Tag: t_bargain

disposable consumables can b cheaper even4long-term #shaver

Posted on by tiger40490

Compared the two options below.

I think the manufacturing cost is 100 times different but durability is not 100 times different.

— SGD 10+ Naitonal battery-powered shaver can last a year

— cheapest disposable 10-pack for SGD 1.05. Each shaver can last about 1->2-3 weeks. (I shave about 100 times a year.) So 25 disposables/Y i.e. below $3/Y

Tip: tooth brush can double its durability.

Durability declines more gradually, whereas the electric shaver would stop working completely.

Also, easy to carry.

Light weight. No battery.

I often need one in office (lasting 2->3-5 months)

 

 

##filtered list@divStocks: 3criteria

Posted on by tiger40490

See also

In the 1-share phase, I prefer 1) known-to-me 3) penny stocks, featuring 2) high yield like T, XOM/BP, GM, IRM,

  • category B: Blue-chip companies tend to be more transparent, less likely to collapse. Given the tcost, I prefer blue-chip stock like T:us as I’m more likely to buy big amount of T:US than IRM. I can have a dedicate blog page for T, not a REIT stock
    • No time to read current news in-depth, given I only buy one share each.
  • category P: penny stocks involve smaller dollar amount and require less due diligence tcost and less distraction after buying

Note this old criteria disqualify most tech stocks, China stocks, finance stocks,,,

After I feel confident receiving 5% current income without serious loss to principal, I would plan to invest more.

  1. MO — 6% / $51
  2. SKT — REIT 7% / $22 considered safe by [1] but most analysts are saying SELL-now
  3. BRG — REIT 6% / $11
  4. APLE — REIT 7% / $17 hotels
  5. Verizon — Mithun recommends
  6. –bought:
  7. ABBV
  8. UNIT — distressed 10+% / $9
  9. ORC — REIT: 13% / $7
  10. LYG — blue-chip 4%/$3
  11. AGNC — REIT: 12%/ $18, recommended 3 times
  12. EPD — energy 7% / $28 considered very safe by [1]. 96% rating
  13. PSEC — 11%/$7 but with history of dividend cuts
  14. VER — REIT 7% / $8
  15. MAIN — 6%/ $39 considered safe by [1]
  16. PPL — Utilities 6% / $32 considered very safe by [1]
  17. BIP — Utilities 5% / $41 considered safe by [1]. Recommended multiple times
  18. BEP — Utilities 5% / $30 considered safe by [1]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4191121-4-safe-blue-chips-5-percent-dividend-yields says

As of mid 2018, the average dividend yield in the S&P 500 is under 2%. As a result, investment income is hard to find today for investors who desire current income, such as retirees. In order to find higher dividend yields in today’s market, it seems that investors have to take outsized risks on stocks with sky-high yields, but also questionable fundamentals.  At times, a high dividend yield is a red flag, and a signal that the fundamentals are deteriorating. A stock with a very high dividend yield but eroding financials could result in a dividend cut.

High yield + sound fundamentals (such as AT&T) sounds like a “bargain” — higher current income (not higher appreciation potential), lower risk than average. It’s crucial to keep in mind our priority in the retirement mode — current income is more important to me than appreciation.

 

U.S.home price cycle #Wallace

Posted on by tiger40490

Wallace is convinced that U.S. property appreciation cycle is visible and partially predictable. He also recognized China big cities follow no such cycle.

Wallace perceives buyer demand is largely determined by afford-ability of deposit + installment. Installment burden is controlled by mtg size and mtg rate.

To see the trend for a given property, look at the 2011-2013 trough and the 2007 peak.

Wallace feels mtg rate is rising in 2019, so valuation is very likely to drop across the country, not only in JC/Hoboken.

I feel Wallace is influenced by the Jersey City appreciations. I feel Bayonne is slightly different.

I feel there are bargains at any any time, but I agree that in a down turn there are more and better bargains. So I am grateful to Wallace.

Q: depreciation hurting current income?
A: I told Wallace that at my age, current income is more important than appreciation. If I’m unlucky to buy at a peak and don’t see any appreciation in the next N years, I will focus on current income. My core belief — rental income seldom drops even in a down market, and Wallace didn’t object. I believe rental income is affected Only by location + other factors listed in 43R model top 2 factors.

Same applies to my BGC property.

Foreclosed: 84 W 3rd Bayonne #rental property

Posted on by tiger40490
  • street cleanliness — safe and clean, tree-lined, close to park
  • 2FH with 6 beds, 2352 sqft
  • 🙂 There is a 3rd floor with rooms as shown on google street view
  • 🙂 built in 1930, relatively new
  • 🙂 basement partially finished
  • selling by lender for 400k. You can offer a low price then negotiate with lender
  • Bank loan possible even for foreclosed. Process can take 40 days, not so bad
  • https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Bayonne-NJ/pmf,pf_pt/apartment_duplex_type/38877669_zpid/21685_rid/3-_beds/0-400000_price/0-1589_mp/globalrelevanceex_sort/40.824201,-74.044676,40.517061,-74.168273_rect/12_zm/
  • https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/bayonne/84-w-3rd-st-bayonne-nj-07002–1005526909

MYS healthcare for expat retirees

Posted on by tiger40490

If we retire in Malaysia, I feel we should seriously consider relying on Malaysia public and private healthcare.

Obviously, we can always fly (or take train) back to Singapore for reliable healthcare, with citizen subsidies. We don’t have to if the Malaysian services are good enough in most cases. For a chronic condition, we don’t prefer frequent trips.

emergency  —  I believe overseas emergency medical will be covered by Medishield 🙂

bargain — The value/cost ratio of Malaysia healthcare might be a bargain for expats. https://internationalliving.com/the-best-places-to-retire/ 2019 article gave an illustration.

— Time magazine singled out healthcare as Malaysia’s top attraction for expat retirees.

— https://www.retirepedia.com/healthcare-in-malaysia.html is all about healthcare for expat retirees.

Public healthcare is available to expats in Malaysia and is very inexpensive. Nevertheless, many expats prefer private care because treatment is faster, (no long waiting times) and more efficient.

Free health care, other than emergency treatment, is restricted to Malaysian citizens. As a foreign resident, you’ll have to either pay yourself, or purchase local or international health insurance. Local insurance is much cheaper.

The best hospitals in the country are in Kuala Lumpur, which has also become a world class medical tourism destination.

If quick access to the best healthcare in Malaysia is important for you, then you should consider living in or close to Kuala Lumpur. Your next best choice would be other major cities like George Town, Shah Alam or Johor Bahru. There you’ll find many private clinics and hospitals with well trained specialists.

In a Malaysian private hospital, if you share your room with three other patients, you’ll pay as low as RM95 (USD 24).

389 Washington St^43R

Posted on by tiger40490

As of Sep 2019 Jersey City high-rise 2BR rent is at least 3700/M. Chris Ma felt single family 2-kids living in this part of JC is tough.

As of Jun 2018, 2BR is worth mostly likely $1M or higher.

  • +$3700 rent income … below 4% gross rental yield only, but partly due to the 1.67% low tax
  • -$1400 tax if you buy now. (Chris Ma bought a 2BR in 389 Washington S in 2008 so his tax is $1100 only.)
  • -$900 HOA
  • —–
  • = $1400 net income ~ 1.4% rental yield excluding mortgage maintenance and vacancy

Note this location is for the top-rated PS16 school district, so price is higher.

In June 2018, a 756 sqf 1BR is asking $700k. The original price was $500k in 2008..

In contrast, 43 Rockledge hotel model monthly rent is 4 times Chris’s case. You can’t divide a $1M unit into 20 rooms and rent out for $750 each

[18] 20 unbelievable bargains

Posted on by tiger40490

Lookalike? Unlike ##G5 personal winn`bets: long-term impact@livelihood, this blogpost is not about big bets.

  • [u=unbelievable. I would not have entertained such a suggestion a few years earlier; unbelievable bargain; too good to be true.]
    • Defying my common-sense, becuase our intuition is completely unreliable in these cases.
    • These are often unexpected successes, and deserve in-depth analysis
  • [v= “undervalued” in terms of my subconscious valuation or market valuation, when I bought]
  • [h= top 5 heavy hitter]
  • —
  • [hh v] I “bought”SG early, when it was undervalued
  • — education
  • [h v] UChicago — the Nobel prize count lent prestige on my degree. My $cost and tcost was very high, but in 2013 the prestige was undervalued.
  • [h vv] Singapore universities — charge a fraction of the U.S. private universities but offer comparable quality.
  • — ccost (calorie cost)
  • [u] rice pudding
  • nonfat ice cream
  • [u] washed and heated baby carrot — tasty like starchy foods but very low calorie and high fiber
  • my lentils — whole box is 600 cal, extremely filling, whereas 100 gram of peanuts (1/4 of my 小金生 packet) has the same calories. Why the hell do I worry about my lentils?
  • — $cost (prices)
  • [uv] Malaysia (retirement) — offers decent healthcare and rental homes at a fraction of the U.S. costs. You would think quality must be questionable but reality could be completely different.
  • yoga classes — are SGD30 each or SGD 155/M. In the U.S. it’s $32×12+50 below USD36/M
  • fruits in Chinatown — sell at a fraction of supermarket price… You would think rotten, but mostly good.
  • —salaries
  • [u] According to my chat with the Macquarie support chap, a bright engineering fresh graduate like him in Singapore earns SGD3500/M or SGD 40k/Y but USD 120K pretax in NY
  • a 8Y+ programmer earns SGD 70k/Y but USD 150k pretax in NY
  • java job pays 20% higher than perl jobs and offer far more opportunities.
  • [u] Front office trading IT jobs pay higher than PWM jobs, sometimes less stress and many more opportunities. Unthinkable  in 2007.
  • — workload and stress
  • Qz job — pays no higher than MS job but 5 times higher stress partly due to perm job and limited job market in SG.
  • GS job — pays about half the 95G, Barc or citi jobs, but 3 times higher stress
  • — investments
  • [u] Some properties don’t appreciate much, with GRY 4%, but my BridgeRetail has guaranteed NRY of 7%. Too good to be true.
  • [h] My Blk 177 — property yields current rental income every year until 2010 and then gave a windfall.
  • [h] CPF-life — a real bargain compared to other annuities.

REIT^property^E12 #bargain+debt #w1r2

Posted on by tiger40490

Buying an individual property provides much higher return than buying a comparable REIT. The key — bargain!

Say you have 300k to invest, either in a property or in a simple property-holding REIT without any value enhancement.

  • if you are inexperienced, I think the REIT is safer due to liquidity, diversification etc. You may earn $15k/Y or 5% in dividend.
  • if you are experienced, you can spot bargains and get good rental yield and/or appreciation. You could earn 24k/Y or 8% in NRY + 200K~600k capital gain. You won’t get the same from the REIT. In fact the REIT company boss is another experienced investor. She spots bargains, which generate outsize returns, but she won’t pass on all the profits to you in the form of REIT dividends. She would keep most of the profit as her own profit !

In fact, this is similar to Macquarie MIRA fund (or AsiaProperties or a hedge fund) spotting bargains and passing on a small part of the profit to investors. A decent hedge fund typically passes on a good portion to investors to make 6% return in a reasonable year. Clearly the fund itself makes a lot more profit.

Bargain picking is high-risk-high-return game These fund managers risk OPM (optionally with some house money at, say, 22% of the total) but cut a disproportionate share of the return, much higher than the 22%. In other words, investors take on all the risk, but receive part of the return.

Debt — is another Fundamental difference. Debt is frequently used by REIT operators, as a double-edge sword. Though it can enhance return (possibly the dividend yield), I generally avoid debts in my own property investments because the mortgage interest can erode my rental income.

The above probably describes the Singapore REITs. Now let’s look at the more advanced REITs, highly “visible” in the U.S. I can see this process in Energy12, AsiaProperties and MIRA (Macqurie Infrastructure and Real Asset).  These deal makers can create huge value on the real estate bargain assets they buy. They enhance the assets and generate large profits, but again, the few individuals (deal makers) involved invariably keep a disproportionate share of the profit.

— In all REITs, the apportionment of profit includes “sweat equity”.
Say deal makers put in $12M, and REIT investors put in $88M. Out of the gross profit, deal maker first takes 50% as compensation. The remaining “net profit” is split 12:88 based on investment amount or outstanding shares. Effectively, the sweat equity is equivalent to $100M of capital.

REIT investors receive 88% of the net profits i.e. 44% of gross profit, which could translate to a 10.3% annualized return, beating the benchmark.

Suppose you as a REIT investor complains about the 50/50 split. Deal maker could say “If investors don’t rely on my bargain hunting skill, then they get none of this return. Investors could choose not to invest with me. It was investors’ choice .. take it or leave it. If you think you can get bargains yourself, then you can run your own REIT.”

## 2 big items cheaper]U.S.than SG

Posted on by tiger40490
  1. car and gas, but not taxi
  2. landed properties in all states except tristate and CA
  3. private apartment, but less clear considering pTax, HOA etc

Everything else are small ticket items

  • gym membership
  • yoga
  • low-end laptop
  • branded designer labels
  • — foods
  • milk
  • washed raw veg
  • chia seed
  • avocado

##nonwork income: rarely has capital appreciation except prop

Posted on by tiger40490

I know only a few reliable passive income generators. Capital appreciation + reliable and high dividend yield without active management …. a rare combination. My BridgeRetail and #4-116 are considered bargains.

  • All other properties can become vacant or rundown. All need active management
  • As Avichal pointed out, a bit of inactive management could enhance the return.
  • Most high dividend funds have no consistent and high dividend like HY bond funds
  • Unlike the property market investments, annuity products are lifetime commitments. Once you put in the money you can’t easily take out any amount without loss of the lifetime benefits.
  • As discussed with Raymond, airbnb model requires a lot of active management and legwork. Not passive income 🙁
Income Years Nett rate (not annualized credit? active mgmt? capital appreciation liquidity inflation protect
10Y 7% listed developer none. very Rare 🙂 big potential 🙂 can sell good Cambodia shops
for life:) 8-9% after 10Y wait trusted to take care of my family 🙂 none erosion 🙁 worst worst – super
long term		 CPF Life
for life:) 7-10% big insurer none erosion 🙁 worst worst Allianz income protector
5-20Y -1% to 7% 🙁 factored into price 🙂 none could drop:( excellent mixed HY bond fund
many no guarantee 5-6% gross no issue needed reliable 🙁 can sell good HDB flat
many no guarantee 5~7% no issue needed 🙁 big potential 🙂 can cell good BGC