radical simplicity: recreational MOETF #Ewen.Chia

Context: At end of the Affiliate Marketing Essentials course, after listening to Ewen Chia’s 20-minute elegant presentation I was struck by its radical simplicity. I realized there’s a similar radical simplicity in my recreational MOETF investing. I stumbled on this system after decades of investing in FSM.

Similar to Ewen Chia — we strip away lots of mainstream complexities
Similar to Ewen Chia — the system works, for whatever reasons.

This blogpost is about MOETF. So (now in Oct 2021) I will summarize the key features into a phrasebook, half-ranked by importance

[r=radical simplicity]
[v=vague but important guideline]

  • [v] steadfast focus on firewall
  • .. stay away from volatile hot assets like bccy
  • [v] steadfast focus on recreational [joy, learning]
  • [r] buy-n-forget .. vs babysitting
  • [r] .. Don’t care about exit timing. 3Y holding plan, and my definition of liquidity
  • focus first on DYOC .. vs NAV growth, which is harder to assess.
  • [r] .. refuse to benchmark against SP500
  • [r] incremental buy with fractional orders
  • [r] 3m due diligence .. buy without fear. No steep learning curve
  • 200-stock diversified MOETF .. vs ETF

my take on FIRE

update: FIRE doesn’t pay enough attention to disasters…

There are countless (too many) online discussions of FIRE, largely in the U.S. context, and largely among younger bloggers (See https://www.forbes.com/advisor/retirement/the-9-fire-blogs-you-should-read/).

I find the discussions less relevant to my situation, given my limited bandwidth, but I remind myself to never dismiss inputs from young people or inputs from other cultures. Once a while, I could find relevant pointers, perhaps in car choice and college choice.

— peers influence

In the U.S. I will be surrounded by Chinese and Indian peers. They represent a negative influence on me in terms of FOMO (kiasu, consumerism).

Similarly, I think my wife felt a form of pressure living in Newport among the rich and educated white-collar young moms.

With my unconventional choices, my journey would be a lonely journey, unless I find like-minded and rational voices in the FIRE discussions. Those who write a lot (like the bloggers) tend to be fairly rational like me.

defenses (financial++)? Largely missing from FIRE discussions, various defenses (cushions, buffers, shields) form the bulk of my planning. The rest of my planning covers popular, mainstream topics like savings rate, nonwork income, brbr,,, These topics does relate to my defenses but my focus on defenses is not shared by the FIRE discussions.

The bedrock of my defenses, the bedrock of my financial planning is career longevity — FIR-End@life.

— parenting cost — is seldom discussed. An elephant in the room.
— withdrawal rate — is present in CPF-life, not in my current FIRE planning.
— Social security — is less reliable than CPF
— Malaysia — (and China) is a viable option for my wife and me, if our long-term planning turns out less successful than anticipated.
homesteading is most popular in the U.S. but not every early retiree likes it
— healthcare — is country-specific. The U.S. discussions (not a lot) is largely irrelevant.
Beside the long-term costs and the major hospitalization costs, every outpatient medical cost can add up a lot

–Inflation — is a key risk missing in some FIRE discussions.

Gold can offer effective protection, but is seldom discussed. I think the FIRE guys may dislike the carry cost

U.S. inflation is higher than Sg.

— stocks — is a prominent feature of the FIRE discussions. I think many of my U.S. friends also rely largely on stock portfolio. Most of them rely on index ETF.

Worth learning.

— alpha males: MMM, Jacob (ERE) and the leading FIRE bloggers are all alpha males with

  • health
  • intelligence, talent
  • education, wide-ranging practical knowledge mostly self-acquired
  • mental and physical energy, endurance
  • formidable intellectual resource to compensate for whatever financial resources they have accumulated.

In contrast, the regular guy has much less capacity to pull it off.