Unlike Asia, U.S.home=expense !!investment #Brian@RTS

I need to unlearn the basic rules of property investment learned in Asia

  1. Except NYC, Queens (not long island), JC, and some parts of NJ, most other U.S. locations have no real (i,e. inflation adjusted) appreciation. Bayonne is one such location.
  2. due to the typical size, total cost of owning a home {tax … HOA … mtg interest … wood house repairs … lawn … heating…} is much higher in U.S. than in Asia, and often higher than renting.
  3. Bigger isn’t better. The bigger the house, the higher its running cost, but Americans are used to big houses.
  4. repair cost is much higher in US due to labor cost and wood structure. Many U.S. owners prefer DIY repair.
  5. In China and Singapore, you can leave a property vacant, but in U.S. pTax will force you to rent it or use it yourself.

Brian of RTS said owning a home is probably an expense rather than an asset. Brian’s view probably originated from the renter’s perspective. If there’s only small appreciation, then the additional outlay [1] of the home buyer compared to the renter basically contributes to the appreciation .. 羊毛出在羊身上. There’s no advantage to either option.

[1] including maintenance burden (none for the renter)

The renter has many advantages such as flexibility.

Brian countered every point I made about housing as an investment.

  • rental income — is the more predictable “return” in the U.S. context. Capital appreciation is erratic and may not happen in many U.S. states.
  • appreciation — in Asia and in NY region .. yes. The trend has been strong.
  • maintenance cost — is lower in Asia but in U.S., it eats into your rental income
  • pTax — much lower in many parts of Asia
  • population growth — In Asia and in NY region, there’s growth, but not so much in U.S.. I see this as a fundamental factor. BGC and Cambodia beats SG in this respect.

Brian concluded that many of these factors are location-specific.

getting a better mtg rate: 3items banks consider#LTV,amt,score

Sebastian shared with me

  1. credit score — has thresholds like 720, 740, 760, 800. Each threshold you cross on the way down, your rate will get a “hit” like additional 25 bps
  2. LTV ratio — has thresholds like 70%, 80%. If you (unfortunately) exceed a threshold, your rate will get a hit like 20 bps. This hit is permanent, even if you later manage to reduce your LTV.
  3. jumble loan — if quantum is below 425k or something like that, you get a hit. I will not avoid this. OCBC also charges higher LIR if quantum is below SGD 500k

— 30Y fixed rate .. https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage/mortgage-rates/fixed-versus-adjustable-rate/ explained the protection on borrowers during rate hikes. In other words, you lock in a low rate before you see any rate hike threat.

SG only has 3Y-fixed.

##higher runn`cost iWt pay`higher price #HOA+tax

Example: pTax. (HOA is similar.) If house xx is cheaper than yy  by 30k but pTax is $1000/y more, then would you subtract 5 yeas of extra tax from the price difference, and conclude xx is about 25k cheaper?

No.

Suppose there’s a home zz that’s 25k cheaper than yy (5k more expensive than xx) and same pTax as yy ($1k less than xx). zz would be better than xx even if we plan to sell our home in 5 years.

Reason — the 5k price difference is likely to be recovered when you resell.

In other words, the 5k extra running cost can’t contribute to the resale price.

  • –other running costs:
  • private high school cost if the local high school is not so good
  • higher heating cost due to electric
  • maintenance of yard, basement..
  • higher commute cost
  • parking cost if your home doesn’t provide one

Consider 5k additional sales price vs 5k additional commission.

##1st U.S.property: don’t rush

You may feel some of these items look so familiar and well-understood, but 10 years later, one of these risks turns out to be the biggest underestimated risk and a big concern if not a loss-maker. How much you have thought over or consulted friends is not a guarantee that you have really understood it.

  • risk: overconfident about rental demand
  • risk: underestimate of running cost
  • risk: risk@delinquent tenant
  • risk: overpaid, and devaluation. Ask Jack He.
  • risk: unexpected poor liquidity… hard to sell
  • risk: forced to move home due to school
  • risk: you find out later the neighborhood is dirty, has drugs …
  • risk: you find out later the daily commute is too long
  • risk: …. yet unknown

My sister once said “Our salary can only increase as we grow in our career.” Right there I saw the risk of over-optimism.

If done properly, property investment can yield substantial financial gains. So far, my property investments have appeared to be lucky. Those personal experiences have bolstered my self-confidence and faith in the property markets globally.

(Actually, the SEA investments have yet to prove themselves, and the BGC Uptown has suffered currency devaluation….)

However, as in my sister’s case, I’m over-optimistic and neglecting the risk of a drop.

It is prudent to rent in the target area for a while.

It’s imprudent to buy the propaganda about a town’s investments, momentum, special location …

It’s prudent to fully analyze our non-investment needs for a house. A property that we can use for our family life is a much safer investment than a pure investment property. For example if the school and commute profile is good, but the value drops, I’m less worried than a pure investment property.

It’s prudent to buy a small price tag. See prefer small investments,esp.property #sticky

+!wife’s due diligence, buy only tiny unit+ve cashflow

Wife can spot red flags.

Therefore, she is a critical approver and judge. If I were to buy without her input, it’s prudent to focus only on tiny units. See when unfamiliar,prefer tiny investments,like$200k property#sticky. That favors condos.

However, to reduce the risk of cash flow, I need to minimize running cost. That favors houses and esp. multi-family.

gas^oil^electric heating

  1. gas
  2. oil
  3. completely electric
  4. fireplace in living room only

These are the 3+1 main type of heating. My colleague Greg is very sure that electric is the most expensive and gas is the cheapest. His is oil based. About $2k/year of fuel cost. Maintenance is only $100/year unless broken.

Jack He said electric heating requires least maintenance.

I told Greg that for 5Y * 6M = 30M; if saving $300/month, I would save $9k over 5Y, a small amount compared to the home price. However, this 9k will not be recovered when you resell! See # higher runn`cost is worse than higher price tag

There are a few ways to categorize your heating system:

  • By fuel type: gas, oil, electricity, fireplace etc.
  • By how the heat is distributed: radiators, underfloor, forced air, stoves, etc. Gas and oil heating all require electricity for distribution