Tag: T_carefree

breakaway[def] from Upper-midClass #w1r2

Posted on by tiger40490

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Q: Why is it crucial for me to break away from the Chinese upper-middle-class mainstream in the U.S. ?
A: My asset and esp. combined salary is lower-middle-class. My carefree ezlife demands that I live well within (hopefully below) my means.
A: if I follow herd instinct, and surrender to that peer pressure,

  • my Melvin3 total burden would balloon to $7-8k, so my total burn rate could exceed 10k/M. I think this burn rate is top 2% of U.S. households.
  • I would lose my cash-flow high ground (brbr, Fuller wealth, FCF,,) My CPF + rental income + Beijing inheritance … all become 杯水車薪.
  • I would lose my steadfast focus on the long-term important/non-urgent goals of healthy longevity, career longevity, family harmony, ..
  • I would long for an additional USD 2M in net asset (endless greed). These Chinese middle-class families typically have a net asset of $1M+ but have a thin brbr. They don’t seem to live within their means.
  • I would be pressured to maintaining my salary and worry about job loss. I would envy those fake role models [interview rock stars, OC-effective guys, ]
  • Such a self-created baggage is simply too heavy. Something’s gotta give.

— t_breakAway tag is not about my own “unique or original” solutions.

It’s more about questioning,  challenging, rejecting and letting go of the Chinese middle-class immigrant mentality.

It’s related to t_mellow,

[21]become as WellOff as]SG@@ #war-chest

Posted on by tiger40490

See also [17]U.S.burn rate now n after #Gerald

“Well off” is a vague term. “Carefree ezlife” is slightly less vague.  This blogpost is focused on their intersection.

In several blogposts, I have highlighted the high maintenance when living in U.S. , which disrupts my carefree ezlife. I have also highlighted the additional costs such as Melvin3.

Q: is there any hope of feeling well-off as I now feel in Singapore?
A: yes, though much smaller than in SG.

First, the key ingredients of my well-off life in Singapore:

  1. brbr
  2. job (and salary) security
  3. no strain due to long commute.. Such a strain makes me feel impoverished
  4. very cheap medbx
  5. no mtg, negligible pTax
  6. no car needed
  7. wife can afford to stay home and take care of kids’ studies etc
  8. ? no private tuition at the moment .. a small factor
  9. ? rental income ?  no effect on my life now

Q: how could I realistically become well-off in the U.S. ?
A: would take a lot of effort, accumulation, from now

  • #1) We need to accept (tough!) a more minimalist lifestyle than my cohort and Aim at a burn rate 10% lower. Remember they have much higher household income. Resist FOMO and lifestyle creep, just like in Singapore.
  • initially no car. Then buy a modest (but safe) car and use it less than U.S. families.
  • initially buy medbx for wife+kids. Later can include me on a cheap medbx with high deductible + coinsurance
  • reduce restaurant visits
  • work hard and slowly on the 43R model, rather than raising my salary. If I remain in-demand, then my salary would be reasonable. Marginal gain in salary requires extraordinary marginal effort.
  • rEstate is one domain where U.S. offers advantages over SG, and may present the best route to ffree
  • avoid overseas vacations. U.S. + Canada + Mexico offer plenty of choices.
  • one of the new strategies is the war chest .. section below

— war chest .. build up a much bigger war chest than I need in Singapore. This is the definition of war chest. This is also a battery that can store excess solar energy. These “batteries” are also war chests, but not all financial.

Analog: covid19 required Singapore government to massively strengthen its pandemic capacity. SG gov past reserve is a classic war chest

 

t_utopia^t_carefree^ ffree^ezlife #horizon

Posted on by tiger40490

A link to this blogpost: ffree^carefree^cashflowH/L ground

In my blogs, here are 4 related terms, ranked by durability

  1. carefree .. the current (half-year period) stress /profile/, largely based on ffree
  2. .. (not a tag) ezlife .. the broader lifestyle over a 3Y horizon, largely dependent on carefree
  3. T_utopia .. black-hat [critical, cautious, often negative] examination of my state of carefree, peaceful satisfaction/bliss, over a 3Y horizon. As a tag, this is more selective than T_carefree. Even broader than ezlife. Warning: “Utopia” has extra connotations.. See ##homegrown English terms #rikigai
  4. ffree .. strictly financial. “Temporary ffree”? Never

— In terms of cash flow

  • carefree ezlife .. very short-term. Ezlife can come to a quick end.
  • Cash flow high/low ground .. slightly less short-term, based on brbr math, Fuller wealth
  • ffree .. long-horizon like 20Y, dominated by big shocks and hazards like black^white swans.

Therefore, real ffree is a high bar … see NAV 一辈子花不完@@ 3 factors .

preClearance +comparable missteps@job

Posted on by tiger40490

I decided to group this gz-theme blogpost with related blogposts, so as to have a single tag. Not purist, I prioritize cross-linking.

I also put a link-only blogpost in the gz blog, so as to apply the categories and tags of the gz blog.

— other observed missteps on the job

  • [dv] zed — One in a few hundred system alerts happened to be an important alert. I missed one. There’s a financial loss.
  • [dv] zed — My Manila young colleague had a bigger mistake
  • [v] Agilent — a Singaporean guy stormed out of the office after a heated argument with team lead
  • [v] Agilent — 2 India-nationality contractors made a mistake and then deleted the logs. Both fired.
  • [v] PWM — my technical oversight at month-end release causing some amount of commission payout to be delayed by a month
  • [v] PWM — time bomb in my ErrorMemos code
  • [v] PWM — Eric accidentally deleted a table in production
  • [v=highly visible]
  • [d=disaster in terms of (opportunity) cost]

— letter to an outside friend Zeng

This week I had a second breach of company compliance regarding personal stock trading. The first time was Q1 2020, slightly more serious, but perhaps compliance took a small part of the blame as they took too long to approve my account. On both occasions, my violation was reported (via email-cc) 5 levels up … from my manager to CTO.

The breach is about pre-clearance — For some stocks bought, I either forgot to seek approval or traded more than the approved limit. I didn’t feel like a convict. The amount this time round is below $100, but it’s a second offense. Receiving the compliance email, my recently promoted team lead called me and pointed out

  • I am taking it too lightly.
  • The compliance email briefly mentioned possible “monetary and non-monetary” disciplinary actions including bonus impact, but, as my team lead said, offenders could get fired for offenses like
  • .. sending out source code
  • .. sending out client information

I agreed with him 100% — if within 3Y my company has a cost reduction, then my compliance issues could be a perfect justification to single me out (severance not obligatory). Imagine if everyone has comparable performance and value-add, then this is an acceptable selection criterion. What a wake-up call. I will analyze it in terms of SWOT (Strength / Weakness / Opportunity / Threat).

Weakness: am not a star player, not even above average in my team. I see myself as vulnerable in a “cost reduction” situation.
.. Opportunity (minor): I can improve my value-add progressively. Even if it doesn’t really improve my vulnerability, it would build my self-esteem and reputation in the team. This kind of effort is often considered meaningless as in 内卷 (involution).

Weakness (minor): am older and slightly less in-demand on the job market, if I were forced to seek a new job, as Sachin.K was.
.. Strength: still confident about tech interviews. My skills are still relatively in-demand.
.. Strength (minor): I often forget that my degrees are well-recognized.
.. Opportunity: go back to the U.S. earlier (German.C), if the Singapore job market is unwelcoming or age-unfriendly.
.. Opportunity: convert this experience into motivation to improve IV competence

Weakness (minor): my wife has been a full-time mom. Am the sole breadwinner.
.. Strength: I have a cash reserve + low burn rate at the family level

Weakness: my trading style relies on many small trades, prone to this kind of breach. Also I don’t know any trading platform with limit check, but Rbh doesn’t.
.. Strength (minor): my trading style, on the flip side, tends to reduce amount of breach or trading loss

Threat: relying on the employer or particular managers … is always fragile and dicey 如履薄冰 — my long-standing perception of the reality. My compliance violations are minor in dollar amount and not a criminal offense, so I feel losing $10k of bonus (quite likely! Even $20k is possible.) or losing my job sounds like a gross overreaction, but those outcomes are not unthinkable because .. because the employer/manager is not caring and forgiving like our parents. On the global level, U.S. employers face fewer constraints than European employers in terms of layoff, but there are still many regulations protecting employees. (That’s why contract jobs are popular.) That’s why compliance violation provides a perfect justification for layoff without compensation. Now I come to the ultimate

Strength and Opportunity — build up self-reliance and  fortify it for the next 20Y, including interview competitiveness, wellness (stamina, stress-coping), strong family … Together they provide the ultimate protection for family livelihood. Any external support from the government, employer, charity (including friends) is valuable and “good-to-have” but not to be relied on in this case.

( In cases of systemic disasters, government support is the bedrock, such as pandemic, inflation … See ##fin protection: powerless against SOME blackSwans )

Since our last meet-up, my life has been too peaceful too comfortable, not sustainable. With a false sense of security, I have assumed I would stay in this company for 3Y-5Y. /Alas/, easy life always comes to an abrupt end. We always notice some worrying weaknesses, find new stressors, new threats… An easy life without challenges would be unrealistic and unhealthy, almost wasted (Burn/Rot). I have lived in a dream for a year, and this is a small but rude awakening.. 一盆冷水浇醒.

Tanko: strategic missteps #home upgrade

Posted on by tiger40490

See also

Most SG wealth management programs require SGD 200k, so I will use this sum as a starting point.  In my mental picture, many investors start with 200k risk capital (typically in their 30’s [1]) and slowly build up to 500k. Along the way, we all make gains and mistakes.

I guess many (90%?) of us become too aggressive too confident too complacent and take on too much risks, almost like gamblers (rather than prudent investors), and hit over-sized losses.

I feel I have been less unlucky so far, but how long can my luck last? I remind myself that my SEA properties may get into trouble.

[1] When I paid $180k for my first HDB, Tanko and ML.J were both surprised. Also, the 2020 OC survey found 2/3 of Singaporeans has savings insufficient for 6M. But this side question is a distraction on the current blogpost.

— Tanko on huge mistakes .. When I described wq.l’s low burn rate with 5 kids, and my $4k/M carefree life, Tanko felt that cash flow can *become* a stressor for himself and esp. for his brothers with modest-incomes, even though they both seem to be as frugal as Tanko. Tanko said they really need to be careful and avoid huge mistakes. I feel it’s very likely (more than many think) to commit huge mistakes due to strategic miscalculation (like a military mis-judgement).

Q1: what big mistakes have I experienced or seen in my family?
A: 1997 trading loss
A: Majestic Village
A: sister’s high personal debt
A: lawsuits like https://1330152open.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=15308&action=edit&classic-editor and sister’s ccard debt

Q2: any potential, hidden, missed pitfalls on my path ahead of behind ?

  • buy a luxury car (like 100k), which has no investment value and purely a consumption asset
  • How about my UChicago MSFM investment?
  • buy a luxury residence with low rental yield and high maintenance cost including pTax
  • career change of no-return. I think many techies become managers, unable to come back to hands-on jobs due to age, churn, IV-moat etc. This item is not directly relevant to net-asset, but career longevity is the real bedrock of my ffree, security of family livelihood

— free cash .. is breeding ground for strategic missteps. When you receive a windfall cash payout (inheritance, or selling a website like getrichslowly.org), the free cash is an example. But there are more common examples like bonus…

Many investment advisors start by asking how much free cash you have.

cash -> OA -> SA “top-up” actually prevents Singaporeans from wasting their hard-earned savings on wrong investments, including top schools and luxury private properties.

— pattern: big mistakes are often related to unreasonable desires

  • eg: if you have a 3k/m burn rate, but buy a 2M luxury residence (as in HK, Beijing or SG), it wipes out 50Y Fuller wealth in one go. This one mistake can sink you into low ground, and end your peaceful ezlife.
  • eg: a branded college would cost 300k. Two kids would cost USD 600k or about 20Y Fuller wealth.
  • eg: a school district home also costs a lot more than a regular home by $300k, but the extra $300k is often seen as investment.
  • eg: if you start taking drugs it could ruin your life
  • eg: if a married person starts having affairs, it could ruin a peaceful life, though many stories seem to present it as non-consequential.

realistic role models among us #CSY

Posted on by tiger40490

Hi Shanyou,

You said “我现在看周围的人，不是看他自己专业上干的怎么样，因为对绝大多数人干的再好也好不到哪里去” I totally agree. Looking around (including those Morgan Stanley EDs), I think 2% to 4% of my former colleagues/classmates are senior managers (above ED) in big companies across greater China (Not sure for how many years) and everyone else seems to be somewhere behind, in terms of salary.

Note the junior ED and Director in many ibanks are basically team leaders in charge of a few guys, but they are usually paid pretty well, around 200k.

Some specialists can probably earn more. But comparing salary is extremely touchy, irrational, unreliable, and not based on verifiable facts. We all try to be rational and philosophical about peer comparison. I wonder what is a simple, fair and realistic yardstick to see who among us can be a role model.

Obviously health and vitality, harmonious family, comfortable cash flow are basic foundations of “good life”, but what else?

In 2003 a friend of mine (Qi ChongLei) introduced to me his simple concept of “easy life” as a long-term personal goal. He is diligent and knowledgeable (now a senior manager in EBay China). Influenced by him, now I feel a simple yardstick is something like “bare-bones financial freedom to sustain an easy life“. My idea of “easy life” is more like “minimalist lifestyle”. I won’t elaborate, but those peers who don’t need to work are the luckiest even if their lifestyle becomes minimalist. Call them Group A.

If that’s impossible, then some peers can take any simple low-paying job and still live a simple-yet-comfortable life. Low-paying like pretax 50k / year. I think these peers are very lucky simply because they are free to take a break any time. These peers probably hit Level two of 6 levels@ffree #US perspective . I now feel these are the realistic role models. Call them Group A-.

I assume most of us are not in Group A or A-. Perhaps you know someone in Group A- but he may not feel that way about his life.

And then, there’s group F — many peers actually struggle on the “foundation” level — failed marriage; serious chronic illness; problem kids (Note academically mediocre kids like my son are fine kids) ….

A friend has such limited marketable skills that he can’t find any other job so he has to accept shitty tasks imposed by his boss, and work under constant pressure. Another friend is forced to work 7 full days a week. I said this is illegal. He said the U.S. labor law doesn’t really protect him, due to legal cost, legal evidence … Even if he wins he would lose his job soon.

I have more than one close friend who have only three-digit savings and/or heavy debt. High interest payments. Uncomfortable cash flow.

I classify these guys as Group F, perhaps unfair to them. Some of these individuals might have some level of financial success (even freedom) but not my role model. Financial freedom is the wrong priority, the most important but not the dominant criteria for a role-model.

— my top strengths in SelfMgmt, as I told grandpa in a 2019 call from Bayonne

AAA cash flow - burn rate including debt
A   cash flow - passive income
A-  cash flow - 30Y balance sheet mgmt
AA  #1) cash flow
AA  tech IV - QQ
A-  tech IV - algo @WallSt
A   #2) tech IV
A-  #3) wellness

Each is an extremely important strength. ( Some of them are probably viewed as competitive “advantages”. )
I only need to be really good at one of them to be rather successful.

However, in reality I’m “generally good” not “gr8” at any.

They each provide a cushion/buffer against the “blows” in our lives. No perfectionist please — No cushion can be perfect as life is full of adversities and setbacks.