k_FLI2
— SGD inflation.. affects cpfLife, FLI150, FLI250, FWD300
The further out you receive the $4472 annual payout, the less stuff it buys. Payout is not rising with inflation. A common issue with all bonds + annuities, which deserve a place in every portfolio. In 30 years, SGD may not be so strong, and imported inflation may become less well-controlled. Singapore is a small, open economy, tightly connected to the regional and global economy, so the local government has a bigger impact on this economy than the governments of bigger countries. Therefore, long-term inflation risk depends critically on government policies and performance… regime risk.
A true blue annuity product will feature a lengthy accumulation phase. It enhances payout rate (like 6% DYOC), to combat long-term inflation. On the flip side, the accumulation phase entails a prolonged prison term or slow breakeven.
Long-term inflation (beyond 30Y) is harder to predict. See my letter to Aaron in https://tanbinvest.dreamhosters.com/15331/ready-lifeincome-aaron/. So any payout received 50Y later has a questionable present value i.e. my family “may live in a very different world so would they appreciate a pocket money of $1000/Y or $1400/Y or whatever?”
FLI2 is perceived by many as 90% a short-term bond, and 10% a true annuity. In the “10% scenario”, prevailing IR drops to 3%, then this annuity becomes cash-cow for some time up to 5Y.
==== FLI150
FLI2 = [Singlife Flexi Life Income II ]
- $50,066 x 3 = $150,197 total premium payable in Sep | Mar24 | Mar25.
- Annual payout: Mar 2026 to start receiving $4,472/Y until my passing. 2.98% of total premium
- Upfront rebate: 3k+$3,129 by end of 2023, representing a 4%+ discount.
Annual payout consists of guaranteed 2.2% of SAss + projected 3% of SAss. “Once declared, considered guaranteed” because you receive “projected” amount in real cash. If actual payout drops below 2.98%, or if tBill yield stays above 3%, you can liquidate/surrender/cash out
Q: (sharp question) How does this deal compare with earlier annuity products like PLIP{Markus;ReadyLifeIncome{Aaron ?
- Now in mid 2023 I have more spare cash
- Now in mid 2023 I am not so keen about U.S. stocks like 300k ptf
- #1 difference — liquidity i.e.
quick breakeven in terms of surrender value
Liquidity .. Total premium amount becomes guaranteed from Mar 2026 onwards. Until then, surrender value was described to be $0. Therefore, _prison_term_ is 2.5Y from Sep23 to Mar26
Scenario 1: liquidate after first payout. Total “profit” is 6129+4472 coming out of $150,197 over 2.5Y