Tag: t_upto9

pseudo-DCA ] %%system: lack`discipline

Posted on by tiger40490

See also my Dec 2021 mail to Aaron/Claris

My recreational system already uses DCA principle — “invest small amounts regularly throughout the year”.

Main benefit of my DCA — mistakes are minor and detectable.

— deviation from the standard DCA robot

  • in an overpriced market, I have fewer stocks to consider investing. I tend to notice the recent hype and stand aside
  • I tend to pick new names in each small purchase, rather than buying the same stock over and over.
  • DCA down the curve .. (the main deviation) See below

However, how do you tell “overpriced”?

— down the curve .. My system is supposed to reduce purchases during bull markets, building up a buffer, and increase purchases during decline, depleting the buffer. However, in reality, we often feel hesitant and try to wait for further declines.

Jolt: when we see an initial recovery, we don’t know if it is a temporary recovery, so we are usually hesitant

Jolt: when we see a zigzag decline then a recovery, we don’t know if the decline would continue, so we are hesitant

Jolt: when we see an up trend of 30% from the bottom, we often feel it’s too late to go in

— up the curve .. When SP500 rises after some decline, it could be still overpriced, or it could be bottoming out.. How do you tell? See overvalued@@ CDY,P/E,NGRY

bccy: cool, hip, trendy

Posted on by tiger40490

“Enthusiasm for crypto from Hollywood celebrities and top athletes reached a fever pitch in 2021. On social media, during interviews and even in music videos, they portrayed virtual currency as a world with its own hip culture and philosophy – one that was more inclusive than traditional finance and that involved the chance to make loads of money…. Unlike clothes or snacks or many other products hawked by celebrities, the crypto market is volatile and rife with scams.”

A University of Chicago research has found that younger, lower-income investors tend to be overly optimistic about crypto’s trajectory.

j4 alternative ETF to SPY

Posted on by tiger40490

Background: I already have many (invisible) positions closely tracking the SP500.

In speed up: riskCapital4U.S.eq 20k #Aaron I explained the need(?? or unwanted peer pressure) to speed up my risk capital build-up. If I have not decided to allocate to a sector, but want to increase my exposure to the broad U.S. market as a whole,  then there are a few alternatives to the SPY ETF.

  • 80% chance I may realize that an “alternative” is very similar to SPY, not a real alternative. The buying decision was therefore misguided. The financial impact is likely small, so the tcost incurred was really for learning.
  • 20% chance that I may find something worthwhile in these alternative ETFs
  • tiny risk that the returns on these ETFs are really inferior to SPY. I take it as a market risk and learning lesson.

##[20] increase current_payout4family needs: random ideas

Posted on by tiger40490
  • #1) buy T:us or other high-div stocks using Robinhood
  • save up for U.S. rental property, to increase current income in the U.S.
  • more rental properties in SEAsia
  • keep AsiaProperties SGD10k after the pandemic

Current income (not windfall) is what i need now that helps lessen the everyday strain. I actually don’t mind some level of active mgmt i.e. legwork.

next HDB: biggest financial decision #risks

Posted on by tiger40490

One of the 20 punches on my punch-card. The amount is bigger than all Blk177, #1173, Beijing home, all my Cambodia investments [1]

  • [1] However, I know the location, the legal system very well.
  • [1] However, career longevity has bigger impact on family livelihood
  • [1] However, health and family unity have even bigger impact on family livelihood.

— Biggest risks are

  1. overpaying .. (a misstep) overestimate of appreciation + yield,
  2. missing a good opportunity to satisfy wife’s needs at a reasonable price.
  3. neglecting hidden issues

— rental yield decline .. pretty much inevitable whenever we go upsize. Rental increase is slower than resale price. If this decline is a misstep, then just about any upsize would be a misstep.

— depreciation .. (short term or long-term) is a well-accepted risk. I have always accepted the risk in PAP government including SGD, cpfLife, Singtel stock… So when I imagine HDB depreciation after I buy, I basically feel “Fine. That was my own judgement, evaluation and assessment.”

— overpaying .. With #1173, I actually overpaid compared to subsequent price level. This is basically another aspect of the depreciation risk described earlier.

Q: Did I feel the pain of misstep? Not really.
A: (jolt) in 2012, I had a good change of home overall. Even though #1173 was overpaid, it was dwarfed by my Blk177 good sale.

When I eventually sell, I guess my profit could be $30k vs $100k profit of a neighbor who bought lower.

My rental yield is currently, say, 4%, vs 5% of that enviable neighbor.

prolonged benchtime !! far-fetched

Posted on by tiger40490

Scenario planning ..

Need to recognize the non-zero risk and cashflow impact of a protracted benchtime, surviving on savings + nonwork income.

  • Deepak – about a year of benchtime
  • Jack Zhang during covid19
  • Raymond during covid19
  • B. Pinsky (Shangyou is better… 2.5 months on bench)

Compared to them, Wall St Java developers enjoy a better demand, but how about the older guys? You should never be too confident.

 

double-entry: #1 principle@error-trac`]exp-recon

Posted on by tiger40490

Basic principle — for each non-trivial amount on any bank/ccard/FsmCashAcct history, the amount must hit double-entry — AA) reflected in current snapshot BB) show up visibly in the outgoing column (or the incoming column)

  • Eg: a dcard charge is reflected in AA not BB because it’s invisible in transaction history
  • Eg: a ccard rebate hits AA not BB
  • Eg: mistake in the Begin snapshot. A spend was mistakenly (excluded or) included in the current period so it may show up in BB but not AA
  • A celebrated eg: banknote spend ] monthly exp-recon

[19]ffree discussions with2friends: @end@c++US

Posted on by tiger40490

Before I left U.S. in 2019, I had separate email discussions with SY and JL. To my surprise, they each replied (14 Aug 2019 and 28 Aug 2019).  Their brief answers are truthful, revealing and worth reading.

Without going into details of those discussions, I feel basically alone with respect to my ffree “state of mind”, as described in another blogpost, financial freedom=state@mind.

When living with family, I foresee a decline in this state of mind….

What would grandpa say?