than others. I feel the single most likely risk to hit you and me is currency risk. PHP is not a hard currency.

Based on these subjective perceptions, I decided last year (before U.S. relocation) that I will hold this MegaWorld condo for as long as I could, perhaps 5, 10 or 15 years.

–[2018] Some recent observations + minor notes

  • 腾飞 take-off in BGC/Cambodia valuations are less likely than in Chinese cities presumably because Chinese investors prefer first-tier metropolises like London, Toronto, Sydney etc. Mind share remains low for Manila and Phnom Penh.
  • PH economy feels not as strong as Korea or China (or India). Subconsciously (without any hard evidence) I tend to single out a few developing countries as strong and resilient. PH is not one of them.
  • For residential real estate, in the long term local demand is much more important than foreign “hot money”. I guess economists would agree with me. I feel the BGC location and price level creates reasonable local demand.
  • PH interest rate is high, so it’s best to minimize your mortgage amount.
  • One reason I feel unsure about PH economy is the PHP currency. Since I started in 2015, It has dropped more than 20% against SGD (32 to 39). I feel I have to wait longer for bigger appreciations to compensate for currency depreciation.

Nizam@developing country properties #Macq

Nizam on Philippines property investment:

  • (Nizam) Prop is long term investment. Wait 10Y and you are likely to see positive return.
  • (Nizam) Local Income is low and rising
  • (Nizam) Growing population
  • Young population -> growing workforce, more families

Obviously your property should be reasonably mid-market. Luxury properties may have a low correlation with economic growth.

English speaking workforce is a good sign that the country is open and connected and ready to do business with the world. It also shows the education system is effective because it takes a lot of effort to train enough English teachers.

Foreign investment in infrastructure is another sign of confidence. However, I feel foreign property buyer would represent hot money which could flee.

## reverse thinking: BridgeRetail risk scenarios

Update — In a “normal” economy (Africa, Brazil…), properties tend to appreciate. However, Exceptions define the norm and are worth investigating. I’m yet to focus on those exceptions.

My past experience tell me to suspect just about every info about an investment, unless guaranteed in writing:

  • 🙂 Jill Lim’s returns are written into contract, though the payment date is less certain.
  • 🙁 AIA __projected__ return turned out to be over optimistic. I guess TokyoMarine might be similar

“Reverse thinking” primarily means bearish, pessimistic, risk-averse, more than cautious. However, we can also challenge the traditional risk-averse views and think optimistically! Be paranoid and suspicious but not irrational. It’s inevitable  that  some important risk will be missed or underestimated.

  1. Country risk including political/economic risk
    1. reverse of foreign investment, esp. from Chinese companies and the hot money
    2. Cambodia may not have more upward potential than BGC has. In 50 years it may not catch up with BGC.
  2. less Chinese-like — so Cambodia may not take off and surpass even 25% of Beijing’s psf valuations
  3. mall success — The mall may not become popular. Location is less developed less mature than BGC. Insulated for 10Y but capital appreciation and credit risk are still affected.
  4. liquidity — When I need the cash I may have to sell at a very unfavorable price.
  5. restriction on foreign investors — Right now Cambodia has no restriction on foreign investors like other countries do, but may impose them.
  6. fund repatriation — Need to fly over. Better than Philippines but still not easy to use the money. Less accessible.
  7. Credit risk?
  8. precious? — There will be other shops set up competing for tenants.
  9. concentration risk — too much into properties
  10. capital appreciation — may be limited because my purchase price is possibly inflated by the rental guarantee.
  11. USD may weaken
  12. 70% return over 10Y? but time value of money?
  13. water point — may not have higher valuation than other units

After 10Y I may not need to sell.

my preferences as Cambodia property investor

  1. Preference — small price tag, to reduce my exposure, commitment, and outbound cash flow.
    1. Preference — slightly bigger exposure than the current unit, since I am optimistic about Phnom Penh
  2. Preference — lower psf price, i.e. buying cheap. This translates to lower risk, higher profit margin, higher flexibility (for sale, rent or mortgage).
  3. Preference — diversify rather than buying multiple units in the same building.
  4. Preference — shops rather than office or home. Shops are precious, unlikely to suffer from over-supply. Likely to generate higher rental yield (no direct benefit over 10Y) giving it higher valuation than non-shops. However, the shop units available are expensive by psf or by price tag, so I may have to let go.
  5. Preference — guaranteed rental. I can hopefully forget about the whole thing for 10Y, if I require no mortgage. Perhaps I need to seriously reconsider this preference.
  6. Preference — avoid mortgage with high interest and all the overheads. May need to be flexible with this preference.
  7. Preference (minor) — water point. Possibly faster capital appreciation.
  8. Preference (minor) — avoid changing SGD to USD despite my surplus SGD now, because USD is expensive at present.
  9. Preference (minor) — lower floor but Floor 3 vs 4 makes little difference.

There’s a 90% chance I would start earning USD salary in early 2017. Hopefully I could save up enough to pay at TOP time.

  • Choice —  Add an 14.99 unit, and hope to sell one of the two before TOP.
    • Need to plan for Scenario B:  unable to sell at a profit. A 140k new commitment would be too heavy and basically beyond my means. So my conservative answer is No. Or take mortgage.
  • Choice — The transfer unit is only slightly less heavy and comes with no discount, so my answer is a bigger NONO. Also the original price of $105,730 ($9800/sqm) was already overpriced relative to my unit.
  • Choice — Upgrade (i.e. sell #3-163 buy a 14.99 sqm) is a new proposition under consideration, but I lose the water point advantage. Who knows my water point unit might exceed the 14.99 sqm unit valuation in x years and I might regret. More importantly, my #3-163 unit was bought at a lower psf price of $8k/sqm, compared to $9380/sqm for the 14.99 sqm unit, so I feel it’s questionable to sell it at this early stage to buy a more expensive unit. I’d like to see some trend in appreciation (if any) before I decide.

Personal observations on Phnom Penh trip

Hi Susan, Some observations to share.

Mr Sok Ly is Cambodian Chinese ( one of 3 I met ), very experienced and willing to share. He shared his own experience in and observations on Phnom Penh property market. Completely Changed my view of Cambodia economy.

Good — I was lucky to get everything done at this Maybank branch, including Internet banking set-up and debit/atm card. I had to use SMS sent to my wife’s Singapore number. I tested Internet banking and debit/atm card. Maybank is expanding fast in Cambodia, showing confidence in the country. There are many other banks on the streets of Phnom Penh. I tend to believe banks generally choose safe and stable locations to open a branch.

Good — I heard that in the neighbourhood of The Bridge, studio rental yield could be up to 10% without considering taxes, repairs, commissions, vacant periods. A 20 sqm furnished studio apartment could fetch USD 500/month according to hearsay. In contrast my hotel charges USD 40/day ($32 for members) and Naga world is at least double that.

Good — many high rise buildings under construction, usually amid low rise buildings. I saw 10 of these at least. Clearly more activity than in Singapore or Manila but much less than the Fort area of Manila I invested in. The Fort is 5 to 20 years ahead of Phnom Penh BKK1. If I worry about The Fort or Singapore overpriced, then the same risk in Phnom Penh is possibly lower.

Good — many locals can speak good English. Some also speak Mandarin.  I feel the education system is producing a decent workforce.

Good — lots of foreign investment in the form of foreign banks, hotel chains, foreign brands. Many retail shops (perhaps 2% of all shops I saw) bearing a completely Chinese shop name. There are also big China companies esp. construction firms. Even more shops sport English shop names. I guess many foreign players are keen about Cambodia. Clearly the economy is opening up.

Basically there are 2 categories of foreigners — Chinese and Caucasian. There are restaurants, shops, residences, schools targeting these 2 groups. Many locals study English and Chinese at school. All professionals can speak English, otherwise they won’t be employed. Clearly the service/retail sector is opening up.

Good — most price tags seem to be available in USD. Every shop would accept USD payment. So our investment will preserve its value in USD, not subject to the weaker local currency risk. http://www.khmertimeskh.com/news/14511/strong-dollar-not-helpful-for-cambodia/ says dollar dominates the local currency in Cambodia.

Bad — traffic jam 4.30pm to 6pm on many segments of my journeys between hotel and airport. Took about an hour if on tuktuk.
(Tip — Avoid using cars. Tuktuk is more manoeuvrable due to smaller size. In a traffic jam that means a lot of time saved.)

Bad and Good — filthy streets in many central and popular parts of Phnom Penh. Most streets are too narrow to cope with current volume of traffic. In overcrowded Phnom Penh, think there is immense room for street infrastructure improvement, and upward potential in real estate valuation.

Good — Mobile network is reliable and very economical. I paid $2 for 1.4GB and some voice airtime. Cellcard is the brand.

Good — Water and electricity supplies are stable without blackout. I boiled the water and drank.

Good — Airport is clean and not overcrowded. Much better than Manila airport.

Good — Located next to the Bridge site, Toyoko Inn is very clean, quiet, with good service all by locals. Very positive impression. I liked the simple healthy breakfast too.

I always need to worry about legal environment, things like stability of regulations on foreign investors and real estate investment, protection of foreign investors and how to enforce basic contract terms. In some markets people delay payment indefinitely and tenants refuse to move out. Some even occupy a unit by force and take it over as his own property, or (more commonly) force owner to accept unfairly low prices. While Singapore has a strong and reliable legal environment, I feel Phnom Penh is not an anarchic market otherwise banks, hotels and shopping malls would be hard to operate, and few buyers would pay such high prices to buy a property. As the legal framework becomes more effective, market becomes more transparent, investor confidence grows, legal risks declines, valuation would start doubling every 5 years.