high-flyer burn rate: heavy burden #Mullins

Looking at Rahul, P.Mullins, my sister etc — Capable professionals, but their level of minimum burn rate creates a long-term (if not permanent) burden on their shoulders. I think one of them might say that if no chocie, then he would be able to cope with a barebones burn rate like $3k/M, but I am not so sure.

I think the value-investing seminar target audience also feel a similiar burden — How the hell can I sustain my BASIC $2k/head family lifestyle if I don’t want to work so hard for 30Y and then sustain the same lifestyle beyond retirement? Their problem is really the burn rate.

In terms of burn rate, I’m blessed with a frugal wife, SG citizenship ..

residential prop: a few pros and cons

  • 🙂 faster to sell because more investors are familiar with the asset class
  • 🙂 faster appreciation due to hot money, _but_ less stable
  • 🙁 More of a commodity, not as precious as prime location shop units.
  • 🙁 NRY lower than commercial (at the same popularity/scarcity level), despite what marketers say.
  • 🙁 higher risk of buying overpriced

2BR^1BR rental properties #BGC++

— rental:

Contrary to some claims, the same price two studios are faster to rent out than a 2BR. Now I feel it’s “much faster”.

  • Across many countries and cities, vast majority of tenants need privacy above all (such as location, price,,,). The more private units, the more GRY. Remember 43R.
  • More affordable to more tenants including students, solo professionals and young couples without kids.

Perhaps 2BR has better windfall potential but windfall takes a long time, and at this stage of my life I care more about current income, as long as NAV is not sacrificed.

The current income should come from “free cash flow”.

— resale: I have the same bias. See Cambodia residential properties for China investors #XR

43R: location is key #decent tenants

I feel location is the real deciding factor of rental demand. I think I really need to stay close to the rail stations. Deepak CM said the same. Location could mean 10% vs 50% vacancy rate.

Dropping your asking price may not work. Bargain hunter tenants might be fine people, but there’s a higher probability of problem people.

The low-rent tenants often don’t have a car. I guess 10 minutes walk is the max. Most won’t use a bike.

Streets need to be relatively clean and safe.

Close to park? not important to most tenants.

cashflow pressure: rent iHt buy#graph{Rahul

https://www.zillow.com/rent-vs-buy-calculator/ is a nice graph Rahul showed me. It shows inflation !

2.5k can rent a nice small home in a reasonable location outside the luxury /belt/ like JC waterfront. With sublet I could take up a 3k house and collect 1k rental.

In contrast, if buying a 700k home, total burn rate could be 5k. Basically, high mtg and tax rate is applied on a big home value.

  • 3k mtg, depending on rate and amt
  • 1.5k tax. Bayonne tax is higher, but I won’t buy anything 700k in Bayonne.
  • maintenance costs like heating, cleaning,,,

## friends cast doubt@43R NGRY level

I told my friends that 43R generates 15k/M gross rental. All of them seem skeptical. I think they are used to 2FH PGRY of 10%. Their doubts include

  • feasibility of dividing into 10 or 11 rooms. I will look for a house with that many rooms.
  • legality
  • maintenance duty to support 22 tenants
  • vacancy rate? Nobody raised that.

[18]typical U.S.retiree income #SSA++

 


https://www.newretirement.com/retirement/average-retirement-income/ has some data

— XianHua said a U.S. retiree in his situation

  • receives $1400/M from SSA, although Bob Wells (cheapRVliving.com) gave real-life data — many of his fellow retirees receive $600-$1000/M from SSA.
  • pays about $1500/M pTax if owning a home
  • pays about $1000/M health insurance, much needed in old age

Sg offers a more affordable retirement, in terms of Melvin3.

== 2020 data:
The Pension Rights Center reports that: “Half of all Americans age 65 or older have total incomes of less than $25k a year”, presumably including SSA + 401k + pension + work.
Are $0 data points included? Probably Yes.

Note the Census shows HRI (“household retirement income”), without explaining. If a household has 1 retiree and 1 working, then I believe HRI would only include the retiree.

— SSN: cost of living adjustment raised the average monthly SSA (Social Security payment) for retired workers to $1,503 in 2020 from $1,479 in 2019. I assume this average ignores those receiving $0.

== 2019 data:
In 2019, 2020 and 2021, the Pension Rights Center estimated that that most older adults have little in savings [including 401k, excluding pension, SSA]. Only 66 percent receive income from financial assets. Half of them (i.e. 33 percent of total) receive less than $1,754 a Year (not “month”)

The median savings among baby boomers is $152,000 per person.

— Social security payout, in comparison
“Average monthly Social Security payment for retired workers is $1,461 in 2019.” I assume this ignores those invisible retirees receiving $0.

Median is unspecified, most likely lower than Mean. I assume a large number of monthly amounts are small amounts.

250k gift4kid: branded uni tuition^tiny property #H.Y

I like YH’s question.. practical question — “When my son goes to college, Should I cash out the RegoPark studio to help him pay for an Ivy-league degree, or let him keep the property?”

YH feels the cash-out route is not great ROI. YH felt that with a prestigious degree his son may be able to earn a bit higher, but those kids from lesser-known colleges also have some opportunities, possibly fewer. The house, if not sold, can help relieve the housing pain when he starts working in the tri-state region.

The house may appreciate over 4 years.

https://tanbinvest.dreamhosters.com/2019/01/07/spending-250k-on-top-college-but-your-kids-arent-more-success-than-his-colleagues/ is a blog I wrote on a related topic.

sqf: most U.S.homes are oversize 4me

99% of U.S. houses and most 2-3 BR condos are oversize but fairly acceptable.

I saw a Tudor style brick house for sale $540k, close to 100 Hillside Ave. 1825 sqft for a couple with a baby. 3 bed rooms, each big enough for a queen bed. There’s a big dining room + living room…. Completely unnecessary for me.

The “extra” space requires

  1. bigger price tag
  2. extra renovation cost
  3. extra tax every month
  4. extra heating cost
  5. extra on-going maintenance cost and effort

Why not save the $200k (or whatever) and use it on

  • investments
  • enrichment programs,
  • more family reunions