stats@U.S.renter households #covid19++

See also home ownership rate

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3csz8mz is a BBC short program, consistent with the statistics from other sources. If accurate, then these pictures make a backdrop for my family to be seen as /affluent/ immigrants when we arrive in the U.S.

==== based on https://www.aspeninstitute.org/blog-posts/the-covid-19-eviction-crisis-an-estimated-30-40-million-people-in-america-are-at-risk/ in Aug 2020
( For a Singapore perspective, https://www.mnd.gov.sg/newsroom/parliament-matters/q-as/view/written-answer-by-ministry-of-national-development-on-households-living-in-hdb-rental-flats has some Singapore stats. Due to my bias, I tend to perceive it as more accurate than the U.S. stats. )

.. an estimated 30–40 million people in America (presumably beyond citizens) could be at risk of eviction in the next several months. Many property owners, who lack the credit or financial ability to cover rental payment arrears, will struggle to pay their mortgages and pTaxes and maintain properties. The COVID-19 housing crisis has sharply increased the risk of foreclosure and bankruptcy, especially among small property owners.

Multiple studies have quantified the effect of COVID-19-related job loss and economic hardship on renters’ ability to pay rent during the pandemic. While methodologies differ, these analyses converge on a dire prediction: If conditions do not change, 29-43% of renter households could be at risk of eviction by the end of 2020.

30% of renters (in some unknown survey) indicate that they have borrowed cash or obtained a loan to make rental payments. Tenants are increasingly using credit cards to pay the rent.

Personally, I find these percentages too high to be realistic.

— rental unit stats
As of 2020, “mom and pop” landlords own 22.7 million out of 48.5 million rental units in the U.S. housing market. In addition, I think there exist additional “rentable” units out there, but not put on the rental market, perhaps because owner doesn’t like to deal with tenants.

As of 2020, 44% of single-family rental units have a mortgage or some similar debt. Percentage go up when you go beyond SFH. 65% of properties with 2 to 4 units and 61% of properties with 5 to 19 units have a mortgage.

https://www.huduser.gov/portal/pdredge/pdr-edge-frm-asst-sec-061118.html has lots of details.

— renter population stats
2020 Apr: NMHC and the National Apartment Association informed Congress in April that “more than 25 percent of the households that rent in the US may need help making payments” because of COVID-19 rental hardship, translating to nearly 11 million households and 25 million people.

More precisely, in 2020 there are 100.8 million people in 43.8 million “renter households”.

1 in 3 Americans (probably including foreigners) live as renters, according to https://www.nmhc.org/research-insight/quick-facts-figures/quick-facts-resident-demographics/renters-and-owners/

14 million, or 30% of, renter households include children. I think most renter households desire to buy their home when they have children. Many of these 14 million households are unable or unwilling to.

In Singapore, About 52,000 households currently live in HDB rental flats under government schemes.

— rental burden among total household expenses, even before covid19

 

household wealth: Black^White

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/10/26/jared-kushner-african-americans-must-want-to-be claims (from unknown sources)

12.1% of Black Americans are unemployed last month, compared to 7% of White Americans.

A typical Black American family held one-eighth the wealth of a White counterpart last year and made about 60 cents for every dollar earned by White families.

Black Americans are also less likely to hold stocks, which have experienced record gains even amid the pandemic this year. Just 6.7% of Black households held equities in 2019, compared to 18.6% of White households.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/12/08/the-black-white-wealth-gap-left-black-households-more-vulnerable/

Wealth = Asset – Debt… including rEstate, stocks etc. Could data points be negative? Not sure. The ability of positive wealth to buffer economic shocks can provide critical support to households during economic downturns.

Note 2019 figures in this report are more typical than any pandemic-stricken 2020 figures.

In 2019 the median white household held $188,200 in wealth — 7.8 times that of the typical Black household ($24,100)

In 2019, 17 percent of white households expected to receive an inheritance compared to just 6 percent of Black households. Actually, 30 percent of white households received an inheritance in 2019 at an average level of $195,500 compared to 10 percent of Black households at an average level of $100,000. (I would say average inheritance amount is less representative than median, but median is unavailable.)

In 2019, 73 percent of white families compared to 42 percent of Black families owned a home

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/02/27/examining-the-black-white-wealth-gap/

White average household wealth ($929,800), which is more influenced by very rich families and does not characterize the typical experience, is 6.7 times greater than Black household average wealth ($138,100).

For those households in the national top decile by income (3.6% Black, and 96.4% other races), the racial wealth gap is still quite large: median net worth (same as “wealth”, in this article) for white families in this income group is $1,789,300 versus $343,160 for Black families. I guess that in this decile, most “households” are actually families.

At the individual level, 65–74-year-olds accumulate to $302,500 in median white wealth and $46,890 in median Black wealth.

This article points out the racial differences in savings and education. I would say the East Asians, and Jewish are very good at it.

personal credit, financially responsible

The free availability of credit is similar to the freedom with sex, driving, firearm, gambling, leverage in futures trading (1997), drugs, alcohol and junk food. The availability is alluring, seductive and dangerous.

A young person exposed to these without adequate guidance (or a grown-up at any age) would inevitably shoot herself in the foot. That’s why I want to be with my son when he is studying in the U.S. Some Chinse families send their kids to the U.S. at age 16 !

In the U.S. every adult is assume to be a responsible person, until proven otherwise. Even though a large percentage of adults are not that responsible and will eventually shoot themselves in the foot, the system seems to exploit it rather than adopting a pre-emptive, more selective provision of access. It could be perceived as racial profiling.

You don’t need to demonstrate responsibility before you are given /access/. But this freedom is a /hazard/ (I didn’t say “risk”). Way too many people abuse that freedom either to damage their health, family (harmony), career, or harm other people. The latter is a bigger hazard to the overall “system”.

This blogpost is about responsible use of personal credit. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/pf/09/financial-responsibility.asp has a good summary — “To be financially responsible, you need to live within your means. And to live within your means, you must spend less than you make.” (There are many similar web pages, but this web page is not associated with any commercial organization, and hopefully more stable.)

Other countries are similar, but personal credit is more integrated into the U.S. system than other countries’ systems.

My reputation among BGC and Cambodia investors ….

— some stats on personal debt, based on https://www.ramseysolutions.com/debt/average-american-debt

Student loan is an investment in yourself. I feel mortgage is a reasonable use of personal credit, partly because the asset tends to appreciate, at least matching CPI. All other forms of credits tend to be “spending more than you make”, esp. auto loans.

  • ccard .. 45% of American households carry a cCard balance (meaning they don’t pay their credit cards down to zero each month, so they have credit card debt).6,7,8 Over 55 million households have this kind of debt.9,10 Their total credit card debt is $787b. $787b/55 million = $14k/household. Those 55 million households who have credit card balances pay 17% APR.
    • The Federal Reserve shares that 48% of American credit card users pay their bill in full every month.15 The other 52% are carrying debt and adding to  that $787 billion statistic.
  • student loan .. As of 2021, the average student loan borrower carries $39k debt (from student loan)
  • car loan .. 37% of American households have auto loan. Among this 37%, the average outstanding is $31k. Among all car loans, the average monthly installment is around $500 28.
  • mtg .. Americans with a mortgage pay a median monthly payment of $1,595.34 I guess each data point in the sample is a mortgage, not a household. Many households carry multiple mortgages.
    • mortgage total outstanding is $10.44 trillion, spread over 51.57 mortgages, owed by 51.5 million households. 10.44T / 51.57M = $202k
  • HELOC (home equity line of credit) total outstanding debt is $349b, owed by 4.74 million HELOC households. 349b / 4.74M = $74k 29,30

household wealth^income #American sociology

 


I don’t think I want to spend time analyzing the difference between household wealth and household income, but some people need to do that, such as economics and sociology researchers, and policy makers.

  • There are two important quadrants: HighIncome_LowWealth, and LowIncome_HighWealth.
  • Some people are embarrassed to talk about (not necessarily personal) income, and prefer wealth instead.
  • Some people are embarrassed to talk about (not necessarily personal) wealth and prefer income instead.
  • ^^ These individuals may (subconsciously) prefer to steer the conversation.

The traditional Chinese tend to save and invest (Earn/Save/Invest) and become fairly wealthy.

— data quality .. Wealth (net asset) statistics are often based on surveys (including questionnaires). However, home equity, brokerage portfolios, 401k, SSA account.. are reported to government.

Income statistics are mostly based on tax filing and far more accurate.

There are unreported incomes and unreported assets. I won’t speculate which of the two is a bigger problem to the statistician.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/02/27/examining-the-black-white-wealth-gap/ says

Wealth confers benefits that go beyond those that come with family income. [I think it has to be substantial wealth]

Wealth is a safety net that keeps a life from being /derailed/ by temporary setbacks and the loss of income. This safety net allows people to take career risks knowing that they have a buffer when success is not immediately achieved.

I used to dismiss wealth, even a USD 1M wealth.. perhaps due to peer influence. Now I think in a downturn, even a modest reserve could be more important than income. Income could stop any time. Income is less reliable than wealth overall.

Family wealth allows people (especially young adults who have recently entered the labor force) to access housing in safe neighborhoods with good schools, thereby enhancing the prospects of their own children. [Surprised to see that housing is a key factor in the authors’ opinion.]

Wealth affords people opportunities to be entrepreneurs and inventors.

And the income from wealth is taxed at much lower rates than income from work, which means that wealth begets more wealth.

— savings habit .. is the crucial link between income-level and wealth-level.

  • with above-median income, some savings habit (splurge control) would build some wealth, in the form of a reserve.
  • with below-median income, building the same reserve would require discipline.
  • If your household income is above 3 times the median (like USD 200k), then it’s easy to accumulate the same wealth but without savings habit that wealth is likely depleted and never grows.

— my situation? I feel my household income is (lower) middle-class among my cohort in the tristate but my household wealth falls into a (slightly but definitely) higher percentile among this same cohort. The explanation … is found in multiple blogposts. I will summarize again:

  • Earn/Save/Invest .. wife and I are superior at Save and decent with Invest
  • zero debt
  • inheritance? $0 now

U.S.midclass income [def] #UK

  • Criteria 1: Pew Research defines middle-income Americans as those whose annual household income is two-thirds to double the national median (adjusted for regional cost of living and household size). For a family of three, that ranges from $40k to $120k for 2018 incomes.
  • Criteria 2: According to 2019 numbers, the range for a mid-middle-class family of three was an income of $53,413 to $106,826 (twice). The same three-person family needed an income between $106,827 and $373,894 to be considered upper-middle-class.

Note the Pew research calculator shows that even with $180k pre-tax income I’m still in the middle class not the upper class. This is consistent with my self-assessment.

https://singlemotherguide.com/single-mother-statistics/ shows median income for single mothers (45k) vs couples (94k). This site is presumably accurate on single-mothers.

2022 UK figure: lower-midclass income is GBP [18-25k]/Y, up to USD 31k

pay tax prep fee with tax refund

Q: who (and why) would choose this payment option? Note taxPrepFee is typically around $100.
%%A: perhaps extremely cash-poor people. I assume every grown-up with a tax id has a bank account with a free credit/debit card.

How to Pay Your Tax Prep Fees With Your Federal Refund

Refund Transfer is an easy and convenient way to file your tax return without having to pay for your tax preparation fees today. If you choose this optional product, a Refund Account will be set up for you at MetaBank®, N.A. to receive your federal refund from the IRS. Once your refund is received and all services are complete, your fees and other amounts you authorize are paid from your Refund Account. You can direct any remaining funds to an H&R Block Emerald Prepaid Mastercard® or to your existing checking or savings account. You can also receive notifications when your refund is received and your funds are disbursed to you.

Refund Transfer costs an additional $39, which will be paid from your Refund Account.

39%Americans have enough savings for $1k emergency

As of 2019, the typical Black or Hispanic family has up to $2,000 in liquid savings, the typical White family has more than four times that amount.


https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/financial-security-0118/  is a 2018 article, quoted in CNBC. ( https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/19/56percent-of-americans-cant-cover-a-1000-emergency-expense-with-savings.html is a 2022 update) Bankrate.com conducts numerous surveys every year. I decide to believe in this survey. The question posed:

Q: How would you deal with a major expected expense, such as $1000 for an emergency room visit or car repair? Each respondent can only choose one option below

  • 39% would pay the whole bill from savings…. Personally, I think some of the other 61% may have $1k savings but somehow would not fork out this amount, so they chose other options
  • 19% would pay with a credit card … (high interest) and finance the balance over time
  • 12% would borrow from family or friends
  • 5% would use a personal loan.
  • 13% would count on reducing spending from other parts of their budget. I believe this option means “use some combination of the above, without increasing aggregate debt level”
  • 6% would resort to something else and 6% simply don’t know or refused

Lower wage earners, those making less than $30,000 a year, were twice as likely to use some form of borrowing than savings, while households making more than $50,000 were more apt to use cash.

This result dovetails with a recent Federal Reserve report that found 44 percent of Americans couldn’t cover a $400 emergency expense out of their pocket.

19% of Americans also report that they have $0 set aside to cover an unexpected financial emergency, according to another survey.

— an exemplary saver featured at the end of the article:
Timothy Wiedman had around $25,000 in his emergency fund in September 2016 when he slipped on wet grass in poor visibility, and ended up in the hospital. The recently retired Doane University associate professor shelled out around $1,700. He was able to cover the hospital bills out of savings rather easily. Amassing such a large cache (25k) is no easy feat, especially as health care and college costs rise dramatically.

Personally, I will be targeting a similar amount of liquid cash reserve.

— Now I have more appreciation that large portions of the American families can’t afford the expensive colleges, even though colleges provide financial aid to ensure every admitted student can afford it. Many of the struggling families would not be able to support their kids adequately during the 12 years before college

Luxury education, big homes are priced out of reach for more than half the population.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/12/08/the-black-white-wealth-gap-left-black-households-more-vulnerable/

Average value of liquid assets among white households was $8,100 in 2019 compared to $1,500 for Black households. (Does the negative data points go into the “average”?)

Furthermore, 72 percent of white households say they could get $3,000 from family or friends compared to 41 percent of Black households.

U.S.med bx price=$400/head #deductible

UHC is one of the biggest “networks”. Most doctors (except very specialized) are IN (in-network), or they don’t get many patients.

Make sure you present your insurance card. If clinic still assigns you an OON doctor, it’s their mistake. They have to deal with it. You shouldn’t be penalized or bear the cost.

–with employer

  • CSDoctor pays $5k/Y for a family of 3. He said total was $6k+20k from employer = 26k/Y premium
  • DeepakCM pays $250/M for a family of 3
  • Jack.Zhang (family of 4) said after MS layoff he needed to pay $25k-$30k/Y via COBRA. XR agreed to my estimate of “$500+/person/month”
  • As MS employee, Jack.Z paid $1k+/M and enjoys 50% subsidy by MS. XR said similar at Barclays, but Citi and JPM are worse.

–without employer:

  • Shanyou pays $1500/month for a family of four. In 2020, he said $1600/M, but with high deductibles.
  • in 2020, DeepakCM pays $1200/M to cover a family of 3. He said one friend pays $2200/M BCBS to cover a family of four. Another friend pays $1650/M UHC for a family of four.
  • XR said $400/person is typical
  • XR said there’s a cheaper one for kids, though some doctors don’t accept it.