Tag: T_blindFOMO22

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blind_FOMO[def]: TJ.Lin@Chn young techie

Posted on by tiger40490

A powerful concept and pattern, in search of a shorter name.. like blind_FOMO, as a specific form of breakaway.

Opening example: For many big-ticket products, a novice would often buy the market leading branded version (paying a premium), because he doesn’t know his own needs. FOMO is a suitable descriptor.

— the Main example of this blogpost: TianJue is the first to point this out, when I shared with him the paradox of China’s bachelor tech professionals. See latency无底洞

As soon as the bachelor enrolls at a Beijing/Shanghai college, he would face the same decision that some of his cohort has already decided on — “Will I end up working in 一线 city like 北上广深 ?”. If yes, then the home purchase looks inevitable and requires a whole-family effort starting from Year 1. .. Wrong priority.

I asked TJ “if the price is out of reach for my family, then what about renting?” I don’t remember his response, but perhaps 1 in 3 bachelors could realize “…beyond my capacity” and put away the decision. For the remainder, buying is nearly infeasible but question is “Will I regret if I don’t buy, and rent or work in a Tier2 city?” The more peers make the early decision to buy, the more peer pressure on the helpless bachelor to follow the herd instinct. It’s interesting how semi-consciously we filter our peer group and exclude bulk of the local population.

TJ also pointed out that dating game puts huge pressure on the bachelor. In my younger days, I had to work hard over decades to improve my /status/ in the mating competition. When I first had kids, I didn’t believe the opinions of those likes WQ.Luo. I was driven to improve housing, education resources… for my kids, engaging in the arms race with millions of fellow parents. Similarly, the inflation fear was a widespread brainwash. Medical cost inflation fear was driven by my own parents… All of these “struggles” are taught to every young men as part of Chinese enculturation. As a consequence, I felt perhaps $3M would be needed.

Those around me who gave up on ffree were seen as _quitters_. These are the individuals who decided to keep working till retirement age, buy a house of same size as the peers, save as much as the peers, save up for college funding as the peers… all without a ffree goal. They are seen as not trying hard enough.  Clearly my choices are a breakaway from these “quitters”.

TJ then concluded that by my age, I have figured out my real needs and real priorities. I guess that’s a SelfKnowledgeAdvantage

— eg: the ivy-league fixation + SDXQ fixation among the Chinese middle-class in U.S.
Many immigrants seem to assume that schools rated below 8 are unacceptable… Fear of unknown. They follow their peers [i.e. fellow immigrants] and reject these mainstream choices.

Kyle and I discussed our “insider insight“. With this insight, I hope we can live free of the huge financial burden/obligation. In such a case, I would count myself lucky to understand my own needs.

When I told my father that my kids don’t have to enter any college, he said he would be proud of my son if he gets into Community colleges or Polytechnics. Heroic words of wisdom.

— eg: retirement planning .. Many younger Singaporeans seem unsure how much they would need in retirement. Some follow the marketing propaganda, dismiss the CPF-life amount as inadequate, and take on the huge burden of “SGD 1M nest egg”.

TJ pointed out that by my age, I know my own needs.

— eg: safe European cars .. I put a high value on their extra safety level,  exactly because I don’t really understand the risk. TJ.Lin said the probability of preventable harm from dangerous accident is actually very very low.

— eg: if unsure, buy the dominant brand. In the 1990’s you won’t be at fault if you buy IBM, even if it’s not the best choice in hindsight.
My first smartphone was a Samsung… not “better” than the cheaper Vivo, Oppo, Huawei phones I have used.

SDXQ or waterfront loc ≅ Orchard mansions #w1r2

Posted on by tiger40490

For branded college see luxury(+special)Edu: unaffordable to 中产华裔.

The SDXQ or waterfront locations (branded colleges too) always cost a lot though I won’t give a figure. These are exclusive locations, the desires/aspirations of the upper-middle-class. It might be a slight exaggeration to regard these aspirations as the lifestyle of the Orchard mansion owners, Singapore’s upper-class. Clearly I don’t qualify for this exclub !

  • mainstream attitude .. I feel many of my U.S. peers are not much better off than me (despite higher post-tax income) but have the same aspirations as the upper middle class. Therefore, they don’t have my Fuller wealth and carefree ezlife
  • my attitude .. I feel lower middle-class. I feel well-off and Fuller-wealthy precisely because I live within my means and don’t aim at unaffordable luxuries. I still feel I can’t afford the Singapore private properties. Neither can I afford the U.S. waterfront or SDXQ properties.

— waterfront .. I never envied those with private properties in Orchard, Bugis, Marine Parade, Holland Village,,, Why do I envy those living in Newport or NY west side … waterfront luxury locations? Paradox!

( However, Bayonne locations near the big park is actually luxury in terms of well-maintained street.)

— SDXQ homes .. U.S. SDXQ (rated 8 – 10) homes are also comparable to Orchard mansions. However, the middle-class immigrants tend to follow the herd instinct almost blindly, and believe that SDXQ rated 7 or lower is utterly unacceptable.

I had a long-held reservation against private property in Singapore. I feel valuation is driven up by the affluent investors from SEA, China, Hongkong, India, and other countries. Similarly in the U.S. school districts, the middle class push up the valuation.

##hot assets2avoid esp.4 Lower-midClass

Posted on by tiger40490

I see a pattern — if you are lower-middle class like me, but compete with the upper-middle class to acquire these hot, favorite, trophy or popular assets, you would feel the strain eventually. Wrong priority.

Possibly a strategic misstep if you can’t easily liquidate it or if you spend a sizeable amount maintaining a white elephant.

Rule_1: I avoid all of these assets.
Rule_2: always check overvaluation relative to alternatives, and check value/price ratio

[w=white elephant, often high maintenance trophy]

— eg: hot growth stocks with near-zero CDY or very high P/E
— [w] eg: big, luxury cars .. are for the rich
— eg: leading cities .. See mansion^commercial rEstate demand]leading cities #defy`gravity. Beside the Beijing home, all my properties fall outside the category. My HDB is not a private property 🙂
[w] NYC co-op has very high maintenance cost according to Chris Ma.

— [w] eg: top U.S. SDXQ homes, usually SFH with slightly higher psf valuation, but much bigger, therefore a white elephant. GRY suffers as a result.

Items below are not tradable “assets” per se, but still related to the same theme

— eg: medical school .. is for the rich, similar to luxury cars
— [w] eg: expensive branded colleges.  See luxury(+special)Edu: unaffordable to 中产华裔
UChicago is my 1st hand experience, and a breach of my Rule_1
— eg: international competition trophies .. takes lots of effort but often don’t mean much to your career.

## BestCountry@@ objectively proud@your local living condition

Posted on by tiger40490

 

A teenager is often told that her country (or city) is one of the best to live in the world. In reality, for every country, its nationals have some advantages and disadvantages, but some of the cited advantages are made up by the media or propaganda. They include things like better weather, wider food choices, police presence, strong military force, diversity in population, young population, rich culture/history. Today I want to focus on the factors widely agreed among the rich countries. By these standards, the Scandinavian nations, Japan, Australia .. probably come on top.

Q: how relevant is this blogpost to where2retire?
A: I think most if not all of the factors relevant to a teenager are relevant to a retiree, too, fundamentally.

  • [i=infrastructure]
  • [f=financial]
  • — half ranked by noteworthiness. The obvious ones are ranked lower. I avoid high-level, vague items
  • inclusive workplaces and schools .. relatively free of discrimination [prejudice]
  • [f] low national debt burden .. lower taxes going to debt servicing
  • security in food, water, energy supply
  • efficient legal system .. accessible [affordable] to the public
  • weather .. not extreme or disastrous like heat waves, hurricanes, flooding
  • [i] flood control .. esp. in tropical locations
  • [i] clean streets .. with some landscaping
  • .. adequate green spaces .. esp. relevant in cities
  • walkable, bike-friendly … not car-first !
  • plenty of exercise facilities .. swimming, stadium, jogging paths…
  • [i] electricity and internet connectivity .. reliable (weather proof), fast, affordable,
  • [i] public transport .. reliable, extensive (re Bayonne), frequent, cost-efficient [affordable]. Grandma often points out the MRT lifts
  • [f] stable currency, inflation
  • [f] low GST, low property tax, low utility bills
  • [i] accessibility for those in need
  • universal and inclusive education for 9+ years. Special needs education, leaving no one behind.
  • [i] pollution control .. air, water, noise
  • [i] public healthcare .. accessible, affordable
  • [i] congestion control .. often comes with high /tariff/ on gas or car ownership
  • street safety .. crime rate,
  • PPP-adjusted median household income after tax?

— More importantly, here are examples of Not “widely agreed” advantages. Many of them are based on FOMO[F] or exclub[e]

  • [e] home to world-class universities/companies? Perhaps parents would envy another country with many world-class colleges… But look at European nations, Japan,
  • [F] a country with pockets of tech innovation? But the locals (as compared to foreign talents) may not be able to benefit. Perhaps young citizens would lament their country’s relatively backward technology but.. Hey, technology is a race! Inevitably, only a small number of national can be leaders. Many developed (and widely envied) nations are technology adopters rather than innovators, in most technology domains.
  • [F] infrastructure .. Perhaps many (including outside observers) would not feel lucky/enviable about limited infrastructure esp. if less connected… But I think some remote island states (NZ, Japan) can be quite prosperous and comfortable. On the other hand, healthcare infrastructure (including sanitation) is a key livelihood feature.
  • natural resources? Look at Japan, Korea, Macau,
  • population density .. there are advantages to dense or sparse locations
  • athletic ranking .. (adjusted by population)

—  Q (related): What nationality is enviable esp. in terms of healthy longevity?

Whenever we compare different passports and identify the handful of lucky nationalities, each of us tends to focus on a specific aspect. There are a wide range of factors. Here I want to explore in and around an important area i.e. healthy longevity.

If a nationality is associated with 1) longevity and 2) “adequate” livelihood, then it would be a subject of envy by most standards.

 

[21]Gabbar: no right or wrong@@

Posted on by tiger40490

 

See also

In my Dec 2021 year-end dinner with 3 colleagues, once again I noticed my breakaway from middle-class, in terms of priorities, blindFOMO

They talked about condo (1.2M was what they discussed), big mtg (like 900k), maid, private internaitonal schools as if there is no choice (They are foreigner in SG. Later I brought up college funding and SDXQ.) They also talked about car ownership… in a well-connected Singapore!

Varun reiterated that there’s no right or wrong, but I do have an opinion. I think some of those items are the wrong priorities for me (and probably for them too), because I have better self-knowledge. I think in old age some of these individuals would regret when they re-evaluate their past decisions in total honesty. Other eg of personal priority where there is no right or wrong:

  • To them, short commute is a good-to-have but low priority.
  • To them, healthy longevity is presumably low priority, and pleasure is high priority. Well, look at Grandpa’s experience after 85.
  • To them, my diet struggle, hazards, availability … are clearly a low priority. I feel some of their waistlines represent their growing income.
  • To many of my peers in their 30s and 40s, more time with kids is a priority, but for me, I don’t want too much time or too little time with kids. I know what I want.

I don’t want to spend on commercially popularized priorities like car, luxury housing, top SDXQ, branded colleges,,,

I’m willing to spend on my personal priorities such as family reunion trips, low-stress/low-pay jobs (like Mvea, Citi…) I think the issue of maid is similar.

— creep vs savings .. I think for some of these colleagues, their savings rate might be decent. However, their burn rate is probably higher than mine due to 1)housing 2)car 3)maid. I remember one Sonic guy used cheap credit to finance private school fees. Even without kids, some of them spend more than I do, perhaps spending 80% of salary.

Their lifestyle creep is probably higher than mine, influenced by peer pressure. Actually I don’t have enough insight. My lifestyle creep is non-trivial.

— high ground .. I feel they won’t reach my level of cashflow high ground any time soon.
I think their burn rate would be 80% of income including mtg P+I.
Their FullerWealth would be much low than mine.

Mtg .. They basically assume that a 30Y loan is “fine”, even though it would impose an extremely stringent obligation to pay $2k-3k/M non-stop.  Well, that’s Not “fine” to me, not a minor thing to me.

I enjoy a high brbr and FullerWealth (my priorities), but to them, those priorities may look like saving money for nothing.

def1[Lifestyle Creep] #R.Teo

Posted on by tiger40490

 

My colleague Bertrand said (in some context that I can’t recall) — spending money is easier in SG than in other countries.  Mall shopping is very popular in Singapore, more so than in other cities. When a family’s disposable income grows, family members break traditional guidelines of simple life

eg: “family car” -> 2 cars per family still not enough
eg: “sharing a bedroom between 2 kids” -> one bed room per kid
eg: “Aircon in bedrooms only” -> a/c in living room and kitchen

Lifestyle creep infects through a shared sense of rising living standard and rising income. However, I guess a minority of infected individuals do not experience rising income.

— disambiguation .. Lifestyle creep is slowly progressive, often recurring. In contrast, big ticket items [rEstate, branded college, or even cars] are usually not part of lifestyle creep.  This bpost tries to focus on a few common themes:

  • exclub, FOMO, comparing with the neighbours
  • semi-conscious “creep”
  • FTIL

— eg: Punggol experience .. In my Oct 2020 meet-up with Raymond in Waterway Point mall, I pointed at the rows of colorful lit-up shops all around me, and declared that virtually all of the fancy “things” on sale were unnecessary luxuries, if a family follows disciplined spending and a savings habit. Such a family of four (like my family or Raymond’s) can survive  easily in Singapore, thanks to the the essential livelihood supports (medical, housing, education, inflation..) provided by government.

However, if you always try to match the lifestyle of other people (exclub), then even 10 times more income would find their way out and you would still feel “not enough”… latency endless arms race

Raymond and I have similar spending habits, but not sure about the wives. Raymond said women “need” to spend more than guys, presumably in clothing, personal care.
— eg: Funan experience (On 2020 Christmas) .. looking at the fancy new shops in the renovated Funan mall (and the earlier Suntec mall), again I realized none of the thousands of commercial offerings is necessary for a healthy, fulfilling life.

Eg: without the learning programs, children can still grow well. Same can be said of MindChamps offering.
Eg: As to the relatively healthy but fancy foods, without any of them, you still can have a good diet. In fact, by my standard, those fancy foods are still too oily and sweet. Otherwise they won’t be popular.

— eg@FTIL: earliest example of unnecessary “finer things in life”… When I taste a fancy food, I find the taste special, but is it worth 5 times of the price of a regular meal like 杂菜饭 (mixed veg rice) ? Perhaps it’s worth 50% more. I have felt this way for 40 years, since my teenage years.

Basic-healthy standard for nutrition might be too hard for some people, but I believe that with some variety, you can enjoy tasty food within the same budget. MixedVegRice used to be the best value in Singapore, either in coffee shops or food courts. I used to pick 2 veg or 1 veg 1 meat, for below $3. Nowadays I eat out only once a month or so. I now pick 3 or 4 items for $4->5-6. I used to flinch at such price figures for mixedVegRice. Now I don’t even notice my higher spend. The only explanation I have is higher disposable income and lifestyle creep.

Is if for nutrition? No. It’s only for pleasure [variety]

Alcohol, golf, luxury cars (relative to modest cars) … are other finer things in life.

— eg@FTIL: yoga and fitness classes? I do need help (esp. motivation) to sustain a yoga practice. Underlying issue is my personal limitation. Therefore, the commercial offering is needed i.e. without the external help my life would be poorer.

If you really hate creep, then look out for the many free classes.

— eg@semiconscious: hearing the Taobao discussion in the C-epa team.. I feel spare-cash-rich people have a tendency to spend on small fancy goods of acceptable quality. Imagine you bring home 10k/M and saves 90%. Would you feel an urge to spend a bit more on those small “fancy” items like accessories?

An honest review may show that those small spends add up to, say $2k – $8k a month. Over 250M (20Y), it adds up to $500k ~ $2000k

— Work hard play hard .. Perhaps Rahul, my sis and many of the high achievers would say that, but I am suspicious of the play-hard part. It often means spend hard, party hard. Inevitably, there’s a powerful exclub and FOMO element, which used some implicit benchmark. Behind these benchmarks there’s nothing but vanity.
— CpfLife ERS amount won’t be enough.
— which level of ffree? well above Level 5 ffree
— 80% of the local median income for a comparable family size is my reference burn rate.
— exclub, FOMO

I never buy iPhone #branded uni

Posted on by tiger40490

iPhone is a poster boy of a class of products that I always say NoThanks. Similarly

  • latest laptops? I buy the reliable low-end models. The one luxury feature for me is touch-screen! A less luxury feature is low-weight.
  • branded pianos
  • fancy big homes with low rental yield
  • luxury college degree? Instead of NoThanks, I did pay for one at UChicago and learnt my lesson.
    • I will limit the topic of college, as it has the tendency to dominate this blogpost 喧宾夺主.
  • luxury cars .. a different category. Safety and quality !

I think the FIRE community of the U.S. would endorse my NoThanks.

— value/price ratio:
A common feature among these cases is the existence of an alternative offer at a fraction of the price.

I define my notion of quality and value (usually including durability and reliability) and I always find these “iPhones” extremely un-competitive in terms of value/price ratio.

By far the biggest case is luxury college. I have many blogposts about the quality question.

— show-off
another common feature — the manufacturers of iPhones spend huge amount of the marketing dollars creating an impression of superior quality, innovative features and sometimes exclub status. Many buyers really fall for it and buy these things to show off.

With the college choice, show-off is a key motivation, but things are more nuanced. I have blogged about the nuances.

As I age, I see more and more similarities between branded college and branded clothing, branded phone etc. The “consumer” here is the parent. East Asian parents spend very large amount of disposable income on these status items.

— FOMO: With iPhone, I feel my wife and other people are often driven by FOMO.

Many parents fear that an unbranded college means their kids are handed a second-best “ticket”. They fear their kids will pay a price in adulthood.

luxury(+special) Edu: unaffordable to 中产华裔

Posted on by tiger40490

opening eg: In the U.S. context, medical school is for the upper class, as Tao.Chen of RTS told me.

In the U.S. branded college is comparable to top MBA schools or Joseph Schooling’s expensive training.

Similarly, top schools (in all countries), top colleges, private tuition, enrichment programs… can be considered as luxuries that lower middle class (like me) can’t afford easily.

I would have to struggle, sacrifice, endure a lot to afford them…

My barebones ffree is insufficient for this level of luxury. Before college phase, I think luxury education could be 70% of the annual family burn rate. This luxury alone can derail my carefree life.

Similar experience — the prospect of a 700k home (with pTax + mortgage) became a threat to my cashflow carefree /position/, until I devised the lease-spread idea/plan.

XR and YH have kids attending special-needs schools. My son is smart, but to protect him from bad influences, I may need to consider expensive school districts or charter schools. These choices can increase my burn rate by 40%. However, there’s a risk —

Some of the additional spending on education may have /unimpressive/ ROI, and waste my limited resources. This would be similar to SG government spending past reserve on the wrong covid19 rescue areas — wasting limited reserve.

Therefore, before I commit to spending the money, I need to weigh the cost and benefits.

  • top school districts cost me hugely in commute, pTaxes etc
  • private schools have high fees but may not help my son grow better

 

designerLabel≠2x better Quality

Posted on by tiger40490

Many Asian parents are not affluent enough to choose luxury designer labels but they act differently when it comes to college selection.

These middle-class parents don’t have 5 million net worth that enable them to afford a 250k “designer label” college education where the quality thereof is only marginally higher. However, the stereotypical Asian middle-class parent often chooses to spend like the upper class on education. They go for the most luxury they can afford.

“Prestige” is Kyle’s term. I call it “branded” as it’s similar to any /luxury designer label/. Designer labels marketing message usually includes something like “Yes we are priced well above the second tiers, but quality is what you get.”

Some Asian parents seem to consider branded college as 5x the quality of a 2nd tier college. Is that true? At a branded university, quality of education is often superior but there’s no objective numerical multiplier like “2 times better”. Spent 250k on top college but your kid outshone by colleagues is my most elaborate illustration of the quality paradox.

Even though as an insider I know the quality of education is similar between NUS, UChicago or other colleges where my colleagues studied, I feel a deep fear that sending my kids to the smaller brand could damage their future.

  1. transportation tools like Cars are the #1 best example of prestige translating to quality, due to heavy wear-n-tear.
  2. Building materials also have substantial differences in quality.
  3. furniture has quality difference.

Pattern: the more physical/mechanical something feels, the more I believe in its quality. For learning, 达者为师. Best books are freely available.

Best teachers are often at lesser-known colleges. So if a lesser-known college employs the real leading experts in the field such as Doug Lea, Stoustrup, John Hull or the 古典文学专家 in 北师大, then parents get a better bargain in those colleges, in terms of access to teacher.

I feel my friend CSY is trapped in a rabbit hole, unable to take a step back.