Category: retire]SG

minimum population required for an independent country

Posted on by tiger40490

The minimum could be half a million, but such a country would be overdependent on “externals”. The survival of the country would become more sustainable if the population approaches 10M. I can understand the PAP gov is hoping to grow Sg population beyond the current 5M.

Citizens making more babies — is better (than immigration) in terms of loyalty.

Skill-based immigration — is better in terms of gene improvement in the implicit global competition.

For a small national population (like 700,000), internal unity is extremely important. One element is racial harmony.

— unskilled national population .. Some subset of the national population would be low-skilled. If left to their devices, a portion of them could become a dead weight. Dead weight is heavier to a small nation than a big nation like Australia.

The government need to encourage them to upskill, get their children educated, and still provide jobs for them, so they don’t become dead weight — unemployed and reliant on welfare.

##2007 OFR per capita: SG=top2

Posted on by tiger40490

Note data below includes OFR + gold holdings of each central bank.

https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Economy/Reserves-of-foreign-exchange-and-gold-per-capita 2007 data shows

  • #1 SG at USD 35k/citizen
  • #2 HK at USD 22k/citizen

https://www.citypopulation.de/en/world/bymap/financialreserves/ has 2016 data.

Small countries like Sg and HK need big OFR to defend their currencies, and prevent imported inflation.

— per country .. (less important for this blogpost)

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true 2021 data shows total OFR

  • #1 Chn
  • #2 Japan
  • #4 USA
  • #5 India
  • #7 HK .. USD 497B
  • #10 Sg .. USD 425B

 

SG government offer=theBest #Aaron

Posted on by tiger40490

“Whenever there are competing products to the Singapore government’s offer, the government one is always the best and the most competitive”.

, my DBS financial adviros Aaron commented. Our conversation was about protective financial “schemes” most Singaporeans would need. We didn’t go through each item:

  • [c] long-term savings — CPF pays the highest interest on the market
  • [c] annuity
  • [c] medishield and eldershield
  • [c] universities — high quality, highest quality/cost ratio
  • [c] mortgage — HDB mortgage is often the most forgiving
  • [c] HDB fire insurance?
  • [c=citizens get the most benefit, followed by SPRs]
  • — some exceptions:
  • ??

Q: can we say the same about U.S.?

MYS ^ outskirt@SG

Posted on by tiger40490

Background 1; I used to focus on d2stadium, d2lib. Now only d2mrt is important. In my older days, even d2mrt would lose its significance to me. Remote parts of SG might be best. See also remote HDB locations.

Background 2: In my retirement planning, My default crbr is SGD 3k. Housing is a $0 net cost, assuming I live in Toa Payoh.

Sugg A: If I choose to live in a remote outskirt of SG (Choa Chu Kang, Yishun, Sengkang,,,), then housing can become a net profit domain, due to lease spread. Suppose this figure is 10% better than the default.

Sugg B: Malaysia retirement is a natural extension of outskirt SG. It should produce even better crbr and brbr, more than 10% better than default. Malaysia retirement remains an important backup option. If feasible, then it is likely to reduce my crbr (couple retirement burn rate) by 20%, partly due to rent, food and transport. In another blogpost, I estimated nutrition as 50% of crbr.

Remember, during retirement, brbr still matters esp if I descend to cash flow low ground.

%%CRBR]SG: improving over past10Y #R.xia

Posted on by tiger40490

see also

Based on a mail to my friend XR, on retirement burn rate in SG.

Q: Inflation hits everywhere including public transport and food, so how come my prospect of Singapore CRBR has improve over the last 10Y?

— expected wellness costs remain unchanged. Insurance cost would increase with age but no surprise.
— food:
I now eat more raw fruits and vegetables.

  • Most fruits are inexpensive and I avoid those rare fancy fruits.
  • The vegetables I eat raw are always cheaper than any cooked food.

There are many low-cost food options that I didn’t notice 10Y ago. For example,

  • frozen food is both healthy and cheaper than fresh.
  • Smoothies are now part of my daily meals and I prepare it at home, at very low cost.

My meals are smaller than 10Y ago.

When I go beyond fruits/raw-veg/smoothies and eat hot food, I eat mostly home cooked, compared to commercial food 10Y ago. I bring leftover of home cooking to office, so I seldom need to buy commercial food.

I have also cut down on fresh bakeries by 70-90%. Most of the bakeries I eat are bought my other people, so I may not know the cost.

If my average meal 10Y ago costs $3, it is now 70% like $2. Therefore, a fancy restaurant meal is now 30 times my average meal cost.

—  transport:
fare inflation is very easy to observe. It has not gone up as fast as I worried 10Y ago.

There are also senior citizen fares that I didn’t notice.

I guess the elephant in the room is car ownership. 10 years ago I often toyed with the possibility of owning a car when I have a bigger family. Most of my Singapore peers, younger or older, seem to drive nowadays. Unlike them, I don’t want a car in Singapore. Am now more comfortable using public transportation and bicycle, because I’m slowly mellowing up, growing more patient with my commutes.

2points@livelihood ] President’s address

Posted on by tiger40490

I think these and other points raised in the President’s address to new parliament are points to be explored in the upcoming parliament debates.

I feel the President’s address to a new parliament (once in a few years) usually sets out broad directions of focus over the next few months or years. Some of the policies would be adjusted within 12M, but the broad directions don’t change.

  1. jobs-for-citizens remain the top priority for the parliament. Three vulnerable groups: 1. low-income and 2. mature (struggling with age) workers, and 3. mid-career (i.e.被迫转行) workers with heavier financial commitments and families to support.
  2. find new ways to make a living, create jobs in new sectors.

She pointed out the current top threats: national protectionism; geopolitical rivalry; more volatility; disruption. Therefore, more Singaporeans may need more social safety net. She said Government will support young families to own their own homes, offer middle-aged Singaporeans more help to secure good jobs, and give them greater assurance that they will have enough resources to retire on. <– elements of the safety net and the nanny state

 

##SG medical inflation: Cushions #JL.Yuan

Posted on by tiger40490

See also latency无底洞 for an example of medical inflation as CPIx inflation.

— My multiple layers of financial protection against medical costs.

  • first layer — employee health insurance. Most Singapore employers cover major hospitalization + some outpatient
  • [u] 2nd layer — shield plans for hospitalization. My own shield plan has SGD 400k/year max payout, with some minor limitations. It costs me about SGD 2k to protect my entire family.

Main complaint from Zeng Sheng — annual deductible in shield plans. This was introduced by government to /deter/ mindless overconsumption of medical resources. For example,

– unnecessary tests is a common waste in Singapore and U.S., contributing to medical cost inflation.
– hospital ward have discharge criteria to stop insured patients overstaying

Both of these layers are reimbursement-based. Additionally, I also have a small insurance paying a small lump sum without needing a receipt:

  • [u] 3rd layer — early critical illness, covering cancers, heart + 30 other major diseases.

In my case, the two perceived likely killers are heart disease and cancer (but based on questionable evidence)

  • [u] 4th layer  — if I’m incapacitated (aging or chronically ill) and can’t live my daily life by myself, then I need full time outpatient nursing care — cost is not covered by hospitalization plans, so I bought an eldercare supplement that pays $5k/M
  • [u] 5th and last layer — any other hospitalization cost is payable using CPF Medisave account, either my own, my wife’s or my children’s. In contrast, the U.S. Medicare system doesn’t offer a personal pool of fund… too much /legwork/ before you get covered.
  • ZengSheng suggested PA insurance, but too complicated in my experience.

The above are the layers of protections for major medical. In addition, there are also low-cost outpatient options:

  1. [u] TCM (Traditional Chinese Medical) doctors are available everywhere in Singapore, and cheaper than GP doctors. My dad used them frequently in Singapore and China. So did I in NY, but only in Chinatown. When I retire in Singapore I will rely on TCM for many types of minor or chronic conditions.
  2. [u] Singapore polyclinics are subsidized community hospitals catering to low-income citizens. If and when I retired in Singapore, I will rely on polyclinics a lot more. In recent years, they charged me $6.80 per visit. This is not a charity. Doctors are fully certified, often graduates from NUS medical school.

[u = limited reliability, affordability or availability in the U.S. system]

— U.S. vs Singapore
Compared to the tiny red dot Singapore, U.S. is a more resourceful, rich and advanced country with economic of scale. Yet, paradoxically U.S. residents have reasons to worry about the long-term reliability of their healthcare “cushions”.

I think the U.S. (public+private) healthcare is unsustainable, fragile and afflicted with excessive waste and inefficiency. See why U.S.medical cost higher

HDB rental demand: decline over50Y #Zeng+Felicia

Posted on by tiger40490

— Felicia cautioned me .. HDB rental demand from foreigners could fluctuate in the long run. In the U.S. rental market, half the tenants are local Americans. Singapore rental market is more dependent on foreigners (high home ownership rate), so she sees more risk in my HDB rental model.

Why hold on so tight even after relocation to U.S.?
* low maintenance
* valuation volatility managed by PAP

When I explained to her why I won’t sell my HDB even while I’m settled in the U.S., I realized my deep bias and sky-high confidence in the PAP and SG economy. Over the long term, my confidence would be put to the test. Compared to China, U.S. and SEAsia, I still feel far more confident about SG HDB property. This is a heavy bias, not based on enough data. Once I live through and understand U.S. rental property risks, I might conclude that SG rental market is low maintenance but low yield and not-so-stable.

— Sheng.Zeng’s views:

  • The entire SG economy has traditionally relied on foreign workers. If you worry about HDB rental demand till 2064 (age 90), then you have bigger things to worry about, including SGD strength, CPI inflation, medical inflation, cpfLife… all of which are more impactful than HDB rental yield.
  • Q1: Why must you keep the HDB flat? Legacy? I now feel leasehold is not the best form.
  • Q2: What do you need the rental income for, exactly? If for a modest retirement [CRBR $3k] you don’t need this income, then no real worries about “decline”! If the decline represents a sub-optimal return, then there are many sub-optimal returns in my career.
  • Now I think 50/50 chance I would treasure this “extra” disposable income. In that case we can consider various ways to cash out. Lease buy-back or downgrade to a smaller home
  • Jolt: So taking a step back, the preoccupation with HDB rental yield is perhaps a self-imposed, /hallucinatory/ dependency. My retirement doesn’t depend on it .. Zeng’s wisdom.

livelihood: welfare state,nanny state,the big brother

Posted on by tiger40490

See also war-chest: le2 H.Yin

Extracted from a longer blogpost [21]livelihood[def2] x-class #S.Liu

— welfare state, nanny state and the big brother

If you live in a reasonably /functional/ economy, then half of your livelihood concerns are at least partially /provided/ by the state or an efficient, affordable (free) market “system”. Otherwise, you need private resources to fend for yourself or join private “clubs” that provide livelihood /support/ to paying members. Using the U.S. as an example,

  • nutrition + education + housing + transport have functional systems, but the healthcare “system” is notoriously unaffordable, forcing consumers to acquire expensive health insurance.
  • Some middle-class parents also perceive education provision as inadequate, and opt for private schools, but I doubt it is for livelihood reasons.
  • [[Nomadland]] makes a point that during the subprime period, many homes were actually unaffordable to the average American, but these subprime home buyers were enticed to buy beyond their means, and eventually forced into nomadland.

Singapore livelihood systems are as well-managed as Scandinavian systems or any other countries, until covid19 lock-down uncovered /fault lines/. Perhaps half the workers experienced a (temporary) job loss or income insecurity. I had a rare glimpse into the livelihood concerns among Singaporeans.

I’m fully aware that my livelihood concerns are a distant threat because in Singapore I’m able to enjoy a decent living at a reasonable cost-to-my-family because about half of the livelihood needs are supported by the nanny state. I recently reconnected with a China->Singapore->Canada immigrant friend, and she hinted that the Singapore government provides more (than the Canadian government), even though Singapore is not a welfare state.  Although most of my listed livelihood needs are taken care of, my life at 47 is still littered with negatives (anger, parenting pains, wellness decline, technology churn, age discrimination..). At this moment, it feels like I’m more motivated to maintain and protect the current carefree easy life, rather than seeking more happiness.

When we move to the U.S. our livelihood concerns would grow. By the Singapore standard, I feel most Americans are left to fend for themselves. I’m now building a war-chest ($200k – $400k) precisely for this reason.